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Last Updated Jun 10, 2022, 22:40 PM

Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Predictions, Picks, Odds

The NBA Finals will resume on Wednesday night with a pivotal third matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics. Game 3 coverage begins from Boston’s TD Garden at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Score Prediction

Celtics 106, Warriors 102

Best Bets

Under 212.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State immediately bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with a red-hot 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Golden State was far less dominant during the absences of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering the Warriors enter Game 3 riding a relatively pedestrian 48-30 SU and 36-39-3 ATS stretch, with over half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

On the other hand, Boston stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start to the season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with half of those SU losses coming by double-digits.

Boston has dominated defensively since mid-January though, considering the Celtics are allowing just 103 DPPG across their latest 49-18 SU run, which includes an average of 102 DPPG in the first two rounds of the postseason against Brooklyn and Milwaukee; and 100 DPPG in the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami.

I’ll take the under here, as the Warriors have struggled miserably on the road since the start of the playoffs, considering Golden State sits 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS across seven road matchups; setting the stage for a relatively low-scoring battle against a Celtics squad that’s held its opponents to 100 DPPG at home this postseason (44% FG, 35% 3FG).

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

  • SU: 65-34
  • ATS: 51-45-4
  • O/U: 46-52-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State clearly had a point to prove during the early stages of this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games, with their only two SU losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Game 3 riding a relatively bumpy 48-30 SU and 36-39-3 ATS stretch, while smothering their opponents to 108.3 DPPG during that span.

Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, highlighted by the Warriors averaging 114.4 OPPG across their 62 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return from injury (37-25 SU).

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

  • SU: 64-38
  • ATS: 57-43-2
  • O/U: 49-51-2

After last year’s underwhelming 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Wednesday’s matchup riding an impressive 49-18 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 31 of those contests (111.5 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 27 of them (103 DPPG).

The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 15 matchups between Boston and Golden State. (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head

The Celtics won both regular-season matchups against Golden State last year, with their first meeting staying under the total at a score of 111-107 (U 227), while the second cruised over at 119-114 (O 226).

However, these teams split a two-game set 1-1 SU this season, with Golden State outgunning the Celtics for a relatively fast-paced home victory in their first meeting (111-107, O 216), which Boston countered with a commanding home win of its own in their second meeting (110-88, U 220).

Similarly, the first two matchups of this series were quite the rollercoaster, as Boston trailed by double-digits in the fourth quarter of Game 1 but ended up winning the contest by 12 PTS (120-108, O 214); while Golden State posted a double-digit victory of its own by holding Boston to 88 PTS on 38% FG in Game 2 (107-88, U 213).

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Key Players to Watch

  • GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
  • GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (20.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST)
  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion

After splitting Games 1 and 2 of this series at home, the Warriors hit the road for Wednesday’s third matchup as four-point underdogs against the Celtics at TD Garden, marking the first time Boston has been favored in this series.

I’ll take the under here, as the Celtics have consistently struggled at TD Garden throughout these playoffs, considering Boston is 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS across nine road matchups, while averaging just 105.7 OPPG on 45% FG and 36% 3FG in those contests; setting the stage for a low-scoring battle against a Warriors squad that’s 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road this postseason (48% FG, 35% 3FG).

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends

  • The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Celtics are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games.
  • The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
  • The Celtics are 13-6 SU in their last 19 home games.
  • The Celtics are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven matchups against Golden State.
  • The Warriors are 2-7 SU in their last nine matchups against Boston.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of Boston's last ten home games against Golden State.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 15 matchups between Boston and Golden State.
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