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NFL Notebook - Week 4

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Editor’s Note: Stephen Nover is coming off a 7-1 (88%) weekend in the NFL. Don’t miss out on his winners for Week 4. Click to win!

It used to be nearly automatic to go under an NFL total above 50.

Not anymore. Due to increased scoring, it's now perilous to buck an over/under in this range.

Through Week 3 there were three totals above 51. All three went over.

The Chargers-Patriots in Week 2 had a total of 53 ½ points. There were 56 points scored. Then, this past week, New England-Buffalo had a 55-point total and Houston-New Orleans had a 51 ½-point number. The Patriots and Bills combined for 65 points, while there was a staggering 73 points scored in the Saints' 40-33 victory against the Texans.

It may be psychologically difficult to go over an NFL total above 50, but when the Patriots and Saints are involved it's either play over or avoid the total.

One of the many strengths of Vince Lombardi was making halftime adjustments. The Lombardi Packers almost owned the third quarter. The opposite of Lombardi is the Vikings' Leslie Frazier.

Minnesota has had double-digit halftime leads in all three of its games. I don't know what Frazier said during these halftimes, but Minnesota ended up losing every game compiling just 15 second-half first downs and six points.

If the Vikings lose to Kansas City Sunday, it officially will be rebuilding time in Minnesota. It also should mark the end of Frazier's head coaching career.

Jay Cutler has been taking some criticism for his negative body language on the field. Cutler, though, is only human. Since coming to the Bears in 2009, Cutler has been sacked 101 times, the highest three-year figure in the NFL.

Chances are you're not doing well in your fantasy football league if you own Chris Johnson, Frank Gore or DeAngelo Williams. Gore is averaging a puny 2.5 yards per carry - and that's better than Johnson (2.1 yards) and Williams (2.4).

It's not only ironic, but perhaps telling that all three of these runners signed new big-money contracts before this season. Williams may not even be the best running back on Carolina, which has Jonathan Stewart.

Michael Vick is the most exciting player in the NFL, but he still does dumb things such as ripping NFL officials for not protecting quarterbacks. Since 2005 the league has gone too far to actually protect quarterbacks.

After Tom Brady was injured in 2008, the league toughened up its rules on low hits. Vick, Tony Romo, Andy Dalton and Kerry Collins have been the only quarterbacks to get hurt this season and none of their injuries has so far caused them to miss the next game.

Chan Gaily is my early nomination for coach of the year. The Buffalo Bills are undefeated despite having major talent deficiencies. Gaily has gotten the most of his heady, but weak-armed journeyman-type quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick by putting together an effective spread offense. This keeps the Bills' below-average offensive line from being exposed while playing to Fitzpatrick's strength.

NFL Hot Streaks
4-0 Sun., 13-5 G-Plays, 5-0 Thurs.
11-5 Picks, 8-4 L5 Mon, 20-9 Totals
6-3 G-Plays, 26-12 (68%) This Year
5-1 L2 Sundays, 2-0 L2 Guarantees
5-1 Picks, 6-1 Totals, 4-1 G-Plays
22-10 Last 4 NFL Sundays
5-1 L2 Sundays, 5-2 G-Plays TY
3-1 Record Last Sunday
2-0 +260 Sunday, 5-2 L7 G-Plays
4-1 L5 G-Plays, 5-0 Thursdays
8-2 L10 G-Plays, 16-9 L25 Picks
5-1 Last 6 Guaranteed Plays
8-4 L12 NFL Guarantees
4-1 Record Last Sunday
7-3 Last 10 NFL Totals
Money Leaders
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Mark Franco + 1270
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Scott Rickenbach + 565
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Scott Rickenbach + 390
Micah Roberts + 360
MIT Simulator + 195
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Handicapper Pct
Mark Franco 68 %
Scott Rickenbach 61 %
Joe Nelson 59 %
Guaranteed Leaders
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Scott Rickenbach + 755
Brian Edwards + 470
Kevin Rogers + 335
Over-Under Leaders
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Micah Roberts + 995
MIT Simulator + 480
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Member Leaders
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Mark Franco + 600
Jim Feist + 380
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