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NFL

Sunday Blitz – Week 6

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
GAMES TO WATCH

Bears (-3 ½, 41 ½) at Dolphins – 1:00 PM EST

These two squads are going in different directions as Chicago (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) is fresh off the bye week. Following a Week 1 meltdown loss at Green Bay, the Bears have turned things around to sit atop the NFC North after winning three straight games. The latest victory was the most impressive offensive performance so far as quarterback Mitchell Trubisky threw for 354 yards and six touchdowns in a 48-10 home blowout of Tampa Bay. The Bears put together a 1-6 SU/ATS mark as a favorite from 2015-17, but are 2-0 SU/ATS this season when laying points.

The Dolphins (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) began the season with three consecutive wins, but fell on the road the last two weeks at New England and Cincinnati. Miami built a 17-0 advantage at Cincinnati last Sunday, but allowed 27 unanswered points, capped off by two defensive touchdowns in a 27-17 defeat as 6 ½-point underdogs. However, the best offensive performances from Miami have come at home, scoring 27 and 28 points in two victories at Hard Rock Stadium.

Miami dominated Chicago in its previous matchup at Soldier Field in 2014 as three-point underdogs, 27-14. The Dolphins have hit the OVER in each of their two home games, as Miami tries to improve on a 6-3-1 ATS record at Hard Rock Stadium under head coach Adam Gase. Chicago is riding a 6-1 run to the UNDER in its last seven road contests, while Chicago’s defense has limited opponents to 17 points or fewer in three straight contests.

Best Bet: Bears 17, Dolphins 16

Steelers at Bengals (-2, 51 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh (2-2-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) was in desperate need of a win last Sunday and came through in a 41-17 home blowout of slumping Atlanta. The Steelers reached the end zone six times, including a pair of connections by Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown to give Pittsburgh its first win at Heinz Field this season. Pittsburgh scored its most points on the season, while allowing the fewest in a game, as the Steelers busted the OVER for the fourth time in five contests.

The Bengals (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) are sitting atop the AFC North through five weeks, as Cincinnati is looking for its second divisional win of the season. Cincinnati cashed the OVER in each of the first four games before hitting the UNDER in last Sunday’s comeback triumph against Miami. The Bengals’ offense didn’t produce much as Andy Dalton hit Joe Mixon on an 18-yard touchdown pass to start a 24-0 rally in the fourth quarter.

Pittsburgh has owned Cincinnati the last few seasons by winning the past six meetings since 2015. The Steelers haven’t lost at Paul Brown Stadium since 2013, while owning an 11-2-1 mark against divisional foes dating back to 2016. This is a big two-week stretch for Cincinnati, who travels to Kansas City for a Sunday night affair next week and can be in the running for a first-round bye or falling back in the AFC North as Pittsburgh starts a three-game period against the division.

Best Bet: Bengals 28, Steelers 24

Jaguars (-3, 40 ½) at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST

Jacksonville (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) makes its first trip to Dallas since a 35-17 victory in 2010 as 6 ½-point underdogs. Now, the roles are flipped (albeit eight years later) as the Jaguars try to rebound from last Sunday’s 30-14 drubbing at Kansas City. The Jags had their opportunities in the first half, but couldn’t convert on fourth-and-one at the Chiefs’ three-yard line, lost a fumble, Blake Bortles threw a pick-six, and was finally intercepted in the end zone with 19 seconds remaining before halftime as they fell behind, 20-0.

Dallas (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) has been consistently inconsistent this season as the Cowboys have yet to win consecutive games and haven’t dropped back-to-back contests. So does that mean Dallas will win this week? The Cowboys dropped a 19-16 overtime decision at Houston last Sunday night, as running back Ezekiel Elliott was limited to a season-low 54 yards on the ground. The Cowboys fell to 0-3 on the road, but Dallas is unbeaten in two home contests by beating the Giants and Lions.

Under head coach Doug Marrone, the Jaguars have done an excellent job of rebound off a loss since the start of 2017. Jacksonville owns a 6-1 record in this span, while not allowing more than 15 points in any of these contests. The Cowboys have stumbled to a 2-5 ATS mark as an underdog since 2017, which includes a 1-2 ATS record at AT&T Stadium last season.

Best Bet: Jaguars 23, Cowboys 17

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (3-2 last week, 14-9-2 on season)
Chargers -1
Dolphins +3
Buccaneers +3 ½
Broncos +6 ½
Patriots -3 ½

Chris David (5-0 last week, 17-8 on season)
Vikings -10
Chargers -1
Colts +2 ½
Texans -9 ½
Titans +2 ½

SURVIVOR PICKS

Kevin Rogers (4-1)
Texans over Bills

Chris David (4-1)
Texans over Bills

BEST TOTAL PLAY (0-1 last week, 3-2 this season)

UNDER 51 ½ - Rams at Broncos

Temperatures are not expected to be ideal in Colorado on Sunday as kickoff should be in the low 20’s along with the chance of light snow flurries. The Rams have scored at least 33 points in each of their first five games (all wins), while allowing 31 points in each of the past two weeks against the Vikings and Seahawks. The Broncos’ offense hasn’t accomplished much since scoring 27 points in the opening week win against Seattle, as Denver has been limited 20 points or fewer in three of the past four weeks. Denver’s defense stepped up in its only home underdog opportunity against Kansas City by holding the Chiefs to 13 points for the first 52 minutes before the Chiefs posted two late touchdowns for the win.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

When will the Falcons get back on track? Atlanta sits at the bottom of the NFC South through five weeks with a 1-4 record, while allowing 43, 37, and 41 points the past three games. The Falcons host the Buccaneers on Sunday as the dreaded three-point home favorite, while Tampa Bay is fresh off the bye week. Tampa Bay should be focused following a 48-20 drubbing at Chicago, while trying to avenge a pair of losses to Atlanta last season. In Jameis Winston’s last three matchups with Atlanta, the Bucs’ quarterback has thrown 10 touchdown passes and has been intercepted only once, as he looks to have a field day against the beat-up Falcons’ secondary.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Bills didn’t look like they would win a game all season following blowout losses to the Ravens and Chargers in the first two weeks. But, Buffalo is trying to keep its head above water after beating Minnesota and Tennessee in the last few weeks to get to 2-3. The Bills travel to Houston to face the Texans as this game opened with Houston as 8 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook. With the news of quarterback Deshaun Watson now listed as probable, the line has moved to the Texans laying 10 points at most books, the most points Houston has been favored by in the Bill O’Brien era.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Redskins were blitzed by the Saints on Monday night as Drew Brees broke the NFL record for most passing yards in a career. Washington looks to reset things at home against Carolina as the Redskins have thrived in this situation. What’s the situation? Under head coach Jay Gruden, the Redskins have compiled an impressive 8-1-1 home record since 2015 off a loss or tie on the road.

Want FREE picks for Week 6 in the NFL? Check them out here for the top three games of the weekend along with other insider selections.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.

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