Last Updated Feb 28, 2023, 12:01 PM

NBA Daily Tip Sheet Picks and Predictions - Friday's Triple Threat

There's several ways to bet on the NBA, and some of the most popular ones include taking a side, a full-game total, or a player prop. So, this is what we like to call our Daily Triple Threat. Our three best bets in the aforementioned categories for NBA matchups on Friday, February 24th. Best of luck!

NBA Best Bets for Friday, February 24

  • Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (-110) vs. MIA
  • Hornets-Timberwolves Over 240.5 (-110)
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (BKN) Over 5.5 Rebounds (+105) @ CHI

Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (-110) vs. MIA

The consistent level of dominance displayed by this Bucks’ squad tends to fly under the radar, and this year has been no different, considering Milwaukee is currently positioned 2nd in the Eastern Conference standings with a record of 41-17 on the season, which puts them on pace for their 5th straight campaign with 45+ wins.

When the Bucks are healthy, and everything seems to be firing on all cylinders, Milwaukee is arguably the most dangerous team in the East. Nobody stacks up against Giannis Antetokoumpo one-on-one down low, and when combined with a handful of solid two-way wings, their formula is air tight, at least regarding regular season production.

However, make no mistake about it, this Milwaukee’ squad is still very beatable, especially if Giannis is sidelined for this one. It’s unwise to fight fire with fire, though. Whenever teams decide to slow things down and work within a halfcourt set against the Bucks, they usually get ripped to shreds. It may seem rather simple, but the key to beating Milwaukee is being able to outshoot them while also forcing an upbeat pace, and Miami isn’t exactly built for a trackmeet.

Like Milwaukee, the Heat tend to thrive in a controlled environment, currently ranked 28th in the league in pace and 2nd in points allowed per game (108.3 PACE, 108 PPG), and oftentimes, their defense, alone, is capable of propelling them to victory.

This Miami’ team is far less efficient in the shooting department than squads in years past, though, considering the Heat rank Top 10 in three-point attempts per game, despite shooting the longball at the third-worst clip in the league (35 3PA, 33% 3FG).

Even in the absence of Giannis, you can't get away with that type of shooting on the road in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 24-5 at home, and they're 4-1 in their five home matchups without Antetokounmpo. So, regardless of their potential short-handedness, there's still a good chance that we'll see Milwaukee handle business in Friday's matchup against a Heat' squad that owns a record of 13-17 on the road this season.

Take Milwaukee!

Hornets-Timberwolves Over 240.5 (-110)

The Timberwolves and Hornets have similar styles of play, highlighted by Minnesota ranking 4th in the league in pace at 101.3, compared to Charlotte ranking 5th at 101.2. However, don’t be fooled, these two squads are very different.

The Hornets are one of the worst teams in the NBA, currently stationed 14th in the Eastern Conference standings with a record of 17-43 on the year, and in pretty much any given scenario, it’s tough to make a case for this Charlotte squad that ranks Bottom 5 in the league in both offensive and defensive rating (110 ORtg, 116.3 DRtg).

While on the other hand, Minnesota has certainly had its fair share of ups-and-downs throughout the year, currently hovering just above the .500 mark with a lackluster record of 31-30. However, for those who began paying attention the NBA towards the end of football season, the Wolves’ overall placement in the standings may seem a little bit odd, and you would be forgiven, considering they’re now 15-9 since New Year’s Day, and rank Top 10 in the league in net rating during that timeframe (+2.1 NetRtg).    

Early in the season, the bottom fell out for the Wolves due to their struggles at the offensive end of the floor, but at this point, it seems like they’ve figured out how to overcome those issues, despite their defensive numbers continuing to worsen.

So, there’s a good chance this one goes ‘over’ the number between a pair of squads that combined with their opponents for a lofty average of 238 PPG in their last eight contests prior to the All-Star Break.

Take the Over!
The total has gone OVER in six of Minnesota's last seven games.(Getty)

Dorian Finney-Smith (BKN) Over 5.5 Rebounds

In his six years with Dallas, the Mavericks rarely relied on Dorian Finney-Smith as a rebounder, which to an extent, seems to have prevented him from reaching his full potential in that department. 

However, in the days leading up to his transition to Brooklyn, Finney-Smith’s activity level on the glass appeared to be rising rather quickly, and it’s continued to climb since joining the Nets, highlighted by DFS averaging 6.5 rebounds per game in his four contests following the trade, and he’s now corralled 7+ rebounds in seven of his last nine outings overall.

Following the departures of both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn finds itself in an incredibly tough spot. At this point, it’s pretty much all hands on deck for the Nets. Up-and-down the lineup, everybody’s taking shots, crashing the boards, hustling for loose balls, doing whatever they can to contribute, and for Finney-Smith, his shining attribute has been his rebounding as of late.

So, I’ll back DFS to have a solid night on the glass in Friday’s matchup against a Bulls squad that posted the second-worst offensive rating in the league across their 7-12 skid prior to the All-Star Break (108.8 ORtg).

Bet On Finney-Smith!

Michael's Triple Threat Tracker: 50-32-2 (+1,271)

  • Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (-110) vs. MIA
  • Hornets-Timberwolves Over 240.5 (-110)
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (BKN) Over 5.5 Rebounds (+105) @ CHI
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