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Last Updated May 24, 2022, 13:39 PM

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Eastern Conference Finals will resume on Monday night with a heavyweight Game 4 showdown between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Coverage begins from Boston’s TD Garden at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Score Prediction

Celtics 113, Heat 101

Best Bets

Celtics -7 (-110) at Caesars

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same underwhelming pace with another mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has dominated defensively since mid-January, considering the Celtics have allowed just 103.6 DPPG across their latest 45-16 SU run, which includes an average of 101.8 DPPG in the first two postseason rounds against Brooklyn and Milwaukee; and an average of 109.7 DPPG through the first three matchups of this series.

On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami has carried that same momentum all the way to the Conference Finals Round, considering the Heat enter Game 4 riding an impressive 48-22 SU and 40-29-1 ATS stretch, while ranking third in defensive efficiency and ninth in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.101 OE, 1.050 DE).

I’ll back Boston here, as the Celtics actually posted better shooting numbers than Miami in Game 3 despite losing by six points, considering Boston scored 103 PTS on 49% FG and 38% 3FG compared to Miami’s 109 PTS on 47% FG and 33% 3FG; however, the deciding factor in Saturday’s affair was the Celtics’ 23-turnover collapse, which isn’t something Miami can rely on as this series progresses.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 63-33
  • ATS: 55-40-1
  • O/U: 54-42

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish (40-32 SU), the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry; and at first, everything worked perfectly, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with all but two of those SU victories coming by double-digits.

However, the depth Miami sacrificed was briefly exposed towards the midway point of the season, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled the Heat into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid in December.

Depth hasn’t been much of an issue down the homestretch though, considering the Heat boast SU victories in 48 of their last 70 contests, which includes sturdy postseason records of 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS, despite Lowry missing over half of those contests (8).

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

  • SU: 60-36
  • ATS: 53-41-2
  • O/U: 47-47-2

After last year’s underwhelming 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Game 4 riding an impressive 45-16 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 30 of those contests (112.7 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 24 of them (103.6 DPPG).

The Heat are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 road games. (Getty Images)

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Head-to-Head

Miami won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Boston last year, with both Heat’ victories soaring over the total at an average of 252 OPPG, while the Celtics’ lone win stayed under with a score of 107-105 (U 217).

However, the Celtics went 3-0 SU against Miami this season, with their first and third matchups staying well under the total at an average of 188.5 PPG, while the second went over with a score of 122-92 (O 210).

The first two matchups of this series in Miami were quite the rollercoaster though, as the Heat ran away with a double-digit home victory in Game 1 after outscoring Boston 39-14 in the third quarter (118-107, O 204); which the Celtics countered with a dominant win of their own in Game 2, as Boston erupted for 127 PTS behind a magnificent 20-of-40 three-point performance in last Thursday’s contest (127-102, O 206).

In Game 3, however, the visiting team prospered again, as Miami jumped out to a massive 21-point lead in the first quarter of Saturday’s affair (39-18) and barely held on for the win thanks to Boston turning the ball over 23 times throughout the contest (109-103, O 208).

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Key Players to Watch

  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (19.1 PPG, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Betting Conclusion

After posting an impressive road victory in Game 3 this past Saturday (W, 109-103), the Heat enter Monday’s fourth matchup as seven-point road underdogs against the Celtics at TD Garden, which is slightly heavier than the number Boston was favored by in Saturday’s contest (MIA +5).

I’ll back Boston here, as Miami’s stunning victory in Game 3 makes the Heat 3-3 SU and ATS on the road since the start of the playoffs (109-103, O 208), while averaging just 102.5 OPPG on 44% FG and 36% 3FG across those six contests; and while the Celtics haven’t been overly impressive at home this postseason (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS), I still expect them to bounce back with a commanding win at TD Garden in Game 4.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Betting Trends

  • The Celtics are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games.
  • The Heat are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six Heat' games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven Celtics' games.
  • The Heat are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the last five matchups between the Heat and Celtics.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Boston's last six home matchups against Miami.
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