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May 14, 2022

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Predictions, Odds, Picks

The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals will conclude Sunday mid-afternoon with a heavyweight Game 7 clash between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. Coverage begins from Boston’s TD Garden at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Score Prediction

Bucks 104, Celtics 102

Best Bets

Bucks +5.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same underwhelming pace with another mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has dominated defensively since mid-January, considering the Celtics are allowing just 103.2 DPPG across their latest 43-14 SU stretch, which includes an average of 109 DPPG during a four-game sweep of Brooklyn in the previous round, and 100.5 DPPG to Milwaukee through the first six matchups of this series.

On the other hand, Milwaukee posted a surprisingly poor start to the season, as the Bucks kicked things off with a lackluster 6-8 SU and ATS skid, with four of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Milwaukee has quietly dominated since that brief opening skid, considering the Bucks have yielded lofty averages of 116 OPPG and 111.5 DPPG across their latest 53-27 SU run, despite scoring just 104.7 OPPG across 11 postseason matchups.

I’ll take the points with Milwaukee here, as the visiting team is 4-2 SU through the first six matchups of this series, with each squad claiming victories in one-of-three home games thus far; and while playing on the road clearly doesn’t present any type of advantage, taking the points with Milwaukee still feels safe in Game 7 of a series in which neither team has dominated its homecourt.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds

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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Resources

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 58-35
  • ATS: 44-48-1
  • O/U: 45-48

After finishing with the best record in the East in two of the last three seasons, Milwaukee’s rough start was somewhat of a head-scratcher, considering the Bucks’ compiled a record of 162-65 SU across the previous three regular seasons, only to open their current campaign with a lackluster 6-8 SU skid.

Milwaukee has played excellent, when healthy, since mid-November though, considering the Bucks enter Sunday’s series finale riding a sturdy 53-27 SU stretch, with nearly half of those losses coming in the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo or Khris Middleton (11).

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 58-34
  • ATS: 51-39-2
  • O/U: 44-46-2

After last year’s underwhelming 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Sunday’s Game 7 riding an impressive 43-14 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 29 of those contests (113 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 23 of them (103 DPPG).

The Bucks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 matchups against Boston. (Getty Images)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Head-to-Head

The Celtics won two of three regular-season matchups against Milwaukee last year, with all three contests soaring over the total at an average of 239.7 PPG.

However, Boston and Milwaukee split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with three of those matchups cruising over the total at an average of 237.7 PPG, while the other stayed under with a score of 117-103 (U 223).

Far more defense was played in the opening three matchups of this series though, considering Milwaukee escaped Fiserv Forum with a narrow 103-101 victory in Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead and cash a third straight under result.

In Games 4 and 5, however, these teams ramped up the pace significantly, as their previous two contests resulted in a 1-1 SU split, with both matchups narrowly going over the total at an average of 220.5 PPG.

The pace of this series took another sharp turn in Friday's Game 6 though, as Boston posted a tough 108-95 road victory that stayed well under the total of OU 212.5.

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Key Players to Watch

  • MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF (29.9 PPG, 11.6 REB, 5.8 AST)
  • MIL: Jrue Holiday - PG (18.3 PPG, 4.5 REB, 6.8 AST)
  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Conclusion

After forcing Game 7 with a gutsy road victory in Milwaukee this past Friday (W, 108-95), the Celtics return home for Sunday’s series-finale as five-point favorites over the Bucks at TD Garden, which is roughly the same number Boston was favored by in its previous three home matchups of this series (BOS -4.5).

I’ll take the points with Milwaukee, as seven of the last ten NBA Game 7’s have been decided by five points or less, which includes the Bucks’ thrilling road upset over Brooklyn in last year’s Conference Semis’ (115-111 OT); and while Milwaukee might not quite have what it takes to pull off the upset here, I still expect Sunday’s matchup to be incredibly competitive from start to finish, and for the fate of this series to ultimately boil down to the final few possessions of Game 7.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the last 11 Bucks' games.
  • The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last nine Celtics' games.
  • The Bucks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 matchups against Boston.
  • The total has gone OVER in ten of the last 15 matchups between Boston and Milwaukee.
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