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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 14:01 PM

MNF - Patriots at Bills

Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers ranks second in NFL guarantee plays this season while winning six of his last nine guarantees. He is locked and loaded with Monday's guarantee AFC East winner. Click to win!

LAST WEEK

The Patriots (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) are back in control of the AFC East after holding off the Bears, 38-31. New England was able to score a pair of non-offensive touchdowns as Cordarrelle Patterson returned a kickoff 95 yards for a score and Kyle Van Noy picked up a blocked punt and brought it back for the tie-breaking touchdown in the third.

Tom Brady did his thing for the Patriots for throwing three touchdown passes, the fourth time this season the future Hall-of-Famer has posted a trio of touchdown tosses. Running back James White hauled in a pair of touchdowns from Brady, while recently acquired Josh Gordon picked up his first 100-yard game since joining New England in Week 4. Tight end Rob Gronkowski missed the victory with a back injury but is expected to suit up on Monday.

The Bills (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) have been an utter disaster at times this season, as Buffalo seemed to be moving in the right direction with rookie quarterback Josh Allen. However, the former Wyoming standout suffered an elbow injury in a 20-13 loss at Houston in Week 7. So Buffalo had to turn to journeyman quarterback Derek Anderson against Indianapolis, who was intercepted three times in a 37-5 drubbing to the Colts.

Running back LeSean McCoy left early after only two carries for one yard due to a head injury, but should play on Monday. Since scoring 27 points in a rout of Minnesota in Week 3, the Bills have scored a total of 31 points in the last four games, while ranking last in the NFL with 81 points on the season.

UNDER THUNDER

Due to Buffalo’s lack of offense, the Bills are turning into a solid team to back on the UNDER on a weekly basis. The Bills are currently on a five-game UNDER streak as none of those contests have closed with a total of higher than 43 ½, while not busting the 13-point mark in each of the past four weeks.

The last OVER for the Bills cashed in Week 2 at home against the Chargers in a 31-20 loss on a 41 ½ total. Monday’s total will be the highest for the Bills this season at 44 ½, while this is the lowest total for New England since Week 2 against Jacksonville (also 44 ½).

PATS GOING TO PAT

Although New England is currently on a three-game OVER streak, the Patriots have lit up the scoreboard since a 1-2 start. After getting blasted at Detroit in Week 3, the Patriots have scored 38, 38, 43, and 38 points the past four weeks. To put this scoring run in perspective, New England never scored 38 points or more in four consecutive games back in their undefeated regular season run of 2007, a year that they finished with the second-most points in a season in NFL history with 589.

SERIES HISTORY

Since getting shut out at Buffalo in the 2003 season opener, the Patriots have won 13 of the past 14 matchups at New Era Field. Buffalo’s last home win against New England came in 2011 as a seven-point underdog, 34-31. Since that upset, the margin of victory for the Patriots in western New York has been 24, 2, 15, 8, 16, and 20. Last season, the Pats blasted the Bills as 7 ½-point road favorites, 23-3.

The Bills have dropped five of the past six meetings overall with the Patriots since 2015 as the lone victory came in 2016 at Gillette Stadium, 16-0*. Yes, there is an asterisk next to that score as Brady was serving the final game of his Deflategate suspension. In the next meeting in Buffalo, the Patriots ripped the Bills, 41-25 behind four touchdown passes from Brady.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Patriots have appeared on Monday Night Football once in each of the past five seasons, compiling a 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS mark. All three losses have come on the road at Miami (2017), Kansas City (2014), and Carolina (2013), as New England’s last Monday night away victory came in the 2011 opener at Miami.

New England and Buffalo last met on a Monday night at Gillette Stadium in 2015 as the Patriots held off the Bills, 20-13 as seven-point favorites. The Bills are 0-5 on Mondays since 2007, but Buffalo has compiled a 2-1-1 ATS mark as an underdog, while hosting a Monday game for the first time since 2008 against Cleveland.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on this AFC East matchup. As mentioned earlier, the Bills’ offense has continued to struggle, but Nelson notes that Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been too bad, “Buffalo has held four of the last five opponents to 22 or fewer points as the defense has been capable. Buffalo is third in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed surrendering only 6.7 yards per attempt to only trail Baltimore and Jacksonville in that category. Buffalo has allowed 13 passing touchdowns, but has 19 sacks and five interceptions. Buffalo’s offense has given away 16 turnovers however including a league-high 12 interceptions from a trio of marginal quarterbacks.”

The Bills are a heavy underdog as expected, but Buffalo has history on its side according to Nelson, “Since 2007, NFL home underdogs of 10 or more points are 40-20 ATS including going 4-0 ATS (and 2-2 SU) last season. The past six NFL home underdogs of 14 or more points have all covered as well going back to November of 2009. The Patriots have been a double-digit road favorite 11 times under Belichick going 5-6 ATS including losing SU twice in the past four attempts since 2016, both times in Miami.”

GAME PROPS - According to Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards - Tom Brady
OVER 270 ½ (-110)
UNDER 270 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes - Tom Brady
OVER 2 ½ (+120)
UNDER 2 ½ (-140)

Will Tom Brady throw an interception?
YES (-110)
NO (-110)

Total Receiving Yards - Julian Edelman
OVER 57 ½ (-110)
UNDER 57 ½ (-110)

Total Completions - Derek Anderson
OVER 18 ½ (-110)
UNDER 18 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Patriots opened up as 14-point road favorites at the Westgate Superbook last week. There hasn’t been much movement on the side as the Westgate has New England at -13 ½, while many books have kept the Pats at -14. The total has also been steady at 44 ½, the lowest between these teams with Brady starting since 2015, won by the Patriots, 40-32 in Buffalo.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at [email protected]

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.

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