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Last Updated May 08, 2022, 19:44 PM

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Friday night with a pivotal Game 3 between the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers. Coverage begins from Wells Fargo Center in South Philly at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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Score Prediction

Sixers 104, Heat 101

Best Bets

Under 210.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Predictions

After earning the top spot in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Sixers opened with a lackluster 16-16 SU and 13-18-1 ATS stretch, while averaging just 105.4 OPPG during that span.

However, the Sixers quickly flipped the script with a string of excellent defensive efforts, considering Philadelphia is allowing just 107.5 DPPG across its latest 39-19 SU stretch, which includes an average of 103.2 DPPG in their first-round playoff series against Toronto, and 112.5 DPPG across Games 1 and 2 against Miami.

On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from their brief nine-game December skid (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), the Heat have carried that same momentum all the way to the second round of the postseason, considering Miami enters Game 3 riding an impressive 44-19 SU and 36-26-1 ATS stretch, while ranking fifth in the league in defensive efficiency and ninth in offensive efficiency on the year (1.103 OE, 1.052 DE).

I’ll take the under here, as Joel Embiid’s return should ultimately slow down the pace of this series, setting the stage for a hard-fought defensive battle in Game 3 between a Heat squad that’s surrendered 105 PTS or less in six-of-seven postseason contests (97.4 DPPG), and a Sixers squad that’s allowed just 103.2 DPPG across eight playoff matchups.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Odds

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Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Southeast vs. Atlantic
  • Date: Friday, May 6, 2022
  • Venue: Wells Fargo Center
  • Location: Philadelphia, PA
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Injury Report

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 59-30
  • ATS: 51-37-1
  • O/U: 50-39

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish (40-32 SU), the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by their acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

Everything worked perfectly at first, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with all but two of those SU victories coming by double-digits.

However, the depth Miami sacrificed was briefly exposed in December, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled Miami into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid. Depth hasn’t been much of a concern for them recently though, considering the Heat have posted SU victories in 44 of their last 63 matchups, which includes sturdy postseason records of 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS.

Philadelphia 76ers Betting Analysis

  • SU: 55-35
  • ATS: 41-47-2
  • O/U: 41-46-3

After finishing first in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia posted a surprisingly slow start to this season, as the Sixers went 16-16 SU across their first 32 games, while averaging just 105.4 OPPG across that window.

However, Embiid single-handedly carried Philadelphia through the winter months, considering the Sixers closed the regular season with a solid 35-15 SU and 25-24-1 ATS run, propelled by the five-time All-Star averaging 32.5 PPG, 11.6 REB, 4.2 AST, and 1.5 BLK across that timeframe.

Unfortunately, Embiid fractured his orbital bone in Game 6 against the Raptors, so most of the pressure has fallen on James Harden in the early stages of this series, considering Philly acquired the three-time scoring champ from Brooklyn at the trade deadline and hasn’t quite lived up to the hype so far, with the Beard averaging just 21 PPG on 40.2% FG and 32.6% 3FG across the Sixers’ 20-12 SU stretch since his debut, marking some of Harden’s worst offensive clips since his rookie year (9.9 PPG, 40.3% FG).

The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven matchups between the Heat and Sixers. (Getty Images)

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Head-to-Head

Philadelphia won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with both Sixers’ victories soaring over the total at a lofty average of 252 PPG, while Miami’s lone win stayed under with a score of 106-94 (U 218).

However, Miami and Philly split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with their first three matchups staying under the number at an average of 195 PPG, while their final regular-season meeting cruised over with a score of 113-106 (O 210.5).

The Heat absolutely dominated the first two matchups of this series though, with Game 1 staying comfortably under the number at a score of 106-92 (U 210.5), while Game 2 cruised over at 119-103 (O, 208.5). Make note, however, Embiid is expected to return for Game 3 after missing the first two matchups of this series with a face injury.

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Key Players to Watch

  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Tyler Herro - SG (20.7 PPG, 5 REB, 4 AST)
  • PHI: Joel Embiid - C (30.6 PPG, 11.7 REB, 4.2 AST)
  • PHI: James Harden - PG (22 PPG, 7.7 REB, 10.3 AST)

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Conclusion

After posting back-to-back double-digit home victories to open this series, the Heat hit the road for Friday’s third matchup as one-point favorites over the Sixers at Wells Fargo Center, which is much shorter than the number Miami was favored by in Games 1 and 2 against Philly at home (MIA -7.5).

I’ll take the under here, as these teams got off to the races quickly in Game 2 thanks to Miami’s offense exploding for 119 PTS on 51% FG and 48% 3FG (119-103, O 208.5), however, far less scoring should be on-tap in Game 3 between a Heat squad that’s smothered its opponents to 97.4 DPPG across seven postseason matchups, and an Embiid led Sixers squad that allowed just 103.2 DPPG in the first round of the playoffs against Toronto.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Trends

  • The Sixers are 1-4 SU in their last five games.
  • The Heat are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven Sixers' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last seven Heat' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven matchups between the Heat and Sixers.
  • The Sixers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven matchups against Miami.

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