Last Updated May 11, 2022, 3:24 PM
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Predictions, Picks, Odds
Sports Betting Expert
The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Sunday night with a pivotal Game 4 showdown between the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers. Coverage begins from Wells Fargo Center in South Philly at 8:00 p.m. ET on TNT.
Sixers 102, Heat 98
Under 207.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Predictions
After earning the top spot in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to this season, as the Sixers opened with a lackluster 16-16 SU and 13-18-1 ATS stretch, while averaging just 105.4 OPPG during that span.
However, Philly quickly turned things around with a string of excellent defensive efforts, considering the Sixers have allowed just 107 DPPG across their latest 40-19 SU stretch, which includes an average of 103.2 DPPG in their first-round playoff series against Toronto – and 101.3 DPPG across their first three matchups against Miami.
On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.
Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), the Heat have carried that same momentum all the way through the early stages of the postseason, considering Miami enters Game 4 riding an impressive 44-20 SU and 36-27-1 ATS stretch, while finishing up the year ranked fifth in defensive efficiency and tenth in offensive efficiency (1.101 OE, 1.052 DE).
I’ll take the under here, as the return of Joel Embiid dramatically slowed down the pace of Game 3 and elevated Philly at the defensive end, highlighted by the Heat scoring just 79 PTS on 35% FG in Friday’s contest; and while Miami should inevitably put forth a much stronger offensive effort in Game 4, I still expect Sunday’s matchup to fall comfortably under the point-total OU 207.5.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Odds
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Resources
- Matchup: Southeast vs. Atlantic
- Date: Sunday, May 8, 2022
- Venue: Wells Fargo Center
- Location: Philadelphia, PA
- TV-Time: TNT - 8:00 p.m. ET
- Injury Report
Miami Heat Betting Analysis
- SU: 58-30
- ATS: 50-37-1
- O/U: 49-39
After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish (40-32 SU), the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.
Everything worked perfectly at first, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with all but two of those SU victories coming by double-digits.
However, the depth Miami sacrificed was briefly exposed mid-season, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled the Heat into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid. Depth hasn’t been much of a concern for them recently though, considering Miami has posted SU victories in 44 of its last 64 matchups, which includes sturdy postseason records of 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS.
Philadelphia 76ers Betting Analysis
- SU: 55-34
- ATS: 41-46-2
- O/U: 40-46-3
After finishing first in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia posted a surprisingly slow start to this season, as the Sixers averaged just 105.4 OPPG across their lackluster 16-16 SU stretch to kick off the year.
However, Embiid single-handedly carried them through the winter months, considering Philly closed the regular season with a solid 35-15 SU and 25-24-1 ATS run, propelled by the five-time All-Star averaging 32.5 PPG, 11.6 REB, 4.2 AST, and 1.5 BLK across that timeframe.
Unfortunately, Embiid fractured his orbital bone in Game 6 against the Raptors, so most of the pressure fell on James Harden in Games 1 and 2 of this series, considering the Sixers acquired the three-time scoring champ from Brooklyn at the trade deadline and hasn’t quite lived up to the hype thus far (21 PPG, 40.2% FG, 32.6% 3FG).
Embiid made his highly anticipated return in Game 3 though, and Philly absolutely dominated, as the Sixers ran away with a blowout victory in Game 3 at Wells Fargo Center this past Friday (W, 99-79).
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Head-to-Head
Philadelphia won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with both Sixers’ victories soaring over the total at a lofty average of 252 PPG, while Miami’s lone win stayed under with a score of 106-94 (U 218).
However, Miami and Philly split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with their first three matchups staying under the number at an average of 195 PPG, while their final regular-season meeting cruised over with a score of 113-106 (O 210.5).
Miami dominated the first two matchups of this series though, with Game 1 staying comfortably under the number at a score of 106-92 (U 210.5), while Game 2 cruised over at 119-103 (O, 208.5).
In Game 3, however, the Sixers flipped the script by posting an assertive home victory in Embiid's return to action, despite Philly’s big man contributing just 18 PTS on 42% FG to the winning effort (99-79, U 211).
Key Players to Watch
- MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
- MIA: Tyler Herro - SG (20.7 PPG, 5 REB, 4 AST)
- PHI: Joel Embiid - C (30.6 PPG, 11.7 REB, 4.2 AST)
- PHI: James Harden - PG (22 PPG, 7.7 REB, 10.3 AST)
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Conclusion
After bouncing back from back-to-back road losses with a blowout home victory in Game 3 (W, 99-79), the Sixers enter Sunday’s fourth matchup as two-point home favorites over the Heat at Wells Fargo Center, which is slightly heavier than the number Philly was favored by in their previous matchup (PHI -1).
I’ll take the under here, as Miami averaged 101 OPPG against Philadelphia’s 98 OPPG throughout the first three matchups of this series; and while Game 2 still cruised over the total with a final score of 119-103 (O 208.5), Game 4 should ultimately present another low-scoring battle between a Heat squad that’s smothered its opponents to 97.6 DPPG across eight postseason contests – and a Sixers squad that’s allowed just 102.6 DPPG across nine playoff matchups.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Trends
- The Sixers are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
- The Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the last eight Sixers' games.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last eight Heat' games.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the last eight matchups between the Heat and Sixers.
- The Sixers are 12-3 SU in their last 15 home games against Miami.
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