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Last Updated Apr 27, 2022, 02:59 AM

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Picks, Odds

First Round NBA Playoff action will resume on Tuesday night with Game 5 between Southeast Division Rivals as the Atlanta Hawks try to stay alive against the Miami Heat. Coverage begins from FTX Arena at 7:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV.

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Score Prediction

Heat 114, Hawks 102

Best Bets

Heat -7 (-110) at Caesars

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Predictions

After falling to Milwaukee in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Atlanta stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start to this season, as the Hawks opened with a frustrating 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 25 of those matchups.

Atlanta has played solid, yet inconsistent basketball since mid-January though, considering the Hawks closed the regular season with a sturdy 29-14 SU and 24-19 ATS run – while yielding lofty averages of 116.5 OPPG and 112.8 DPPG across that window.

On the other hand, Miami absolutely dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami carried that same momentum all the way to the postseason, considering Miami enters Game 5 riding an impressive 41-19 SU stretch, while ranking fifth in the league in defensive efficiency and tenth in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.102 OE, 1.055 DE).

I’ll back the Heat here, as the Hawks have posted records of 17-27 SU and 14-30 ATS on the road this year, which includes a pair of ugly double-digit losses in Miami to open this series, setting the stage for another unfavorable road matchup against a Heat squad that’s 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five home games.

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

Atlanta Hawks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 46-42
  • ATS: 38-48
  • O/U: 43-43

The Hawks were inevitably cursed with high expectations after last year’s impressive Eastern Conference Finals run; however, Atlanta struggled miserably out of the gate, as Trae Young and company dropped 26-of-41 matchups to open the season, despite getting tagged as favorites in 26 of those contests.

Atlanta has been on quite the rollercoaster since January though, considering the Hawks enter Game 5 riding a modest 30-17 SU and 25-22 ATS stretch, despite crossing the regular-season finish line ranked 21st in the league in points allowed and 26th in defensive efficiency (112.2 DPPG, 1.112 DE).

However, Atlanta has played solid defense since the start of the Play-In Tournament, considering the Hawks have allowed just 109 DPPG on a 44.8 FG% across their six postseason matchups.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 56-30
  • ATS: 49-36-1
  • O/U: 49-37

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish, the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

The transition was seamless at first, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with all but two of those SU victories coming by double-digits.

However, the depth that Miami sacrificed to acquire Lowry was briefly exposed back in December, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled Miami into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid. Depth hasn’t been much of an issue down the stretch though, considering Miami enters Game 5 riding a sturdy 41-19 SU and 34-25-1 ATS stretch.

The total has gone UNDER in five straight matchups between Miami and Atlanta. (Getty Images)

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

The Hawks won two of three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with the first two contests staying well under the total at an average of 191 PPG, while the third cruised over with a score of 118-103 (O 212).

However, the Heat went 3-1 SU against Atlanta this season, with two of those matchups soaring over the total at an average of 230 PPG, while the other two stayed under at 214 PPG.

The Hawks also dropped the first two matchups of this series in Miami, with both contests staying well under the total at an average of 213 PPG. Atlanta came charging back with a thrilling home win in Game 3 though (111-110, U 222); however, reality quickly settled in during Game 4, as the Heat took a commanding 3-1 lead with a 110-86 victory at State Farm Arena this past Sunday (U 220).

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Key Players to Watch

  • ATL: Trae Young - PG (28.4 PPG, 3.7 REB, 9.7 AST)
  • ATL: John Collins - PF (16.2 PPG, 7.8 REB, 1.8 AST)
  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (19.1 PPG, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST)

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

After getting stomped at home in Game 4 this past Sunday (L, 110-86), the Hawks hit the road for Tuesday’s Game 5 as 7.5-point underdogs against the Heat at FTX Arena, which falls right between the numbers Miami was favored by in Games 1 and 2 of this series (MIA -6.5, MIA -8).

I’ll back the Heat here, as Miami boasts impressive records of 31-12 SU and 23-30 ATS at home on the year, which includes a pair of commanding double-digit victories to open this series, likely presenting an uphill battle for a Hawks squad that’s 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 road games.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • The Hawks are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six straight Hawks' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last six Heat' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five straight matchups between Miami and Atlanta.
  • The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against Miami.
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