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Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
12 minute read

The NBA Finals will resume on Friday night with a critical fourth matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics. Game 4 coverage begins from TD Garden in Boston at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Score Prediction

Warriors 108, Celtics 102

Best Bets

Warriors ML (+145) at BetMGM

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State immediately bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with a red-hot 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by double-digits.

However, Golden State was far less dominant during separate absences of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering the Warriors enter Friday riding a relatively pedestrian 48-31 SU and 36-40-3 ATS stretch, with over half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

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On the other hand, Boston stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start to the season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with half of those SU losses coming by double-digits.

Boston has dominated defensively since mid-January though, considering the Celtics are allowing just 102.8 DPPG across their current 50-18 SU run, which includes an average of 102 DPPG in the first two rounds of the postseason against Brooklyn and Milwaukee; and 100 DPPG in the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami.

I’ll take Golden State moneyline here, as Boston benefited enormously from Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown’s combined 51 PTS on 52% FG and 47% 3FG in Game 3; and while Jayson Tatum clearly has room for improvement down the stretch of this series (22 PPG, 34% FG), Boston should ultimately fall victim to a downtick in production from its supporting cast in Game 4.

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

  • SU: 65-35
  • ATS: 51-46-4
  • O/U: 47-52-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State clearly had a point to prove during the early stages of this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games, with their only two SU losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since mid-December though, as the Warriors enter Game 4 riding a relatively bumpy 48-31 SU and 36-40-3 ATS stretch, while smothering their opponents to 108 DPPG during that span.

Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, considering the Warriors have averaged 114.2 OPPG across their 63 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return from injury (37-26 SU).

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

  • SU: 65-38
  • ATS: 58-43-2
  • O/U: 50-51-2

After last year’s underwhelming 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Friday’s matchup riding an impressive 50-18 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 32 of those contests (112 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 28 of them (103 DPPG).

The Celtics are 8-2 SU in their last ten matchups against Golden State (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head

The Celtics won both regular-season matchups against Golden State last year, with their first meeting staying under the total at a score of 111-107 (U 227), while the second cruised over at 119-114 (O 226).

However, these teams split a two-game set 1-1 SU this season, with Golden State outgunning the Celtics for a relatively fast-paced home victory in their first meeting (111-107, O 216), which Boston countered with a commanding home win of its own in their second meeting (110-88, U 220).

Similarly, the first two matchups of this series were quite the rollercoaster, as Boston trailed by double-digits in the fourth quarter of Game 1 but ended up winning the contest by 12 PTS (120-108, O 214); while Golden State posted a double-digit victory of its own in Game 2 by holding Boston to 88 PTS on 38% FG throughout Sunday’s affair (107-88, U 213).

In Game 3, Boston bounced back with a double-digit home victory propelled by Brown and Smart tallying 24+ PTS apiece on a combined 17-33 from the field and 7-15 from three-point range (52% FG, 47% 3FG); despite the rest of the Celtics shooting just 46% FG and 30% FG in Wednesday’s contest (116-100, O 214).

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Key Players to Watch

  • GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
  • GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (20.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST)
  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion

After taking a 2-1 series lead with a double-digit home win in Game 3 (W, 116-100), the Celtics enter Friday’s fourth matchup as four-point home favorites over the Warriors at TD Garden, which is slightly heavier than the number Boston was favored by in Wednesday’s victory (BOS -3.5).

I’ll take Golden State moneyline here, as Boston has struggled to defend homecourt this postseason, considering the Celtics are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last ten home games, while averaging 107 OPPG on 45% FG and 36% 3FG across those contests; setting the stage for a very losable matchup against a desperate Warriors squad averaging 109 OPPG on 48% FG and 35% 3FG on the road this postseason (48% FG, 35% 3FG).

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends

  • The Warriors are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the last five Warriors' games.
  • The Celtics are 14-6 SU in their last 20 home games.
  • The Celtics are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight matchups against Golden State.
  • The Warriors are 2-8 SU in their last ten matchups against Boston.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 16 matchups between Boston and Golden State.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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