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Last Updated May 29, 2022, 13:13 PM

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Eastern Conference Finals will resume on Wednesday night with a pivotal fifth matchup between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from FTX Arena in Miami at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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Score Prediction

Heat 109, Celtics 104

Best Bets

Over 203.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same underwhelming pace with another mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has dominated defensively since mid-January, considering the Celtics have allowed just 103.3 DPPG across their latest 46-16 SU run, which includes an average of 101.8 DPPG in the first two postseason rounds against Brooklyn and Milwaukee; and an average of 102.8 DPPG through the first four matchups of this series.

On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami has carried that same momentum all the way through the Conference Finals Round, considering the Heat enter Game 5 riding an impressive 48-23 SU and 40-30-1 ATS stretch, while ranking third in defensive efficiency and ninth in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.099 OE, 1.052 DE).

I’ll take the over here, as the first three matchups of this series went over the total at an average of 222 PPG, and while Game 4 stayed well under thanks to Miami scoring just 11 PTS on 15% FG in the first quarter (102-82, U 206), Game 5 should inevitably contain more scoring between a Heat squad that’s averaging 112 OPPG at home this postseason, and a Celtics squad that’s seen over results in three of their last four road games.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

  • SU: 61-36
  • ATS: 54-41-2
  • O/U: 47-48-2

After last year’s underwhelming 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Game 5 riding an impressive 46-16 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 30 of those contests (112.5 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 25 of them (103.3 DPPG).

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 63-34
  • ATS: 55-41-1
  • O/U: 54-43

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish (40-32 SU), the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry; and at first, everything worked perfectly, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS run.

However, the depth Miami sacrificed was briefly exposed towards the midway point of the season, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled the Heat into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid in December.

Depth hasn’t been much of an issue as of late though, considering the Heat boast SU victories in 48 of their last 71 contests, which includes sturdy postseason records of 10-5 SU and 9-6 ATS, despite Lowry missing over half of those contests (8).

The total has gone OVER in ten of the last 14 matchups between Boston and Miami. (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

Miami won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Boston last year, with both Heat’ victories soaring over the total at an average of 252 OPPG, while the Celtics’ lone win stayed under with a score of 107-105 (U 217).

However, the Celtics went 3-0 SU against Miami this season, with their first and third matchups staying well under the total at an average of 188.5 PPG, while the second went over with a score of 122-92 (O 210).

The first two matchups of this series were quite the rollercoaster though, as the Heat ran away with a double-digit home victory in Game 1 after outscoring Boston 39-14 in the third quarter (118-107, O 204); which Boston countered with a dominant win of its own in Game 2, as the Celtics erupted for 127 PTS behind a magnificent 20-of-40 three-point performance last Thursday (127-102, O 206).

In Game 3, however, the visiting team prospered again, as Miami jumped out to a massive 21-point lead in the first quarter of Saturday’s affair (39-18), and barely held on for the win thanks to Boston turning the ball over 23 times throughout the contest (109-103, O 208).

The Celtics flipped the script in Game 4 though, as Miami trailed Boston by 18 PTS in the first quarter of Monday’s contest after going seven-and-a-half minutes without a made field goal (11 PTS, 15% FG), and Boston kept its foot on the gas all the way to a 20-point victory (102-82, U 206).

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Key Players to Watch

  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)
  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (19.1 PPG, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

After getting stomped by 20 PTS in Game 4 at TD Garden (L, 102-82), the Heat return home for Wednesday’s fifth matchup as two-point underdogs against the Celtics at FTX Arena, marking the first time Miami has been an underdog at home this postseason.

I’ll take the over here, as Miami is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home since the start of the playoffs, while averaging 111.5 OPPG on 48% FG and 36% 3FG across those eight contests, setting the stage for a relatively high-scoring battle against a Celtics squad that’s averaging 112 OPPG on the road this postseason (46% FG, 37% 3FG).

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • The Celtics are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games.
  • The Heat are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in ten of the last 15 Heat' games.
  • The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
  • The Heat are 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Boston's last seven road games against Miami.
  • The total has gone OVER in ten of the last 14 matchups between Boston and Miami.
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