Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

First Round NBA Playoff action will resume on Tuesday night with a Game 2 showdown between Southeast Division rivals in the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from FTX Arena in Miami at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

Score Prediction

Heat 109, Hawks 101

Best Bets

Under 217.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Predictions

After falling to Milwaukee in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Atlanta stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start to this season, as the Hawks opened with a frustrating 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS skid – despite getting tagged as favorites in 25 of those matchups.

Atlanta has played solid, yet inconsistent basketball since mid-January though, considering the Hawks closed out the regular season with a sturdy 29-14 SU and 25-19 ATS run – while yielding lofty averages of 116.5 OPPG and 112.8 DPPG across that window.

On the other hand, Miami posted a triumphant start to the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch – with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), the Heat carried that same momentum all the way to the finish line, considering Miami boasts impressive records of 40-18 SU and 33-24-1 ATS across their last 58 games – while ranking fifth in the league in defensive efficiency and 11^th in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.099 OE, 1.055 DE).

I’ll take the under here, as the Heat scored 115 PTS on 52% FG and 47% 3FG during their blowout win over Atlanta in Game 1 (115-91, U 220), and while Miami should ultimately emerge victorious again in Tuesday’s contest, I doubt we’ll see quite as many shots fall in Game 2.

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

• Matchup: Southeast
• Date: Tuesday, April 19
• Venue: FTX Arena
• Location: Miami, FL
• TV-Time: TNT - 7:30 p.m. ET
• Injury Report
• NBA Playoff Betting Central

Atlanta Hawks Betting Analysis

• SU: 45-40
• ATS: 37-46
• O/U: 43-40

The Hawks were inevitably cursed with lofty expectations after last year’s impressive Eastern Conference Finals run; however, Atlanta struggled miserably out of the gate, as Atlanta dropped 26-of-41 matchups to start the regular season, despite getting tagged as underdogs in just 15 of those contests.

Atlanta has been on quite the rollercoaster since January though, considering the Hawks enter Game 2 riding a sturdy 29-15 SU and 25-20 ATS stretch, despite ranking 21^st in the league in points allowed and 26^th in defensive efficiency on the year (112.3 DPPG, 1.113 DE).

However, Atlanta has played solid defense since the conclusion of the regular season, considering the Hawks have allowed just 106.3 DPPG on a 1.062 defensive efficiency rating across their three postseason matchups.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

• SU: 54-29
• ATS: 47-35-1
• O/U: 49-34

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish, the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions in order to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

The transition was seamless at first, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with Miami’s only ATS losses across that span coming in tough matchups against the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, and Celtics.

However, the depth that Miami sacrificed to acquire Lowry was briefly exposed back in December, considering a revolving door of health issues briefly spiraled Miami into a worrisome 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid. Depth wasn’t much of a problem down the homestretch though, considering Miami closed out the regular season with a sturdy 39-18 SU, 32-24-1 ATS run.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

The Hawks won two of three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with the first two contests staying well under the total at an average of 191 PPG, while the third cruised over with a score of 118-103 (O 212). However, the Heat went 3-1 SU against Atlanta this season, with two of those matchups soaring over the total at an average of 230 PPG, while the other two stayed under at 214 PPG. Atlanta also dropped Game 1 by an ugly score of 115-91, which stayed well under the total of OU 220.

Key Players to Watch

• ATL: Trae Young - PG (28.4 PPG, 3.7 REB, 9.7 AST)
• ATL: Clint Capela - C (11.1 PPG, 11.9 REB, 1.3 BLK)
• MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
• MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (19.1 PPG, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST)

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

After stomping Atlanta by 24 in Sunday afternoon’s series-opener (W, 115-91), the Heat enter Tuesday’s second matchup favored by roughly eight points over the Hawks at FTX Arena – which is slightly heavier than number Miami was favored by in Game 1 (MIA -6.5).

I’ll take the under here, as the Hawks are 2-1 SU and ATS since the start of the Play-In Tournament, while generating 110 OPPG and allowing just 106.3 DPPG during that span – setting the stage for a hard-fought defensive battle against a Heat squad that ranked third in the league in points allowed and fifth in defensive efficiency on the year (105.4 DPPG, 1.055 DE).

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

• The Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
• The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
• The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last eight Hawks' games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of the last six Heat' games.
• The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against Miami.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson