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Vegas gambles with Baldwin Prop


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Major Props for a Unique Super Bowl Prop Bet

If you were to ask a gambler what their favorite betting day of the calendar year is, there’s a good chance the answer might simply be “Super Bowl Sunday.” And that comes with good reason.

When it comes to handicapping the almighty Super Bowl -- the general consensus biggest event on television all year -- you literally have the opportunity to bet the game from any possible angle, whether that be the amount of turnovers, the number of field goals made in the first quarter, the total receiving yards by the third-string tight end (Michael Hoomanawanui has his first career prop!), and so on. And it’s not just limited to in-game activity, as one could also make a wager on the coin toss, the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning team’s head coach, the over/under of the national anthem, and even the final television rating for the game, amongst countless others.

Yes, there’s a plethora of different ways to make money off the Super Bowl, but sometimes it might require the most creative of ideas -- like betting on the number of rushing attempts by a wide receiver who ran the ball a grand total of one time throughout all 16 regular season contests.

Wait, what?

Let’s start it like this: The Seattle Seahawks ran the ball more than any other NFC team in 2014, registering 525 total rush attempts, and if not for the Houston Texans’ extremely aggressive rushing attack, they would have led the entire NFL in that particular offensive category.

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Furthermore, 11 different Seahawk players were given at least one carry, with only two of those individuals ending up having more than 100 rushes, those of course being superstar running back Marshawn Lynch and scrambling quarterback Russell Wilson.

Buried amongst the rest happens to be the club’s leading wide receiver Doug Baldwin, who managed a single carry for all 16 games combined, not to mention both postseason games as well. So in other words, Baldwin ran the ball only once in the 18 games that the Seahawks have played during the 2014-15 campaign.

And Las Vegas is actually letting you bet on his number of rush attempts in the Super Bowl. SBXLIX Prop Sheet

Of course, the line is currently set at over/under 0.5, meaning that Baldwin needs to run only once to decide the bet. But considering he’s only been given one carry during the regular and postseason -- and just four times overall in his 62 career games, spanning four full seasons -- the chances of him not recording a rush attempt are obviously in your favor.

But now here comes the tough part: Just what exactly are the odds Vegas will be giving you for something -- Baldwin to not run the football -- that happened literally 99.8 percent of the time?

How about only -320?... Wait, what?

Generally, -320 odds are not very friendly, but given the exact predicament at stake, that’s as friendly a bet as you’re going to find for Super Bowl Sunday. By comparison, you also have the opportunity to bet on there not being an extra point missed, which carries ridiculous, albeit understandable, -1600 odds, and that’s something that involves a 99.3 percent success rate (There were eight extra point misses in 2014 out of 1,230 attempts). In that sense, there’s actually a slightly better percentage that Baldwin doesn’t record a rush attempt compared to there being no missed extra point, and you can have it for a fifth of the price!

The No. 1 Seattle wideout has made great strides since entering the league in 2011, and is coming off a campaign that saw him lead the Seahawks in targets (98), receptions (66), and receiving yards (825). But at the end of the day, that’s exactly what he is: a possession receiver who runs good routes and has become solid in creating separation, but he’s a last-resort option for any type of trick running play. Plus, he’ll have his hands full with Darrelle Revis, long considered one of the game’s top cornerbacks, so his main task should just be concerned with figuring out New England’s shutdown corner.

Given the potential trickery from Seattle mastermind Pete Carroll, it’s hard to recommend putting thousands on this bet because anything is always possible. But if you’re ideally seeking an easy $100 or $200, this is a bet that almost has to be considered mandatory for its relatively generous odds, which also may give you extra leverage in another bet you feel very fond about.

With this gambling play-call now out in the open, hopefully it doesn’t give the energetic Carroll a sneaky idea for Sunday. Nonetheless, it’s absolutely a bet worth making in helping close out your football gambling season.

Safest Normal Prop: Tom Brady OVER 37.5 Attempts (-115)

In all eight games this year that the Patriots played in that were decided by 15 points or less, including postseason (But not including Week 17 when the starters didn’t play the second half), Tom Brady threw the ball at least 35 times, so think of that as your absolute worst-case scenario for this affair. In most of those instances, he easily topped 37 attempts, and should go well over that mark once again in a game like this that figures to be close. This is arguably the most important Super Bowl of Brady’s career, given how long it’s been since he last won the big one, and it’s also extra personal for the future Hall of Fame quarterback, considering the Deflate-gate nonsense and all the controversy the Patriots have been muddled in over the years. When a game has that type of magnitude then, that means New England will probably lean on their franchise leader more than usual to pace them -- especially with a Super Bowl Championship on the line -- and that should indicate a heavy dose of passing. Perhaps most importantly, when the Patriots and Seahawks last squared off in 2012, Brady recorded a whopping 58 passing attempts. As a result, this might be the most comfortable player prop bet to make out of all the ones with normal odds.

Best Value Prop: NO Team to have Three Unanswered Scores (+200)

As mentioned in the analysis above, this Super Bowl encounter between the Patriots and Seahawks should be close, and perhaps more likely than not, may ultimately be decided by just one score in the final outcome. When a game is close, typically it consists of the back-and-forth variety, and with how talented both teams are, along with their usual sense of urgency that is on display for all 60 minutes of any given football game, it should be a tightly-contested affair. At the same time, it’s also ironic to take such a prop bet with these two specific teams, considering how both have established a reputation for being able to blow out any opponent, whether it be a bottom-feeder or an upper echelon organization, on any given Sunday, but on the surface, this really should be an even battle between two behemoths. In the process, it should create a very even ballgame, and if it’s back-and-forth as anticipated, that means no team will be able to build up a big lead at any point, which points to no team scoring three consecutive unanswered times. At +200, this definitely makes for an enticing bet.



  
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