NBA Christmas Day Picks, Predictions, Odds

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Our stable of NBA experts will be providing their Predictions, Picks, and Best Bets for all the featured matchups this Christmas Day.

• New York Knicks +1.5 (-105) vs. PHI
• Lakers-Mavericks Over 231.5 (-110)
• Boston Celtics -5.5 (-110) vs. MIL
• Grizzlies-Warriors Under 230.5 (-110)
• Suns-Nuggets Under 231.5 (-110)

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS vs. NEW YORK KNICKS

Best Bet: Knicks +1.5 (-105)

Philadelphia's a seven-game win streak will most likely be in jeopardy on Christmas day, heading into a matchup against a Knicks side that had an eight-game win streak snapped recently, and are now desperate to rebound following two consecutive losses.

The Sixers have played excellent at home this season. However, on the road they are just 5-7, and recently, they just lost three straight road games before their current win streak began, which has all been acheived at home.

The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. They are also 27-13 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line coming off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent riding a three-game win streak or more are 61-32 across the last 26 seasons, cashing at a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Which is the case for the Knicks today.

NBA Road favorites following off two or more consecutive home wins, on Sunday games are 8-31 ATS across the last five seasons, which is a 80% conversion rate for bettors, and also the case for Philly on Christmas Day. So, I'll back New York here.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS vs. DALLAS MAVERICKS

Best Bet: Over 231.5 (-110)

The Lakers typically get punished on the road at the defensive end due to their reckless run-and-gun tendencies in transition. Overall, they rank 2nd in the league in pace, and they're averaging 115.2 PPG, which ranks ninth in scoring. However, they also rank 26th in points allowed, and on the road, they're allowing a lofty average of 121.7 PPG on the campaign.

Led by superstar Luka Doncic, The Mavs are the kind of team that can rack up points in quite a hurry against weak defensive squads like L. A.

In their eight road games where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season, the Lakers have combined with their opponents for an average of 232 PPG in those contests.

The 'over' is 36-22 in matchups the Lakers have been underdogs in the last two seasons, with a combined average of 230 PPG in those contests. The total is also 12-3 in Lakers' matchups against poor rebounding teams the last two seasons, which qualifies as a squad that gets out-rebounded by its opponents by 3+ boards per game, resulting in a combined average of 231.3 PPG.

The total gas gone 'over' in five straight Lakers' road games. And the 'over' is now is 4-1 in the Lakers last five games playing on one days' rest.

The 'over' is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and its also 21-7 in Lakers last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

While on the other hand, the 'over' is also is 5-2 in Mavericks last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. I'll take the over here.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS vs. BOSTON CELTICS

Best Bet: Celtics -5.5 (-110)

Once again, we are treated with a fantastic matchup on Christmas Day however, the Celtics have the edge in my opinion playing at home while the Bucks are nursing a couple key injuries. This is the first meeting of the year since last years epic seven game series.

The Bucks are playing their fourth straight road game in seven days. The Celtics have dropped five of their last seven and want to make a statement today on their home court where they are 12-5. Bucks are just 3-13-1 ATS the last 17 overall meetings. I'll back Boston here.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES vs. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Best Bet: Under 230.5 (-110)

The only team other than the Warriors that might possibly have played worse in New York last week was the Jets (for the sake of argument never mind that the J-Men stunk up the Meadowlands in New Jersey, close enough the the Big Apple to count). Even Stephen A Smith bawled out the Dubs after they allowed 91 points in the FIRST half vs. the Nets, which shouldn't happen even if Steph, Klay, and Andrew Wiggins are all out (as they were on Wednesday).

But that completed a bad 24 hours in the Big Apple after the Knicks had routed them 132-94 the previous night. The only bits of good news at the moment for the champs are that they return home to Chase Center for this one instead of staying on the road, where they've won only twice all season, and Steph's updated prognosis, which has his shoulder keeping him out only for two more weeks.

Which obviously includes Sunday, where he'll be joined in dry-dock once again by Wiggins and perhaps Draymond Green (foot soreness), though Klay is expected to be available. Meanwhile the Griz hit the Bay Area off of a 125-100 romp past the Suns on Friday and having won 8 of 10 and owning the league's second-ranked defense (101.9 points allowed per 100 possessions) in December, and Desmond Bane has returned to active duty (scored 17 in his return game at Phoenix) for the first time in more than a month.

First meeting since last year's playoffs, when The Dubs won in a difficult six games as Ja Morant missed the last three games of the series for the Griz. This is also the first time Memphis has ever appeared in a Christmas Game.

Memphis is on a 6-1 "under" run, and while Dubs have also seen the"over" hit in their last six, which all came on the road, where Golden State is a completely different team. At Chase Center, they're 8-2 "under" in their last ten. So, I'll take the under here.

PHOENIX SUNS vs. DENVER NUGGETS

Best Bet: Under 231.5 (-110)

The Nuggets have played solid defense the past couple games. And now, heading into a matchup against a Phoenix squad that has struggled a bit on the offensive end of late, this is too generous of a total.

The Nuggets are coming off a 120-107 win over Portland, and they shot a monstrous 47-of-81 from the field in that contest. The Nuggets are 0-5 OU since April 27 following a game in which they shot at least 55% from the field. But part of that was attempting just 21 three-pointers. Since 2019, teams that attempted no more than 23 three-pointers in their previous contests are 166-194 OU.

Denver also had just four offensive rebounds in the game. Teams that fell short of four offensive boards in their previous contest are 905-1098 OU. Also, the Nuggets are 0-8 OU since December 22, 2021 when they had no more than 5 offensive rebounds last game.

Phoenix lost to Memphis this past Friday, 125-100. The Grizzlies shot 45-of-91 from the field, however, Phoenix gave up 19 offensive boards in that matchup, which was the real reason for the loss. Teams that allowed at least 48% shooting and at least 19 offensive rebounds last game are 96-139 OU in the following contest. I'll take the under here.

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers