Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:01 AM

Total Talk - Week 10

Week 9 Recap

Another winning week for ‘under’ bettors (7-6) and the low side is now 28-16 (63.6%) over the last three weeks. There wasn’t much action in the second-half in Week 9 and that helped produce a 10-3 ‘under’ record for bettors wagering on the final 30 minutes. Through nine weeks, the ‘under’ sits at 68-66 (50.7%) overall.

2018 Total Results - Game & Halves
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 9 6-7 8-5 3-10
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 66-68 68-66 63-67-4

2018 Results - Other
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 9 2-3 1-3 1-1 0-0
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 21-16 15-23 15-10 5-2

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 10 as of Saturday morning per [...].

Detroit at Chicago: 47 to 44
New Orleans at Cincinnati: 55 ½ to 54
Seattle at L.A. Rams: 51 ½ to 50

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 10 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

N.Y. Giants at San Francisco: Over 91%
L.A. Chargers at Oakland: Under 87%
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Under 86 %
Atlanta at Cleveland: Over 81%
Miami at Green Bay: Under 76%

Divisional Matchups

A large portion of the ‘under’ tickets (23-15) this season have taken place in divisional games and that includes a 3-1 mark to the low side last Sunday. Over the last three weeks, the ‘under’ is 10-2 in these spots and we’ve seen a fair share of duplicate total outcomes in the rematch games.

Week 8: Steelers-Browns (Over, Over)
Week 9: Jets-Dolphins (Under, Under), Steelers-Ravens (Under, Under)

We have five divisional games on tap and two of them are rematches (LA-OAK, SEA-LAR).

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: This is the lowest total (36 ½) on the board and the third time this season that Buffalo has had a total close in the thirties. The ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games but that’s because the Bills allowed 47 in Week 1 to the Ravens and 41 last Sunday to the Bears. Both teams are a mess offensively and each club will be starting backup quarterbacks on Sunday so you could probably argue that the number should be lower. The ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 between the pair over the last two seasons.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Both teams enter with rest (see below) and the week off has done wonders for offensive units this season. Jacksonville dominated Indy last season (27-0, 30-10) but QB Andrew Luck didn’t play in those games. We mention that because he’s 6-2 in his career vs. the Jaguars and the Colts have averaged 28.6 PPG. If you’re leaning high, you need Jacksonville’s offense (16.8 PPG) to improve and that could happen with the return of running back Leonard Fournette.

Detroit at Chicago: Not an easy total to handicap and even though the pro bettors have knocked the number down, the Bears have shown an ‘over’ lean in their last five games (4-1). Detroit started the season with a 5-1 ‘over’ run but its offense has disappeared the last two weeks (14, 9) and that’s led to a pair of ‘under’ tickets. The ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run in this series.

L.A. Chargers at Oakland: These teams met in Week 5 from Los Angeles and the Chargers posted a 26-10 win and the ‘under’ (51 ½) was never in doubt. Less than a month later, they meet in Oakland and the total is in the same neighborhood (50) which has me scratching my head. I usually like to play a vice versa angle in the rematch when the combined points go well below or well above the closing number in the first encounter. This would fit here but the Chargers defense (15 PPG) has been on point in their last four games and the Raiders offense (17.6 PPG) has been inconsistent this season. Make a note that Oakland has played better at home offensively (28.7 PPG) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a solid effort, especially since most bettors will be pressing the three late afternoon favorites this Sunday.

Seattle at L.A. Rams: One of those three favorites is the Rams (-9 ½) and they were handed their first loss last Sunday at New Orleans. Some pundits may label this matchup for L.A. as a ‘sandwich spot’ with the Rams meeting Kansas City in Mexico City next Monday. These teams squared off in Week 5 from Seattle and L.A. earned a 33-31 decision as the ‘over’ (50 ½) connected in the third quarter. Since the Rams moved back to Los Angeles, the pair have played to a pair of low-scoring (9-3, 16-10) games at the Coliseum. The Seahawks have been a solid ‘under’ (6-2) team this season but they’ve only faced two legit offenses (Rams, Chargers) and they allowed 33 and 25 in those games. I don’t put a lot of stock into off-the-field factors since we’re handicapping professionals but if you do use emotional factors in your handicapping, Los Angeles is dealing with its first loss last Sunday plus two unfortunate incidents (shooting, fires) that are much bigger than the game.

