Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:01 AM
Books win again in Week 11
Nevada sports books have things back to normal now. Everything cycles around back to them. The public may have a good week or two during the 17 weeks on the NFL betting season, but the books will always have the edge and they proved it in resounding fashion Sunday in Week 11 action.
"It was the best day of the season for us, said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "We did really well to straight bets with about 50 percent of our win aided by some large wagers. Teasers went well also."
Favorites would go just 3-6-2 ATS with five of the underdogs winning outright. That's bad news for favorite money-line parlay bettors.
Atlantis Reno sports book director Marc Nelson said his shop held just over 30 percent on the day which is absolutely incredible. He said the Cowboys, Saints and Broncos were the best results and noted that they didn't lose a single game on the day. Not one loser.
It was like that all over the state.
"The best game for us was the Lions and the worst was the Giants," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "It was a very good day. The Jags covering was also good."
Simbal was quick to point out he had the Saints one point better than the Rams before the Eagles got crushed. I had asked several [...]s who they had rated higher, the Rams or the Saints. The Rams had been No. 1 in almost everyone's ratings for most of the season, but after they went on a 1-6 ATS run and the defense was gashed the past three weeks, the Saints also got better. On Sunday, they demolished the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, 45-7, the fifth time this season the Saints have scored 40 points or more.
"We had some large Eagles wagers that pushed us from +8.5 to +7 despite action on the Saints in parlays and teasers," Stoneback said.
It was supposed to be a good spot for Eagles, but the Bengals put up a better fight last week in the Saints 51-14 win.
These Saints are definitely looking Super and they hold the home field edge over the Rams if tied at the end of the season by virtue of the Saints 45-35 Week 9 win.
"We're a loser with the Saints in Futures," said Stoneback who has the Saints 5-to-2 after opening them 18-to-1. "The bulk of our risk has come from Mississippi where Saints action has been heavy.
"When we opened the Saints to win the Super Bowl in Mississippi they were 15-to-1 and when we quickly moved to 3-to-1 along the way they still kept betting the Saints."
The Rams are now 13-to-5 to win the Super Bowl and the Saints are Even money to win the NFC now.
Brad Bryant runs the Golden Nugget sports book in Biloxi and he said they won Sunday but gave back a lot with the Saints, which is becoming hugely popular wager down there. Why not? The Saints have now won nine straight and covered the past eight.
"Yeah, I think they're the best," said Bryant of the Saints rating. "The Drew Brees/Sean Payton combo is unbeatable right now."
The first year of sports books down south has been flooded with Saints action on Sunday's and Alabama action on Saturday's. But they're still winning despite.
The biggest upset Sunday was the Broncos' 23-22 win as 7-point underdogs at the Chargers, where the stands in Carson, CA were colored with thousands of orange shirts. The Chargers have the worst home-field edge in the NFL. The Chargers had 14 penalties and Broncos QB Case Keenum didn't throw an interception and came alive with big throws in the fourth quarter to take the lead. The win paid out +260 on the money-line and also destroyed one of the more popular teaser selections of the day. The Chargers-Saints teaser was the most common.
And how about the Bears' 25-20 home win against the Vikings (+3) Sunday night. The game wasn't even as close as the score indicates, but the late Vikings TD sent the game Over 44 total points. It was the Bears signature win of the season and now have some breathing space in the NFC North where they lead with a 7-3 record. The Bears are definitely for real and gaining confidence weekly. They've now won and covered their last four games. The book fared decently with the outcome because the Vikings were a popular wager.
Back to the drawing board for the bettors, but this is a good week for the public beginning with Thanksgiving Day where there are three NFL games that always present difficulties for the house because there are only three games, and six options with the totals. Bettors can't hurt themselves by being greedy. If bettors get the side and total of the first game, [...]s will be sweating big time because risk not only carries over into the next two games Thursday but also into Friday and Saturday's college games and then Sunday. It's a four day betting weekend full of booby-traps for the [...]s.
Have a great Thanksgiving, my friends.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.