Last Updated Apr 27, 2022, 19:05 PM
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions, Picks, Odds
Sports Betting Expert
Monday’s First Round NBA Playoff action will conclude with a heavyweight Western Conference bout between the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors. Game 2 coverage begins from Chase Center in San Francisco at 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT.
Warriors 114, Nuggets 106
Under 224.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions
After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with an impressive 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run – with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.
However, the Warriors are far less dominant without the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering Golden State closed the regular season with a relatively pedestrian 35-25 SU and 26-31-3 ATS stretch – with the majority of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).
On the other hand, Denver posted a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Nuggets kicked things off with a lackluster 20-19 SU and 16-23 ATS stretch – while averaging just 105.6 OPPG across that window.
The Nuggets have played excellent since the midway point of January though, considering Denver enters Game 2 riding a sturdy 28-16 SU and 20-23-1 ATS run – while averaging a lofty 118.9 OPPG during that timeframe.
I’ll take the under here, as the Warriors scored 123 PTS on 52% FG and 46% 3FG during their double-digit victory over Denver in Game 1 (123-109), and while Golden State should ultimately still win Monday’s contest, I doubt we’ll see quite as many three-pointers fall in Game 2.
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources
- Matchup: Northwest vs. Pacific
- Date: Monday, April 18
- Venue: Chase Center
- Location: San Francisco, CA
- TV-Time: TNT - 10:00 p.m. ET
- Injury Report
- NBA Playoff Betting Central
Denver Nuggets Betting Analysis
- SU: 48-35
- ATS: 36-46-1
- O/U: 45-36-2
Despite the year-long absence of Jamal Murray, Denver still strung together an admirable 2021-22 campaign, considering the Nuggets finished sixth in the West with a record of 48-34 SU, which fell just one game behind the fifth-seeded Jazz – and four games behind the fourth-seeded Mavericks.
The Nuggets still encountered their fair share of additional health issues throughout the year, primarily highlighted by the season-ending injury to their tertiary scoring option, Michael Porter Jr.
However, Denver still boasts solid numbers at both ends of the floor, considering the Nuggets rank fifth in the league in offensive efficiency (1.113 OE) and 16th in defensive efficiency (1.090 DE) on the year – which comfortably ranks alongside other offensive powerhouses such as the Nets (1.098 OE, 1.090 DE) and Bucks (1.118 OE, 1.085 DE).
Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis
- SU: 54-29
- ATS: 42-37-4
- O/U: 36-45-2
After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State inevitably returned with a chip on its shoulder to start this season, as Golden State kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games – with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.
However, Golden State’s success has primarily come through defense since mid-December, considering the Warriors enter Game 2 riding a bumpy 27-31-3 ATS skid, while scoring 111.6 OPPG and allowing just 107.7 DPPG during that timeframe.
The Warriors’ mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, highlighted by Golden State averaging roughly 115 OPPG across their 33 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return.
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head
The Warriors won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Denver last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 218.7 PPG. However, Denver went 3-1 SU against Golden State this season, with two of those matchups staying well under the total at an average of 195 PPG, while the other two cruised over at an average of 244 PPG. The Warriors stomped Denver by 16 in Saturday’s series-opener though, which also went over with a score of 123-107 (O 223).
Key Players to Watch
- DEN: Nikola Jokic - C (27.1 PPG, 13.8 REB, 7.9 AST)
- DEN: Aaron Gordon - PF (15 PPG, 5.9 REB, 2.9 AST)
- GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
- GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (20.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST)
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion
I’ll take the under here, as Golden State was phenomenal offensively in Game 1, considering the Warriors racked up 123 PTS on 52% FG and 46% 3FG during their commanding victory in Saturday’s series-opener, and while Golden State should ultimately emerge victorious again Monday, I think we’ll get a pair of inspired defensive efforts and a much lower point-total in Game 2.
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends
- The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
- The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
- The total has gone OVER in ten of the last 14 Nuggets' games.
- The total has gone UNDER in ten of the last 15 matchups between the Nuggets and Warriors.
- The Nuggets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 matchups against Golden State.