Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:02 AM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 6
Editor's Note: Don't miss out on NFL winners from Micah Roberts on VegasInsider.com this season. Click to win!
There's a possibility of light snow in Denver on Sunday when the 2-3 Broncos welcome the 5-0 Rams high flying offense and both public and sharp money have already shown who they like in the match-up.
"We've had some sharp action on the Broncos (+7) and maybe it's because of the possible weather conditions," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "The the public are sticking with the Rams and betting them on parlays and teasers."
Simbal said the Rams are their largest parlay risk game of the week so far, and coupled with the Patriots would be the worse two-teamer of the house as of Friday afternoon. He has the Rams -7 EVEN now.
The sharp/public divide on the Rams game is the same at William Hill's 100s of books across Nevada and all the other states they've laid claim to. They've taken 59 percent of all the cash on the game on the Broncos, but 69 percent of the tickets have been written on the Rams.
When the weekend crowd hits Las Vegas, that ticket percentage number is only going to climb and it will end up being the root game for most books to winning or losing on the day. If the Rams win and cover, all the other winners scattered around in Week 6 Sunday action will filter into the 3-2 Patriots who are 3.5-point home favorites to the 5-0 Chiefs.
"We've got lots already on the Patriots," Simbal said. "We've just been moving the money rather than move to -3.5 and we're up to -3 (-125) now."
Most books in Las Vegas are either -3.5 flat or -3.5 EVEN, so that could be the reason for CG books getting so much from smarts laying just -3 -120 when moving off the number is probably worth a 25 cent buy since it's the most landed on number in the NFL.
I have a feeling the weekend crowd that arrives is going to balance the game out for the house with wagers on the Chiefs. Yes, the Patriots have won and covered all three of their home games, but from my psychological approach into the minds of the betting masses, they'll more value on the Chiefs getting points just because they're the only team to be a perfect 5-0 ATS. That means if the Rams cover at Denver, that both the Chiefs and Patriots be equally risky with parlay liability.
Those are the two biggie games of Week 6 and it makes sense with the three of the best and most popular betting teams involved, a group the Broncos used to be part of. It used to be the case where if Denver was a home dog, it was a no-brainer to take the points against anyone, but these Rams have earned the right to be the NFL's top-rated team. Denver is 0-4-1 ATS, the only team to not cover a spread this season.
Of course, there are some other games that matter in Week 6.
"The interesting thing about the Bears-Dolphins game is that we've had two separate sharp groups bet each side," said Simbal who moved the Bears from -3-flat, up the money ladder to -3 -125 and he's now -3.5 (-105).
William Hill books have taken 75 percent of their cash on the game on the Bears and also 75 percent of the tickets written. The Bears come in with the No. 1 defense and have won their last three while the Dolphins have lost their last two -- both on the road. Is this a small case of bettors believing more what they saw last than remembering Miami won and covered their first three games?
"We're also going to need the Bills quite a bit, we've had lots of big bets on Houston since DeShaun Watson (chest) was upgraded to probable," Simbal said. "They could have laid -7 earlier in the week when he was questionable, all the way up to -9.5, but they laid -10 and we're currently at Texans -10 (-115)."
That's one that has me scratching my head. Houston has underperformed, sure, but they have a pattern developing -- such as 1-9 ATS in their last 10 -- that suggest they're only 4 points better on a neutral field. The Bills have won and covered against playoff teams from last season, Minnesota and Tennessee.
"We had some respected money lay -3 with the Jaguars at Dallas, and then took a couple total plays as well," said Simbal. They like the Vikings game Over 43 and the Jets game Over 45 and then they took the Unders on the Patriots game (59.5) and Bills game (41)."
CG Tech books have the Jaguars -3 (-120), like most books in town, but the Wynn is at -3.5 EVEN and the South Point is -3-flat, bit telling stories in different ways.
Good luck this week everyone, go back and get that money back from the books most left there last Sunday.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.