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Last Updated May 11, 2022, 18:58 PM

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Tuesday night with a pivotal fifth matchup between the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from FTX Arena in Miami at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Sixers 103, Heat 101

Best Bets

Under 209.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Predictions

After earning the top spot in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to this season, as the Sixers opened with a lackluster 16-16 SU and 13-18-1 ATS stretch, while averaging just 105.4 OPPG during that span.

However, Philly quickly turned things around with a string of excellent defensive efforts, considering the Sixers have allowed just 107 DPPG across their latest 41-19 SU run, which includes an average of 103.2 DPPG in their first-round playoff series against Toronto – and 103 DPPG across their first four matchups against Miami.

On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), the Heat have carried that same momentum all the way through the early stages of the postseason, considering Miami enters Tuesday’s contest riding an impressive 44-21 SU and 36-28-1 ATS stretch, while finishing the year ranked fifth in defensive efficiency and tenth in offensive efficiency (1.101 OE, 1.052 DE).

I’ll take the under here, as the first four matchups of this series split on each side of the over-under at two games apiece; however, the pace should ultimately decline down the homestretch between a Heat squad that’s smothered its opponents to 99.7 DPPG since the start of the postseason, and a Sixers squad that’s allowed just 103.1 DPPG across their ten playoff matchups.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

Philadelphia 76ers Betting Analysis

  • SU: 57-35
  • ATS: 43-47-2
  • O/U: 42-47-3

After finishing first in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia posted a surprisingly slow start to this season, as the Sixers averaged just 105.4 OPPG across their lackluster 16-16 SU stretch to kick off the year.

However, Joel Embiid single-handedly carried them through the winter months, considering Philly closed the regular season with a solid 35-15 SU and 25-24-1 ATS run, propelled by the five-time All-Star averaging 32.5 PPG, 11.6 REB, 4.2 AST, and 1.5 BLK across that timeframe.

Unfortunately, Embiid fractured his orbital bone in Game 6 against the Raptors, so most of the pressure fell on James Harden in Games 1 and 2 of this series, considering the Sixers acquired the three-time scoring champ from Brooklyn at the trade deadline and hasn’t quite lived up to the hype thus far (21 PPG, 40.2% FG, 32.6% 3FG).

Embiid made his highly anticipated return in Game 3 though, and Philly’s had a firm grip on this series since, as the Sixers ran away with a pair of comfortable victories at Wells Fargo Center in Games 3 and 4, despite Embiid contributing just 21 PPG on 48% FG across those matchups.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 59-32
  • ATS: 51-39-1
  • O/U: 51-40

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish (40-32 SU), the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

Everything worked perfectly at first, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with all but two of those SU victories coming by double-digits.

However, the depth Miami sacrificed was briefly exposed towards the midway point of the season, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled the Heat into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid. Depth hasn’t been much of a concern for them recently though, considering Miami has posted SU victories in 44 of its last 65 matchups, which includes sturdy postseason records of 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS.

The Sixers are 1-7 SU in their last eight road games against Miami. (Getty Images)

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

Philadelphia won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with both Sixers’ victories soaring over the total at a lofty average of 252 PPG, while Miami’s lone win stayed under with a score of 106-94 (U 218).

However, Miami and Philly split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with their first three matchups staying under the number at an average of 195 PPG, while their final regular-season meeting cruised over with a score of 113-106 (O 210.5).

Miami dominated the first two matchups of this series though, with Game 1 staying comfortably under the number at a score of 106-92 (U 210.5), while Game 2 cruised over at 119-103 (O, 208.5).

In Games 3 and 4, however, Philly flipped the script by posting a pair of assertive home victories with Embiid back in action, despite the Sixers' big man contributing just 21 PPG on 48% FG to the winning efforts.

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Key Players to Watch

  • PHI: Joel Embiid - C (30.6 PPG, 11.7 REB, 4.2 AST)
  • PHI: James Harden - PG (22 PPG, 7.7 REB, 10.3 AST)
  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Tyler Herro - SG (20.7 PPG, 5 REB, 4 AST)

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

After evening the series with back-to-back home victories in Games 3 and 4, the Sixers hit the road for Tuesday’s fifth contest as three-point underdogs against the Heat at FTX Arena, which is much shorter than the number Miami was favored by in their first two home matchups of this series (MIA -8).

I’ll take the under here, as Game 4 between these teams cruised over the total thanks to the Sixers racking up 116 PTS on 54% FG and 48% 3FG on the way to a comfortable eight-point victory (116-108, O 208), however, that type of offensive production probably won’t be on the table for Philly in Game 5 against a Heat squad that’s allowed 105 PTS or less in all five of their home matchups this postseason (97 DPPG).

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • The Sixers are 2-8 ATS in their last ten road games.
  • The Heat are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last nine Sixers' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last nine Heat' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last nine matchups between the Heat and Sixers.
  • The Sixers are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games.
  • The Sixers are 1-7 SU in their last eight road games against Miami.

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