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Last Updated May 12, 2022, 18:32 PM

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Monday night with a heavyweight Game 4 showdown between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks. Coverage begins from Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Bucks 104, Celtics 101

Best Bets

Under 212 (-110) at Caesars

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same underwhelming pace with a mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since mid-January, considering the Celtics have surrendered just 103.3 DPPG across their latest 41-13 SU run, which includes an average of 109 DPPG during their four-game sweep of Brooklyn in the previous round – and 96.7 DPPG to Milwaukee in the first three matchups of this series.

On the other hand, Milwaukee posted a surprisingly poor start to the season, as the Bucks kicked things off with a lackluster 6-8 SU and ATS skid, with four of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Milwaukee has quietly dominated since that brief opening skid, considering the Bucks have yielded lofty averages of 116.4 OPPG and 111.7 DPPG across their latest 52-25 SU stretch, despite averaging just 104.9 OPPG across eight postseason matchups.

I’ll take the under here, as the first three matchups of this series went under the total at an average of 196.3 PPG, and Game 4 should ultimately breed a similar result between a Bucks squad that’s allowed 101 PTS or less in six-of-eight postseason matchups (96.9 DPPG), and a Celtics squad that’s surrendering just 103.7 DPPG since the start of the playoffs.

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Resources

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 56-33
  • ATS: 49-38-2
  • O/U: 42-45-2

After last year’s mediocre 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly lackluster start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a head-scratching 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has dominated defensively since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Monday’s contest riding an impressive 41-13 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 28 of those contests (113.1 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 22 of them (103.3 DPPG).

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 57-33
  • ATS: 43-46-1
  • O/U: 43-47

After finishing with the best record in the East in two of the last three seasons, Milwaukee’s rough start was somewhat of a head-scratcher, considering the Bucks’ compiled a record of 162-65 SU across the previous three regular seasons, only to open this season with a lackluster 6-8 SU skid.

Milwaukee has played excellent, when healthy, since mid-November though, considering the Bucks enter Monday’s Game 4 riding a sturdy 52-25 SU stretch, with a massive chunk of those losses coming in the absence of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (8).

The Bucks are 1-9 ATS in their last nine matchups against Boston. (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Head-to-Head

The Celtics won two of three regular-season matchups against Milwaukee last year, with all three contests soaring over the total at an average of 239.7 PPG.

However, Boston and Milwaukee split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with three of those matchups cruising over the total at an average of 237.7 PPG, while the other stayed under with a score of 117-103 (U 223).

Far more defense was played in the first three matchups of this series though, considering Milwaukee escaped with a 103-101 home victory in Game 3 to secure a 2-1 lead (U 212), which marks the third straight under result to open this series (196.3 PPG).

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Key Players to Watch

  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)
  • MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF (29.9 PPG, 11.6 REB, 5.8 AST)
  • MIL: Jrue Holiday - PG (18.3 PPG, 4.5 REB, 6.8 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Conclusion

After taking a 2-1 series lead with a thrilling home win on Saturday afternoon (W, 103-101), the Bucks enter Monday’s fourth matchup as one-point home favorites over the Celtics at Fiserv Forum, which slightly lighter the number Milwaukee was favored by in Game 3 (MIL -2).

I’ll take the under here, as the first three matchups of this series stayed comfortably under the total at an average of 196.3 PPG, and Game 4 should be no different, considering the Bucks have allowed just 96.9 DPPG across eight postseason contests, while the Celtics have surrendered 103.7 DPPG across seven playoff matchups.

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in eight straight Bucks' games.
  • The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Bucks are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last six Celtics' games.
  • The Bucks are 1-9 ATS in their last nine matchups against Boston.
  • The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 12 matchups between Boston and Milwaukee.

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