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May 14, 2022

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Predictions, Picks, Odds

The NBA Conference Semi-Final Round will conclude on Sunday night with a blockbuster Game 7 showdown between the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns. Coverage begins from Footprint Center in Phoenix at 8:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Suns 114, Mavericks 102

Best Bets

Suns -6 (-110) at Caesars

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Predictions

After finishing second in the West with a record of 51-21 SU last year, Phoenix kept that same train rolling with another dominant start to this season, as the Suns opened with a red-hot 27-8 SU and 18-17 ATS run, with 18 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Despite Chris Paul’s 15-game absence down the homestretch, the Suns carried that same momentum all the way through the regular-season finish line, considering Phoenix enters Game 7 riding an impressive 44-15 SU and 33-26 ATS run, while averaging 115.5 OPPG and allowing just 109.1 DPPG during that span.

On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a frustrating 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Dallas has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks have surrendered just 104 DPPG across their latest 43-17 SU and 39-21 ATS stretch, despite allowing 110+ PTS to Phoenix in three of six matchups throughout this series (106.8 DPPG).

I’ll back Phoenix here, as the Suns are 5-1 SU and ATS at home since the start of the playoffs, while averaging 116 OPPG on 53% FG and 39% 3FG across those six matchups; likely presenting an uphill battle for a Mavs’ squad that’s 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road this postseason (104.3 OPPG, 45% FG).

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Odds

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Resources

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 59-35
  • ATS: 54-39-1
  • O/U: 35-58-1

After a disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas appeared destined for a similar fate in the early stages of this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas flipped the script by playing excellent defense during the back-half of the season, considering the Mavs’ enter Sunday’s Game 7 riding an impressive 43-17 SU stretch, despite averaging just 109.1 OPPG during that timeframe.

Phoenix Suns Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 71-23
  • ATS: 51-43
  • O/U: 46-47-1

After battling Utah for the top spot in the conference all the way through the final day of last year’s regular season (51-21 SU), Phoenix was surprisingly rusty to start the year, as the Suns dropped three-of-four contests out of the gate, while averaging just 106.3 OPPG across that brief stretch.

The Suns clearly just needed a few weeks to settle into a rhythm though, considering Phoenix boasts records of 70-20 SU and 50-40 ATS since that opening skid, while ranking fifth in the league in scoring and third in offensive efficiency (114.4 OPPG, 1.117 OE); and on the flipside, ranking eighth in points allowed and fourth in defensive efficiency (107.3 DPPG, 1.051 DE).

The Mavericks are 0-8 SU in their last eight road games against Phoenix. (Getty Images)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Head-to-Head

The Suns swept a three-game regular-season set against Dallas last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 213.7 PPG.

Phoenix also went 3-0 SU against Dallas this season, with two matchups staying under the total at an average of 206.5 PPG, while the other barely went over with a score of 112-104 (O 212); however, this year’s regular-season results should be taken with a grain of salt, considering Luka Doncic was sidelined for two of those affairs.

Doncic participated in the first five matchups of this series though, with Games 1 and 2 resulting in particularly high-scoring wins for Phoenix (236.5 PPG), while Games 3 and 4 resulted in hard-fought defensive battles that played heavily towards the strengths of Dallas (204.5 PPG).

However, a similar pace persisted in the following two matchups of this series, considering Phoenix ran away with a blowout home victory that stayed well under the total in Game 5 (110-80, U 215.5), while Game 6 resulted in a similarly low-scoring affair that bred a commanding home win for Dallas (113-86, U 210.5).

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Key Players to Watch

  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (28.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST)
  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)
  • PHX: Devin Booker - SG (26.8 PPG, 5 REB, 4.8 AST)
  • PHX: Chris Paul - PG (14.7 PPG, 4.4 REB, 10.8 AST)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Conclusion

After pushing Phoenix to the brink of elimination with a commanding home win in Game 6 (W, 113-86), the Mavericks hit the road for Sunday’s Game 7 as six-point underdogs against the Suns at Footprint Center, which is roughly the same number Phoenix was favored by in its first three home matchups of this series (PHX -7.5).

I’ll back Phoenix here, as the home team currently sits 6-0 SU and ATS throughout this series, which includes the Suns covering a spread of 6+ PTS in all three of their home matchups thus far; and while Dallas’ shooting numbers haven’t fallen off much on the road this postseason (45% FG, 40.2% 3FG), I still expect the best team in basketball to step up and win Game 7 somewhat comfortably at home this Sunday.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five Suns' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five Mavericks' games.
  • The Suns are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 matchups against Dallas.
  • The Mavericks are 0-8 SU in their last eight road games against Phoenix.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five matchups between Dallas and Phoenix.
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