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Last Updated May 22, 2022, 16:09 PM

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Eastern Conference Finals will resume on Saturday night with a pivotal third matchup between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Game 3 coverage begins from Boston’s TD Garden at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Score Prediction

Celtics 108, Heat 96

Best Bets

Celtics -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same underwhelming pace with another mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has dominated defensively since mid-January, considering the Celtics are allowing just 103.5 DPPG across their latest 45-15 SU run, which includes an average of 101.8 DPPG in the first two postseason rounds against Brooklyn and Milwaukee; and an average of 110 DPPG in the first two matchups of this series.

On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami has carried that same momentum all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals, considering the Heat enter Game 3 riding an impressive 47-22 SU and 39-29-1 ATS stretch, while ranking third in defensive efficiency and ninth in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.101 OE, 1.050 DE).

I’ll back Boston here, as the Celtics looked like a fully invigorated squad with Marcus Smart and Al Horford back on the floor in their blowout road victory in Game 2 (50% FG, 51% 3FG), and while they probably won’t replicate those same lofty offensive numbers in Game 3, I still expect Boston to cruise to a comfortable home win against a Heat squad that’s 2-3 SU on the road this postseason (101 OPPG, 44% FG, 27% 3FG).

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 62-33
  • ATS: 54-40-1
  • O/U: 53-42

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish (40-32 SU), the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry; and at first, everything worked perfectly, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with all but two of those SU victories coming by double-digits.

However, the depth Miami sacrificed was briefly exposed towards the midway point of the season, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled the Heat into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid in December.

Depth hasn’t been much of a concern down the homestretch though, considering the Heat boast SU victories in 47 of their last 69 contests, which includes sturdy postseason records of 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS, despite Lowry missing over half of those contests (8).

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

  • SU: 60-35
  • ATS: 53-40-2
  • O/U: 46-47-2

Miami won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Boston last year, with both Heat’ victories soaring over the total at an average of 252 OPPG, while the Celtics’ lone win stayed under with a score of 107-105 (U 217).

However, the Celtics went 3-0 SU against Miami this season, with their first and third matchups staying well under the total at an average of 188.5 PPG, while the second went over with a score of 122-92 (O 210).

The first two matchups of this series were quite the rollercoaster though, as the Heat ran away with a double-digit home win in Game 1 after outscoring Boston 39-14 in the third quarter (118-107, O 204); while Game 2 resulted in a blowout victory for the Celtics, as Boston erupted for 127 PTS behind a magnificent 20-of-40 performance from three-point range in Thursday’s affair (127-102, O 206).

The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 12 matchups between Miami and Boston. (Getty Images)

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Head-to-Head

Miami won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Boston last year, with both Heat’ victories soaring over the total at an average of 252 OPPG, while the Celtics’ lone win stayed under with a score of 107-105 (U 217).

However, the Celtics went 3-0 SU against Miami this season, with their first and third matchups staying well under the total at an average of 188.5 PPG, while the second went over with a score of 122-92 (O 210).

The first two matchups of this series were quite the rollercoaster though, as the Heat ran away with a double-digit home win in Game 1 after outscoring Boston 39-14 in the third quarter (118-107, O 204); while Game 2 resulted in a blowout victory for the Celtics, as Boston erupted for 127 PTS behind a magnificent 20-of-40 performance from three-point range in Thursday’s affair (127-102, O 206).

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Key Players to Watch

  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Tyler Herro - SG (20.7 PPG, 5 REB, 4 AST)
  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Betting Conclusion

After stomping Miami by 25 PTS on the road in Game 2 this past Thursday (W, 127-102), the. Celtics return home for Saturday’s third matchup as 6.5-point favorites over the Heat at TD Garden, marking the first time Boston has been favored in this series.

I’ll back Boston here, as Miami is 2-3 SU and ATS on the road this postseason, while averaging just 101.2 OPPG on 43.6% FG and 26.7% 3FG across those five affairs, likely serving as an unfavorable road matchup against a Celtics squad that exploded for 127 PTS on 51% FG and 50% 3FG in a hostile Game 2 environment this past Thursday.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Betting Trends

  • The Celtics are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games.
  • The Heat are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the last 13 Heat' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Boston's last five home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Miami's last five road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 12 matchups between the Heat and Celtics.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Boston's last five home matchups against Miami.
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