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Apr 20, 2022

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Predictions, Picks, Odds

First Round NBA Playoff action will resume on Thursday night with a crucial Game 3 between the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz. Game 3 coverage begins from Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City at 9:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV.

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Score Prediction

Jazz 116, Mavericks 104

Best Bets

Jazz -6 (-110) at FanDuel

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Predictions

After earning the top spot in the West with a record of 52-20 last year, Utah briefly sustained that same level of excellence with another dominant start to this season, as the Jazz opened with a triumphant 26-9 SU and 17-17-2 ATS run – with 20 of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Utah has been on quite the injury rollercoaster since mid-January though, considering the Jazz closed out the regular season with a bumpy 23-24 SU and 17-28-2 ATS stretch – with a massive chunk of those SU losses coming in the absence of Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert (10).

On the other hand, Dallas stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a lackluster 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid – with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Dallas has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks enter Game 3 riding an impressive 37-13 SU and 32-18 ATS stretch – while surrendering just 104.6 DPPG to their opponents during that timeframe.

I’ll back Utah here, as the Jazz are 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS in their last six matchups at Vivint Arena, while scoring 121.8 OPPG and allowing 106.3 DPPG during that span – likely presenting an uphill battle for a Mavs’ squad that’s 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight road games. 

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Odds

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Resources

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 53-31
  • ATS: 47-36-1
  • O/U: 32-51-1

After another disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas briefly kept that same ball rolling with a similarly slow start to this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a lackluster 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch – with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, the Mavs’ success primarily came through defense down the homestretch, considering Dallas is 37-13 SU across their last 50 games – despite averaging just 109.7 OPPG across that window.

Utah Jazz Betting Analysis

  • SU: 50-34
  • ATS: 34-46-4
  • O/U: 38-44-2

The Jazz have been one of the most consistent squads in the West across the last few regular seasons, which is no fluke, considering Utah continuously maintains a very well-balanced attack, highlighted by Donovan Mitchell and company ranking first in the league in offensive efficiency and eighth in defensive efficiency on the year (1.130 OE, 1.071 DE).

However, Utah’s consistency quickly fades without the combined presence of Mitchell and Gobert, considering the Jazz’ top-ranked offensive attack closed the regular season with a frustrating 23-24 SU skid – while scoring just 111.6 OPPG and surrendering 108.9 DPPG during that timeframe.

The total has gone UNDER in six of the last nine matchups between Utah and Dallas. (Getty Images)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Head-to-Head

Utah won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Dallas last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 218.3 PPG. However, Utah and Dallas split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with both Jazz’ victories going over the total at an average of 229.5 PPG – while both Mavericks’ wins stayed under with an average of 214 PPG. 

The Jazz and Mavs’ split their previous two matchups of this series in Dallas 1-1 SU though, with Game 1 staying under the total at a score of 99-93 (U 208.5), while Game 2 cruised over with a score of 110-104 (O 206).

Key Players to Watch

  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)
  • DAL: Maxi Kleber - PF (vs. UTA 4/18 | 25 PTS, 6 REB, 8-11 3FG)
  • UTA: Donovan Mitchell - SG (25.9 PPG, 4.2 REB, 5.3 AST)
  • UTA: Rudy Gobert - C (15.6 PPG, 14.7 REB, 2.1 BLK)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Conclusion

After evening up the series with a 110-104 road victory in Game 2, the Mavericks hit the road for Thursday’s third matchup as six-point road underdogs against the Jazz at Vivint Arena – which is roughly the same number Utah was favored by in Games 1 and 2 (UTA -5.5).

I’ll back Utah here, as the Mavericks are 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight road games despite Luka Doncic’s presence in all eight of those contests, which makes for tough sledding against a Jazz squad that’s 5-1 SU in their last six matchups at Vivint Arena. 

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last ten games.
  • The Jazz are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the last nine Mavs' games.
  • The Mavs' are 6-1 ATS in their last seven matchups against Utah.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last nine matchups between Utah and Dallas.
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