Dallas at Philadelphia: (See Below)

Fifty Something

Despite seeing plenty of ‘under’ tickets connect recently at the betting counter, we’ve still got a handful of high numbers posted. Totals that closed in the fifties last weekend watched the ‘over’ go 3-1. If you include this past Thursday’s outcome between the Panthers and Steelers, the ‘over’ is 18-17 in games that closed at 50 or higher.

Listed below are the games with totals listed in the fifties for Week 10 along with their ‘over/under’ record listed in parenthesis.

Atlanta (6-2) at Cleveland (5-4)
New Orleans (4-4) at Cincinnati (5-3)
Washington (3-5) at Tampa Bay (7-1)
L.A. Chargers (5-3) at Oakland (3-5)
Seattle (2-6) at L.A. Rams (4-5)

Bye Bye Rust

I’m going to stick with this section because it’s turning into a great seasonal trend to watch. Teams off the ‘bye’ last week saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their games, pushing the high side to 9-5 (64%) on the season. Make a note that I’m double-counting the Titans-Cowboys outcome from last Monday since they played one another off rest.

Last week, I also touched on the offensive scoring for teams off the bye. The Falcons (38), Titans (28), Chargers (25) and Cowboys (14) combined for an average of 26.3 PPG. Those watching the games know that both Los Angeles and Dallas left points off the board. Regardless, 14 teams off the ‘bye’ are averaging 27.6 PPG in their following game.

Six teams will be playing with rest this week:

Saints at Bengals
Jaguars at Colts (Both teams playing with rest)
Cardinals at Chiefs
Cowboys at Eagles
Giants at 49ers

Under the Lights

Another 2-1 ‘under’ mark last week and the Titans-Cowboys result barely went ‘over’ last Monday. Through 29 games played, the ‘under’ sits at 15-14 and that includes Pittsburgh’s 52-21 shootout win over Carolina this past Thursday, which improved the ‘over’ to 7-3 in the midweek matchup this season. Make a note that the ‘under’ is 7-2 on Sunday Night and Monday’s have been a stalemate (5-5).

Dallas at Philadelphia: The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four meetings but you could toss out two of those results since they were a pair of meaningless Week 17 outcomes. The Eagles are rested and they play much better defensively at home (18 PPG), which is helped the ‘under’ go 3-1. This year’s Dallas squad has been great defensively (18.9 PPG) and terrible on offense (19.2 PPG), especially away from home (13.5 PPG). All four of the Cowboys road games gave gone ‘under’ and I’m surprised this total isn’t closer to 40.

N.Y. Giants at San Francisco: Seems like a high total (44 ½) for a pair of teams that are a combined 3-14 on the season. San Francisco got a great performance from rookie QB Nick Mullens last Thursday in their 34-3 win over Oakland. Can he repeat that effort with a couple extra days to prepare? The Giants (18.8 PPG) haven’t shown much offensively but their best efforts (27, 31, 20) of the season came outside of New York and against non-divisional opponents. The pair have met twice in the last three seasons and the ‘over’ cashed in both games.

Fearless Predictions

Another 3-1 week ($195) kept us rolling and while the Packers-Patriots ‘over’ had a chance, the pace was too slow and Green Bay just wasn’t sharp enough offensively. Hopefully the second-half of the season keeps the bankroll ($730) in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck! 

Best Over: Arizona-Kansas City 49 ½
Best Under: Miami-Green Bay 47 ½
Best Team Total: Over 16 Arizona

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 39 Jacksonville-Indianapolis
Under 44 Buffalo-New York
Under 57 ½ Seattle-L.A. Rams

Chris David can be reached at [email protected]

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