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Last Updated May 01, 2022, 14:59 PM

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions, Picks, Odds

First Round NBA Playoff action will resume on Friday night with Game 6 between Western Conference foes as the Minnesota Timberwolves try to stay alive against the Memphis Grizzlies. Coverage begins from Target Center in Minneapolis at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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Score Prediction

Grizzlies 112, Timberwolves 109

Best Bets

Under 229 (-110) at Caesars

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions

After finishing eighth in the West with a record of 38-34 SU last year, Memphis briefly sustained that same lackluster pace with a mediocre start to this season, as the Grizzlies opened with a relatively pedestrian 9-10 SU and 10-9 ATS skid, with nine of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Memphis has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since that opening skid, considering the Grizzlies boast impressive records of 50-18 SU and 44-23-1 ATS run, while tallying 117.2 OPPG and allowing just 108.2 DPPG across that stretch.

On the other hand, Minnesota also posted a disappointing start to the season, as the Timberwolves kicked things off with a lackluster 11-15 SU skid, while averaging just 107.7 OPPG during that timeframe.

Minnesota has admirably flipped the script since mid-December though, considering the Wolves enter Game 6 riding a sturdy 38-24 SU stretch, while yielding lofty averages of 118.6 OPPG and 116.7 DPPG across that window.

I’ll take the under here, as the total has gone under in three of the last four matchups in this series at an average of 219 PPG, and while Memphis and Minnesota still stand as two of the most explosive offenses in the league, I think we’ll see both squads continue to prioritize defense down the homestretch.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Resources

Memphis Grizzlies Betting Analysis

  • SU: 58-28
  • ATS: 54-31-1
  • O/U: 45-40-1

After finishing eighth in the West with a record of 38-34 SU last year, the Grizzlies briefly flew under the radar with a 9-10 SU start to this season, which inevitably led to Memphis getting tagged as underdogs in seven-of-ten matchups to open December. However, Memphis quickly stole the spotlight with a trio of upset victories and posted a sturdy 7-3 SU record across that stretch.

Memphis has been scorching hot since that stretch though, considering the Grizzlies enter Friday’s Game 6 riding an impressive 50-18 SU and 44-23-1 ATS run, while racking up 117.2 OPPG and allowing just 108.2 DPPG during that timeframe.

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Analysis

  • SU: 49-38
  • ATS: 44-40-2
  • O/U: 52-34

After last year’s lackluster 23-49 SU showing, Minnesota initially kept the frustration train rolling with another lackluster to this season, as the Timberwolves kicked things off with a miserable 11-15 SU and ATS skid, with nine of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Minnesota has played incredibly inspired basketball since that point, considering Minnesota enters Game 6 riding a surprisingly solid 38-24 SU and 35-25-2 ATS stretch, while ranking 11th in the league in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency across that window (1.102 OE, 1.080 DE).

The Grizzlies are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 matchups against Minnesota. (Getty Images)

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Head-to-Head

The Grizzlies swept a three-game regular-season set against Minnesota last year, with the first and third matchups soaring over the total at a lofty average of 249.5 PPG, while their second meeting stayed under with a score of 120-108 (U 232).

However, Memphis and Minnesota split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with the first two matchups soaring over the total at an average of 238 PPG, while the ensuing two affairs stayed under at 228.5 PPG.

The Wolves quickly gained an edge in this series with a commanding 130-117 victory in Game 1 (O 238), which Memphis promptly countered with a dominant win of its own in Game 2 (124-96, U 239.5).

The following two matchups unfolded much differently though, as the Wolves jumped out to an enormous 18-point lead in the first quarter of Game 3, only to have Memphis completely erase that deficit and win the contest by a comfortable nine-point margin (104-95, U 238). However, Minnesota bounced back with a narrow 119-118 victory at home in Game 4 (O 232), evening this series at two games apiece.

Game 5 between these teams in Memphis also went down to the wire, as Ja Morant weaved through Minnesota’s defense for a last-second layup to seal a thrilling 111-109 victory and give the Grizzlies a 3-2 lead (U 231).

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Key Players to Watch

  • MEM: Ja Morant - PG (27.4 PPG, 5.7 REB, 6.7 AST)
  • MEM: Desmond Bane - SF (18.2 PPG, 4.4 REB, 2.7 AST)
  • MIN: Karl-Anthony Towns - C (24.6 PPG, 9.8 REB, 3.6 AST)
  • MIN: Anthony Edwards - SG (21.3 PPG, 4.8 REB, 3.8 AST)

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Conclusion

After taking a 3-2 lead with a thrilling home win in Game 5 this past Tuesday (W, 111-109), the Grizzlies hit the road for Friday’s sixth matchup as one-point favorites over the Timberwolves at Target Center, which is slightly shorter than the number Memphis was favored by on the road in Game 5 (MIN +2).

I’ll take the under here, as the Wolves are 2-1 SU and ATS in their three home matchups since the start of the Play-In Tournament, while scoring 107.7 OPPG and allowing 108.7 DPPG during that span, setting the stage for a low-scoring elimination game against the Grizzlies’ fourth ranked defensive unit (109.9 DPPG, 1.051 DE).

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Trends

  • The Grizzlies are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Wolves are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Grizzlies are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games.
  • The Grizzlies are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 matchups against Minnesota.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six Grizzlies' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven matchups between Memphis and Minnesota.

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