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Last Updated May 19, 2022, 13:48 PM

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Eastern Conference Finals will begin Tuesday night with a heavyweight Game 1 clash between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from FTX Arena in downtown Miami at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Heat 108, Celtics 102

Best Bets

Heat -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same underwhelming pace with another mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has dominated defensively since mid-January, considering the Celtics are allowing just 103.3 DPPG across their latest 44-14 SU stretch, which includes an average of 109 DPPG during a four-game sweep of Brooklyn in the first round, and 97.7.5 DPPG to Milwaukee in the previous round.

On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), the Heat have carried that same momentum all the way through the early stages of the postseason, considering Miami enters Tuesday’s series-opener riding an impressive 46-21 SU and 38-28-1 ATS stretch, while ranking third in defensive efficiency and ninth in offensive efficiency across that window (1.101 OE, 1.050 DE).

I’ll back the Heat here, as Miami is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home this postseason, while averaging 112 OPPG and allowing just 95 DPPG across those six contests, likely presenting an uphill battle for a Celtics squad that’ll be treading in a hostile environment on short rest in Game 1.

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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

  • SU: 59-34
  • ATS: 52-39-2
  • O/U: 44-47-2

After last year’s underwhelming 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Tuesday’s series-opener riding an impressive 44-14 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 29 of those contests (112.9 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 24 of them (102.6 DPPG).

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 61-32
  • ATS: 53-39-1
  • O/U: 51-42

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish (40-32 SU), the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

Everything worked perfectly to start, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with all but two of those SU victories coming by double-digits.

However, the depth Miami sacrificed was briefly exposed towards the midway point of the season, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled the Heat into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid in December.

Depth hasn’t been much of a concern for them recently though, considering the Heat boast SU victories in 46 of their last 67 contests, which includes sturdy postseason records of 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS, despite Lowry missing over half of those contests (6).

The Celtics are 9-0 ATS in their last nine road games. (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

Miami won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Boston last year, with both Heat’ victories soaring over the total at an average of 252 OPPG, while the Celtics’ lone win stayed under with a score of 107-105 (U 217).

However, the Celtics went 3-0 SU against Miami this season, with their first and third matchups staying well under the total at an average of 188.5 PPG, while the second went over with a score of 122-92 (O 210).

Key Players to Watch

  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)
  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Tyler Herro - SG (20.7 PPG, 5 REB, 4 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

After posting a gutsy home win over the Bucks in Game 7 this past Sunday (W, 109-81), the Celtics hit the road for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals as two-point underdogs against the Heat at FTX Arena, which is roughly the same spread listed for Boston’s road matchups in the previous round against Milwaukee (MIL +2).

I’ll back the Heat here, as Miami has been the best home team in the East this season at 35-12 SU and 26-21 ATS, which includes a solid 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS mark throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs, likely serving as an unfavorable matchup for a Celtics squad playing with a rest disadvantage on the road in Game 1.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in t heir last six games.
  • The Heat are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven Celtics' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the last 11 Heat' games.
  • The Celtics are 9-0 ATS in their last nine road games.
  • The Celtics are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games against Miami.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the last ten matchups between Miami and Boston.

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