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Last Updated Apr 29, 2022, 16:45 PM

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions, Picks, Odds

Saturday’s slate of First Round NBA Playoff action will conclude with a pivotal Game 4 showdown between the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves. Coverage begins from Target Center in Minneapolis at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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Score Prediction

Grizzlies 118, Timberwolves 109

Best Bets

Grizzlies -3 (-110) at Caesars

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions

After finishing eighth in the West with a record of 38-34 SU last year, Memphis briefly maintained that same lackluster pace with another mediocre start to this season, as the Grizzlies opened with a relatively pedestrian 9-10 SU and 10-9 ATS skid, with nine of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Memphis has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since that opening skid, considering the Grizzlies closed out the regular season with an impressive 47-16 SU and 42-20-1 ATS run – while tallying 117.4 OPPG and allowing just 108.1 DPPG across that stretch.

On the other hand, Minnesota posted a similarly disappointing start to the season, as the Timberwolves kicked things off with a lackluster 11-15 SU skid – while averaging just 107.7 OPPG during that timeframe.

Minnesota has admirably flipped the script since mid-December though, considering the Wolves enter Game 4 riding a sturdy 37-23 SU stretch – while yielding lofty averages of 118.8 OPPG and 116.8 DPPG across that window.

I’ll back the Grizzlies here, as aside from the Wolves’ scorching hot first-quarter performance to open Game 3 (54% FG, 57% 3FG, +18 PTS), Memphis absolutely dominated Games 2 and 3 of this series, highlighted by the Grizzlies pacing Minnesota by a 55-point margin across the remaining seven stanzas of those matchups, and Saturday’s affair should be no different.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Resources

Memphis Grizzlies Betting Analysis

  • SU: 58-27
  • ATS: 54-30-1
  • O/U: 44-40-1

After finishing eighth in the West with a record of 38-34 SU last year, the Grizzlies briefly flew under the radar with a 9-10 SU start to this season, which inevitably led to Memphis getting tagged as underdogs in seven-of-ten matchups to open December. However, Memphis quickly stole the spotlight with a trio of upset victories and recorded a sturdy 7-3 SU record across that stretch.

Memphis has been scorching hot since that stretch though, considering the Grizzlies enter Game 4 riding an impressive 49-17 SU and 44-21-1 ATS run, while racking up 117.3 OPPG and allowing just 108 DPPG during that timeframe.

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Analysis

  • SU: 48-38
  • ATS: 43-40-2
  • O/U: 51-34

After last year’s lackluster 23-49 SU showing, Minnesota initially kept the frustration train rolling with another lackluster to this season, as the Timberwolves kicked things off with a miserable 11-15 SU and ATS skid, with nine of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Minnesota has played incredibly inspired basketball since that point, considering Minnesota enters Game 4 riding a surprisingly solid 37-23 SU and 33-25-2 ATS stretch, while ranking 11th in the league in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency across that window (1.102 OE, 1.080 DE).

The Grizzlies are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 matchups against Minnesota. (Getty Images)

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Head-to-Head

The Grizzlies swept a three-game regular-season set against Minnesota last year, with the first and third matchups soaring over the total at a lofty average of 249.5 PPG, while their second meeting stayed under with a score of 120-108 (U 232).

However, Memphis and Minnesota split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with the first two matchups soaring over the total at an average of 238 PPG, while the ensuing two affairs stayed under at 228.5 PPG. The Wolves quickly gained an edge in this series with a commanding 130-117 victory in Game 1 (O 238), which the Grizzlies promptly countered with a dominant win of their own in Game 2 (124-96, U 239.5).

Game 3 unfolded much differently though, as the Wolves jumped out to an enormous 18-point lead in the first quarter of Thursday’s matchup, only to have Memphis completely erase that advantage and win the contest by a comfortable nine-point margin (104-95, U 238).

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Key Players to Watch

  • MEM: Ja Morant - PG (27.4 PPG, 5.7 REB, 6.7 AST)
  • MEM: Desmond Bane - SF (18.2 PPG, 4.4 REB, 2.7 AST)
  • MIN: Karl-Anthony Towns - C (24.6 PPG, 9.8 REB, 3.6 AST)
  • MIN: Anthony Edwards - SG (21.3 PPG, 4.8 REB, 3.8 AST)

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Conclusion

After blowing an 18-point lead at home in Game 3 this past Thursday (L, 104-95), the Wolves enter Saturday’s fourth matchup as three-point home underdogs against the visiting Grizzlies, which is roughly the same number Memphis was favored by in Game 3 (MEM -2.5).

I’ll back Memphis here, as Minnesota has consistently shown flashes of life throughout this series; but when push came to shove, the Wolves had nothing for Memphis’ fourth-ranked defense (1.051 DE), highlighted by the Grizzlies smothering Minnesota to 19 PTS or less in four-of-eight quarters across Games 2 and 3 (95.6 PPG).

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Trends

  • The Grizzlies are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games.
  • The Wolves are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Grizzlies are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 matchups against Minnesota.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last nine Wolves' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five matchups between Memphis and Minnesota.
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