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Last Updated May 26, 2022, 13:24 PM

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Western Conference Finals will resume on Tuesday night with what could be the fourth and final matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks. Game 4 coverage begins from Chase Center in San Francisco at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Mavericks 108, Warriors 102

Best Bets

Mavericks -1 (-110) at Caesars

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State immediately bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with a red-hot 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Golden State was far less dominant without the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering the Warriors enter Game 4 riding a relatively pedestrian 46-28 SU and 34-37-3 ATS stretch, with over half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a frustrating 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Dallas has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks have surrendered just 104.4 DPPG across their latest 44-20 SU and 40-24 ATS stretch, which includes a nearly identical average of 104.5 DPPG in 16 playoff matchups.

I’ll back the Mavericks here, as Dallas scored just 100 PTS on 40% FG and 29% 3FG during its disappointing home loss in Game 3, and while the Mavs’ struggles can be partially chalked up to the impact of Golden State’s second-ranked defense (105.9 DPPG, 1.041 DE), I still expect Dallas to bounce back in Game 4 after going 29-12 SU at home during the regular season, and 5-2 SU at home to open the postseason.

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

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Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Resources

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

  • SU: 63-32
  • ATS: 49-43-4
  • O/U: 43-51-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State immediately bounced back wearing a chip on its shoulder to open this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games, with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State’s success has primarily come through defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Game 4 riding a relatively bumpy 46-28 SU and 34-37-3 ATS stretch, while holding their opponents to just 108.3 DPPG during that span.

Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, highlighted by the Warriors averaging roughly 114.6 OPPG across their 46 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return from injury.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 60-38
  • ATS: 55-42-1
  • O/U: 37-60-1

After a disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas appeared destined for a similar fate in the early stages of this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas flipped the script by playing excellent defense throughout the back half of the season, considering the Mavs’ enter Tuesday’s contest riding an impressive 44-20 SU stretch, despite averaging just 108.8 OPPG during that timeframe.

The total has gone UNDER in five straight Mavericks' home games. (Getty Images)

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head

The Mavericks won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Golden State last year, with all three contests soaring over the total at a lofty average of 255 PPG.

Dallas also went 3-1 SU against Golden State this season, with two of those matchups staying under the total at an average of 194.5 PPG, while the other two cruised over at 228.5 PPG.

However, Game 1 of this series belonged to Golden State from start to finish, as the Warriors ran away with a 25-point victory in Wednesday’s series-opener, which stayed comfortably under the total thanks to the Mavs’ scoring just 87 PTS on 36% FG and 23% 3FG (112-87, U 216).

The Mavericks played much better in Game 2 though, considering Dallas scored 117 PTS on 47% FG and 47% 3FG in Friday’s contest, and even entered the halftime break with a 14-point lead; but it still wasn’t enough to fend off a Warriors squad that tallied 127 PTS on 56% FG and 50% 3FG throughout the affair (126-117, O 216).

Dallas also played decent at home in Game 3, considering the score between these squads was tied across the first, second, and fourth quarters of action (79-79); however, the third quarter got away from them and the Warriors quickly built a nine-point lead, which ultimately pushed Golden State over the edge in Sunday’s affair (109-100, U 216).

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Key Players to Watch

  • GSW: Jordan Poole - SG (18.5 PPG, 3.4 REB, 4 AST)
  • GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (28.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST)
  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Conclusion

After taking a 3-0 series lead with a gutsy road win in Game 3 (W, 109-100), the Warriors enter Tuesday’s fourth matchup as one-point road underdogs against the Mavericks at American Airlines Center, which is slightly shorter than the number Dallas was favored by in Sunday’s contest (GSW +3).

I’ll back Dallas here, as Golden State’s 109-100 victory in Game 3 makes them 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road since the start of the playoffs, while shooting just 48% FG and 37% 3FG across those six contests, setting the stage for a tough matchup against a Mavs’ squad that’s held its opponents to 95.7 DPPG on 44% FG and 33% 3FG at home this postseason (5-2 ATS).

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last six home games.
  • The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last eight Mavericks' games.
  • The Mavericks are 2-4 ATS in their last six matchups against Golden State.
  • The Mavericks are 13-2 SU in the last 15 matchups they were favored in.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five straight Mavericks' home games.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of Golden State's last ten road games against Dallas.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the last 19 matchups between Golden State and Dallas.
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