Last Updated May 02, 2022, 2:47 PM

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Predictions, Odds, Picks

Second Round NBA Playoff action will begin on Sunday afternoon with a blockbuster Game 1 showdown between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. Coverage begins from Boston’s TD Garden at 1:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Score Prediction

Celtics 108, Bucks 104

Best Bets

Under 217.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same lethargic pace with another mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since mid-January, considering the Celtics are surrendering just 103.3 DPPG across their latest 40-11 SU stretch, which includes an average of 109 DPPG across their four-game sweep of Brooklyn in the previous round.

On the other hand, Milwaukee posted a surprisingly poor start to the season, as the Bucks kicked things off with a lackluster 6-8 SU and ATS skid, with four of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, the Bucks have quietly dominated since their brief opening skid, considering Milwaukee enters Game 1 riding a sturdy 50-24 SU and 36-38 ATS run, while yielding lofty averages of 116.6 OPPG and 112 DPPG across that window, despite averaging just 109.8 OPPG and 95.2 DPPG throughout their first-round matchup against Chicago.

I’ll take the under here, as the Bucks averaged 110.3 OPPG and allowed 105.2 DPPG across last year’s impressive NBA title run, which was very similar to the pace of Milwaukee’s first-round matchup against Chicago this postseason (109.8 OPPG, 95.2 DPPG), setting the stage for a hard-fought defensive battle against the Celtics’ top-ranked defense (104.7 DPPG, 1.040 DE).

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds

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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Resources

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 55-32
  • ATS: 42-45
  • O/U: 43-44

After finishing with the best record in the East in two of the last three seasons, Milwaukee’s rough start was somewhat of a head-scratcher, considering the Bucks’ compiled a record of 162-65 SU across the previous three regular seasons, only to open this season with a lackluster 6-8 SU skid.

Milwaukee has played excellent, when healthy, since mid-November though, considering the Bucks enter Sunday’s series-opener riding a sturdy 50-24 SU stretch, with a massive chunk of those losses coming in the absence of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (8).

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 55-31
  • ATS: 48-37-1
  • O/U: 42-42-2

After last year’s mediocre 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly lackluster start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a head-scratching 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has completely flipped the script since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Sunday’s contest riding a red-hot 40-11 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 28 of those contests (114.3 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 21 of them (103.3 DPPG).

The Bucks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven matchups against Boston. (Getty Images)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Head-to-Head

The Celtics won two of three regular-season matchups against Milwaukee last year, with all three contests soaring over the total at an average of 239.7 PPG.

However, Boston and Milwaukee split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with three of those matchups cruising over the total at an average of 237.7 PPG, while one contest stayed under with a score of 117-103 (U 223).

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Key Players to Watch

  • MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF (29.9 PPG, 11.6 REB, 5.8 AST)
  • MIL: Jrue Holiday - PG (18.3 PPG, 4.5 REB, 6.8 AST)
  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Conclusion

After kicking off the postseason with an impressive first-round sweep of Brooklyn, the Celtics return home for Sunday’s second-round series-opener as five-point favorites over the Bucks at TD Garden, which is roughly the same number Boston was favored by in Game 1 against the Nets (BKN +4.5).

I’ll take the under here, as the total went under in seven of nine first-round playoff matchups containing Boston or Milwaukee at an average of 212.8 PPG, and while OU 217 is the lowest bar set for a postseason contest containing either of these teams, I still lean towards the under in Sunday’s series-opener between two of the best defenses in the league.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in five straight Bucks' games.
  • The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the last 16 Celtics' games.
  • The Bucks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven matchups against Boston.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the last nine matchups between Boston and Milwaukee.

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