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Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
12 minute read

The Western Conference Finals will resume on Sunday night with a critical third matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks. Coverage begins from American Airlines Center in downtown Dallas at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Mavericks 112, Warriors 106

Best Bets

Mavericks -2 (-110) at Caesars

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State immediately bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with a red-hot 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Golden State was far less dominant in the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering the Warriors closed the regular season with a relatively pedestrian 35-25 SU and 26-31-3 ATS stretch, with over half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a frustrating 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Dallas has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks have surrendered just 104.4 DPPG across their latest 44-19 SU and 40-23 ATS stretch, which includes a nearly identical average of 104.2 DPPG in 15 playoff matchups.

I’ll back Dallas here, as Golden State is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS on the road this postseason, while averaging just 110 OPPG on 48% FG and 34% 3FG across those five contests, setting the stage for an unfavorable matchup against a Mavs’ squad that’s 5-1 ATS at home since the start of the playoffs (105.3 OPPG, 44% FG, 38% 3FG).

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

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Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Resources

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

  • SU: 62-32
  • ATS: 48-43-4
  • O/U: 43-50-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State immediately bounced back wearing a chip on its shoulder to open this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games, with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State’s success has primarily come through defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Game 3 riding a relatively bumpy 45-28 SU and 33-37-3 ATS stretch, while holding their opponents to just 108.5 DPPG during that span.

Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, highlighted by the Warriors averaging roughly 114.7 OPPG across their 45 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return to the lineup.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 60-37
  • ATS: 55-41-1
  • O/U: 37-59-1

After a disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas appeared destined for a similar fate in the early stages of this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas flipped the script by playing excellent defense throughout the back-half of the season, considering the Mavs’ enter Sunday’s contest riding an impressive 44-19 SU stretch, despite averaging just 109 OPPG during that timeframe.

The Warriors are 4-9 SU in their last 13 matchups against Dallas. (Getty Images)

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head

The Mavericks won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Golden State last year, with all three contests soaring over the total at a lofty average of 255 PPG.

Dallas also went 3-1 SU against Golden State this season, with two of those matchups staying under the total at an average of 194.5 PPG, while the other two cruised over at 228.5 PPG.

However, Game 1 of this series belonged to Golden State from start to finish, as the Warriors ran away with a 25-point victory in Wednesday’s series-opener, which stayed comfortably under the total thanks to the Mavs’ scoring just 87 PTS on 36% FG and 23% 3FG (112-87, U 216).

Dallas played much better in Game 2 though, considering the Mavs’ tallied 117 PTS on 47% FG and 47% 3FG in Friday’s contest, and even entered the halftime break with a 14-point lead; but it still wasn’t enough to fend off a Warriors squad that generated 127 PTS on 56% FG and 50% 3FG throughout the affair (126-117, O 216).

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Key Players to Watch

  • GSW: Jordan Poole - SG (18.5 PPG, 3.4 REB, 4 AST)
  • GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (28.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST)
  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Conclusion

After trailing by 19 PTS in the first half of Game 2 and still managing to cover a six-point spread in the contest (W, 126-117), the Warriors hit the road for Sunday’s third matchup as two-point underdogs against the Mavericks at American Airlines Center, marking the first time Golden State has been an underdog in this series.

I’ll back Dallas here, as the Mavericks are 5-1 SU and ATS at home this postseason, while holding their opponents to 93.5 PPG on 43% FG and 32% 3FG across those six contests, likely presenting an uphill battle for a Warriors squad that’s 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS on the road since the start of the playoffs.

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
  • The Warriors are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven Mavericks' games.
  • The Mavericks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 matchups against Golden State.
  • The Warriors are 4-9 SU in their last 13 matchups against Dallas.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the last nine matchups between the Warriors and Mavericks in Dallas.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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