Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:02 AM
Total Talk - Week 4
Week 3 Recap
For the second consecutive week, bettors saw an 8-8 stalemate in the totals market. Players who took ‘over’ 46 in the Baltimore-Denver certainly had a gripe to be angry as the pair combined for 34 points in the first-half before closing with just seven total points in the final 30 minutes.
That was the theme for Week 3 and for the first time this season we finally saw teams cool off in the second-half. Savvy bettors playing the low side in the final 30 minutes watched the ‘under’ go 12-2-2 last week.
|2018 Total Results - Game & Halves|
|2018 Results - Other|
Keep an Eye On
Six teams have seen the ‘over’ connect in all three of their games this season.
Kansas City is averaging 39.3 points per game, ranked first in the league. The Chiefs also own the third-worst scoring defense (30.7 PPG) and the way their going, we could see their totals reach the sixties this season especially with upcoming games at the Patriots and Rams.
Only two clubs have seen the ‘under’ start 3-0 – Arizona and Dallas. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Cardinals (6.7 PPG) and Cowboys (13.7 PPG) are ranked 32nd and 31st respectively in scoring offense. Dallas actually has a solid defense (17.7 PPG) and as bad as Arizona has looked, they’re only allowing 24.7 PPG.
There are two games with totals listed in the thirties as of Saturday morning – Jets at Jaguars and Seahawks at Cardinals. Through three weeks, we’ve had two totals this season close under 40 and the ‘under’ went 2-0 in those contests, rather easily too.
A popular “Total Talk” feature that I’ve touched on in the past focuses on a ‘Thursday Night Total’ system and it has started 2-0 this season. VI expert Matt Blunt covered it in his weekly Hot & Not report. The system calls for finding out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and playing the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. The Browns-Raiders game would fit this week’s angle.
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 4 as of Saturday morning per [...].
Cincinnati at Atlanta: 48 to 53 ½
Seattle at Arizona: 37 to 39
New Orleans at New York: 49 to 51
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 4 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Miami at New England: Over 93%
Seattle at Arizona: Over 92%
Cleveland at Oakland: Over 91%
New Orleans at N.Y. Giants: Over 90%
Cincinnati at Atlanta: Over 82%
Miami at New England: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series. This year’s New England squad has looked very sluggish offensively (19 PPG) through three games but it has shown the ability to dice up Miami at Foxboro, averaging 30.3 PPG in the last 10 encounters versus the Dolphins from Gillette Stadium.
Houston at Indianapolis: The ‘under’ has connected in four of the last five meetings between the pair and based on what we’ve seen so far offensively from both the Colts (20 PPG) and Texans (19.7 PPG) this season, it’s hard to justify an ‘over’ lean. Despite the poor production, the books are expecting points to be scored with this week's total (47).
Seattle at Arizona: One of the lowest totals on the board in Week 4 and the last three divisional games between these teams played in the desert all went ‘under’ the number. Arizona only averaged 9.3 PPG in those games and this year’s offense (6.7 PPG) is ranked last in the league. Rookie QB Josh Rosen will get the start for the Cardinals on Sunday.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: (See Below)
Kansas City at Denver: (See Below)
NFC vs. AFC
We’ve had solid back-and-forth total results (7-7) in the first 14 non-conference games this season and Week 4 offers up a quartet of AFC-NFC matchups.
Cincinnati at Atlanta: This total has been juiced up for this matchup and it’s hard to make a case for the low side. Looking above, you can see that games played inside this season have been strong ‘over’ bets (6-3) and the Falcons (2-0) have contributed to that mark. The Atlanta defense has been decimated with key injuries and it’s hard to imagine them holding anybody down as the season progresses. The Bengals offense (29.7 PPG) has had a nice start to the season and they’ve been scoring TDs (11) instead of FGs (4). Cincy has watched the ‘over’ cash in all three games this season.
Buffalo at Green Bay: The Packers have watched the ‘over’ go 3-0 this season and the lack of defense (27.7 PPG) has certainly helped that record. Buffalo is coming off a big upset and even though they’ve posted 27 and 20 points the last two weeks, the offense is only averaging 246 yards per game (31st).
Philadelphia at Tennessee: Low total (41) posted for this matchup and we haven’t seen much pop from either offense this season but they’ve both had to deal with QB issues. Normally I would lean to the ‘under’ based on the form, but the Philadelphia defense looks like a different unit on the road and that’s help produce a 6-2 ‘over’ mark in their last eight contests as visitors.
San Francisco at L.A. Chargers: The Chargers were a great ‘under’ bet last season (11-5) and that was attributed to a very solid defense. This year’s unit has been hampered by injuries and they’re the second worst scoring defense (31 PPG) in the league. That weak production has helped the Bolts go ‘over’ in all of their first three games. San Francisco will start C.J. Beathard at QB after losing Jimmy Garoppolo for the season last week. Beathard is clearly a drop-off at the position and the line (LA -10 ½) reflects that. Make a note that San Francisco watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 in its last five games against AFC foes and it’s averaged 29 PPG.
Under the Lights
For the second straight week, we watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in the primetime games. Overall, the ‘under’ has gone 6-5 on the season and the most recent night games were wild shootouts which includes Thursday’s back-and-forth outcome between the Vikings and Rams.
SNF – Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The recent trend in this series has watched the last two meetings in Pennsylvania go ‘over’ easily (39-38, 31-27) while the two outcomes in Maryland (26-9, 21-14) were ‘under’ tickets. Even though the offensive units for the Ravens (32.3 PPG) and Steelers (29.3 PPG) have been lighting up the scoreboard this season, we haven’t seen a total (50 ½) in this neighborhood in any of the previous 30 meetings.
MNF – Kansas City at Denver: The Chiefs-Over combination has been golden for bettors this season and they’ll be pressing the action for this matchup. Based on the recent outcomes in this series, it’s hard to argue against it with the Chiefs winning the last five against the Broncos and the ‘over’ has gone 4-0-1 in those games.
The late score in the Dolphins-Raiders game kept us out of the black and the teaser was upended early. Still, a couple easy winners kept the deficit low ($10) and the overall bankroll ($175) is still up after 12 wagers. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: New Orleans-New York 52
Best Under: Buffalo-Green Bay 44 ½
Best Team Total: Under Bills 17 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 46 Cincinnati-Atlanta
Under 54 Tampa Bay-Chicago
Over 33 ½ Philadelphia-Tennessee
Chris David can be reached at [email protected]