Oct 14, 2018
MNF - 49ers at Packers
The 49ers (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) suffered their third consecutive loss and fell to 0-2 without Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting quarterback. After a valiant effort in a two-point road loss to the Chargers as 10-point underdogs in Week 4, San Francisco was surprised at home by a previously winless Arizona squad, 28-18. However, the final score doesn’t tell the entire story at Levi’s Stadium.
San Francisco outgained Arizona, 447-220 in the yardage department, while holding the ball for over 40 minutes. The nail in the coffin for the 49ers was five turnovers, including three lost fumbles and a pair of interceptions thrown by quarterback C.J. Beathard, who finished with 349 yards through the air. The difference for this struggling Arizona team was a 75-yard touchdown connection between rookies Josh Rosen and Christian Kirk, while the Cardinals’ defense returned a fumble recovery for a score as the two teams combined for 26 fourth quarter points to finish OVER the total of 40 ½.
The Packers (2-2-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) are trying to find their footing following an up and down start as Green Bay fell behind early in a 31-23 setback at Detroit last Sunday. The Lions built a 24-0 halftime lead before the Packers made it interesting in the second half by outscoring Detroit, 23-7. The normally reliable Mason Crosby missed four field goals and an extra point for Green Bay, while the Packers also lost three fumbles in the defeat.
Crosby knocked down a field goal in the final seconds for a late morale boost, as the Packers have allowed 29 points or more in their three non-victories. Aaron Rodgers tossed up 442 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, the first game this season that the Green Bay star quarterback has thrown for at least 300 yards. The bad news is Green Bay suffered its first divisional loss in three tries this season, as Detroit and Minnesota are the only teams in the NFC North without a defeat to a divisional foe.
In Kyle Shanahan’s first season as head coach of the 49ers, San Francisco owned a solid 5-2 ATS record in the role of a road underdog. However, that number has not transferred over to the season as the Niners have stumbled to a 1-2 SU/ATS mark away from Levi’s Stadium (all as an underdog). Granted, the competition has been stiff by facing the Vikings, Chiefs, and Chargers with the only cover coming in a 29-27 setback at Los Angeles in Week 4 as 10-point underdogs. In the first eight weeks of the season dating back to 2015, the Niners own a dreadful 0-15 SU and 5-10 ATS record on the highway.
UNDER THE LIGHTS
The Packers have won in three of their last four appearances on Monday night football dating back to 2014. The only loss in this stretch came last season against the Lions at home, but Rodgers was out due to the collarbone injury he suffered three weeks prior. The last time Green Bay lost with Rodgers starting and ending a Monday night game came in the infamous “Fail Mary” loss to Seattle in 2012.
Who would have thought that the 49ers own a nine-game winning streak on Monday night dating back to 2010? It’s true, the last time San Francisco fell on a Monday night was back in Week 2 of 2010 in a 25-22 home setback to New Orleans. During this nine-game hot streak, the Niners have covered eight times, including recent underdog wins over the Rams (2016) and Vikings (2015). The Niners haven’t played a road Monday nighter since 2014, when San Francisco went into St. Louis and routed the Rams, 31-17.
These two teams had plenty of dramatic playoff moments by meeting five times from 1998 through 2014 with the 49ers winning three times. Granted, that was a long time ago, even though Rodgers was knocked out twice by San Francisco in the postseason in the 2012 and 2013 campaigns. In the most recent regular season matchup in 2015 at Levi's Stadium, the Packers cruised past the 49ers, 17-3 to easily cash as 7½-point road favorites.
NFL expert Joe Nelson points out the Packers should get on track simply due to their success at Lambeau Field, “Green Bay is 27-9-1 SU at home since the start of the 2014 season with a 22-14-1 ATS run though there has been a short term 3-5 ATS slide since last October. Many of those late season losses last season came without Rodgers and while the two-time MVP has played most of the snaps this season, he hasn’t matched his career numbers while playing at less than 100 percent since sustaining a knee injury in Week 1.”
The running game will definitely be a factor in this contest as both these teams are sitting in the top-10, “San Francisco and Green Bay have had surprising success running the ball, sitting 4th and 9th respectively in yards per rush this season. San Francisco is also in the league’s top 5 in yards per rush allowed defensively. Both teams are also in the top 10 in yards per pass attempt allowed as the defenses have posted more successful numbers than expected,” Nelson notes.
GAME PROPS – Courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Superbook
Total Completions – C.J. Beathard
OVER 22 ½ (-110)
UNDER 22 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – C.J. Beathard
OVER 1 ½ (+150)
UNDER 1 ½ (-180)
Total Gross Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers
OVER 292 ½ (-110)
UNDER 292 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Aaron Rodgers
OVER 2 ½ (+120)
UNDER 2 ½ (-140)
Total Receiving Yards – Davante Adams
OVER 83 ½ (-110)
UNDER 83 ½ (-110)
Will Davante Adams score a touchdown?
The Packers opened up as 10-point favorites, but that number has dropped to 9 ½ at several books and even down to nine at the Westgate Superbook. The total hasn’t seen much movement, staying at 46 ½ for most of the week as both the Packers and 49ers are currently 4-1 to the OVER this season.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at [email protected]
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