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NFL

Opening Line Report – Week 14

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
10 minute read
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It was a strange set of games in Week 13. Underdogs were hitting all over the board, including a double-digit underdog, the Arizona Cardinals, winning outright. Joey Public got buried last Sunday, as generally they play the favorites and that wasn't the place to invest your money. The books, who were hammered a few weeks ago, certainly could use a comeback and Week 13 was it. Rarely, if ever, will books have multiple poor weeks in a season. However, there are plenty of weeks when they clean up, and if they didn't have those weeks frequently Las Vegas would like more like Fargo or Little Rock. In other words, you might beat the house here and there. You might end up ahead at times. Overall, however, the house will end up on top, and that's how Vegas was made.

(Consensus Odds as of Tuesday)

Thursday, Dec. 6

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4.5, 37.5)

The Jaguars surprised the Indianapolis Colts by a 6-0 score last Sunday in Jacksonville, the lowest-scoring game of the 2018 National Football League regular season. Vegas isn't feeling the Jags, as they're moderate 'dogs in the Music City. Westgate SuperBook opened the Titans at -5, but the public is apparently feeling the Jags, as the line is down to -4. Several other books opened the Jags at -4 1/2 and it's also down to -4, and more movement might be likely. The total is on the move, too, ever so slightly. Southpoint opened the game at 38, and it's down to 37 1/2 there and at a majority of the other shops.

Sunday, Dec. 9

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 53)

The Ravens completely shut down the Atlanta Falcons, looking like the Ray Lewis/Ed Reed championship-type defenses. They're a dangerous team, but there are questions under center. QB Lamar Jackson left with an injury, QB Robert Griffin III entered last week and they still rolled along. However, it's uncertain who will be the starter on Sunday.

The Chiefs had a tumultuous week with the Kareem Hunt situation, cutting last season's rushing yardage leader for off-field issues. Both teams have their issues, but people are buying the Ravens right now. The Golden Nugget opened the Chiefs at -7, dropping down to -6 1/2 within a matter of hours. Westgate SuperBook opened the game at -8 1/2 and the line tumbled two points to -6 1/2 in less than 24 hours.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-4.5, 49)

The Colts were blanked, but Vegas isn't buying any offensive issues and is treating it as a one-off. The total is still hovering around 49 at most shops. Southpoint dropped the line slightly from 49 1/2 to 49, while William Hill opened at 49 1/2 with a move down to 48 1/2 within a few hours.

Carolina Panthers (-1.5, 47) at Cleveland Browns

The Panthers are on a four-game freefall, going from 6-2 SU to 6-6 in the blink of an eye. The playoffs looked like a certainty a while ago, but they need to turn things around soon. Despite the improvement in Cleveland, Vegas is still putting belief in the Panthers. The public is feeling the visitors, too. Coasts opened the game as a pick 'em, but the Panthers are up to -1. Golden Nugget and Stratosphere had Carolina at -1, moving to -1 1/2. Not many bettors are feeling 'The Bake Show' and the Browns offense at the moment.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-6, 48.5)

This looked like a marquee game if you thumbed ahead through the NFL schedule a few weeks ago. The Falcons are coming off a week with less than 200 total yards last week, while the Packers will be under the tutelage of interim coach Joe Philbin after giving Mike McCarthy the shoo after Sunday's embarrassing loss.

There hasn't been a lot of movement early on this game, although at Southpoint the line is down from -6 to -5. If you're feeling the Pack under new leadership, that might be the shop for you.

New Orleans Saints (-8, 56) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs surprised the Saints in the Dome in Week 1, and it appeared Tampa Bay was going to have something special while there were questions about New Orleans. Fast forward ahead 13 weeks and my how things have changed. The Saints are a Super Bowl contender, while the Bucs are in line for a Top 10 draft pick.

Westgate opened the game at -9 1/2, and people are buying the Bucs, chopping the line down to -8 in about 24 hours. Coasts and Mirage-MGM is holding steady at -8 1/2.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 38.5)

The Jets blew last week's road game against the Titans. Paraphrasing head coach Todd Bowles, this is going to be one that sticks with him for the rest of his life.

There hasn't been a lot of interest from the public on this game, with just some mild movement. Treasure Island had the game at -3 to open, and it moved to -3 1/2 in favor of the Bills, which is generally where all of the other shops weigh in. Uncertainty at the QB position for the Jets has the total OFF the board at some places.

New England Patriots (-8, 47) at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are technically still in the playoff hunt, but their chances of making the postseason are about as good as UCF's were entering last weekend's college football action.

Teams are feeling the Dolphins at home, as CG Technology opened the Pats at -9, and the money came in on the Dolphins to move it down to -8. At the Stratosphere the line has bounced back and forth between -8 and -8 1/2.

Los Angeles Rams (-3, 52.5) at Chicago Bears

The Rams wrapped up the NFC West Division title last week in Detroit, now they're on Sunday Night Football against a Bears team which was stunned in overtime against the lowly New York Giants. The Rams are still playing for home-field advantage, while the Bears are still in command of the NFC North Division, but they cannot afford many more slip-ups.

The Rams will keep their foot on the gas, but bettors are feeling the Bears. The Rams were favored by -4 at Westgate to open, but it's down to -3. At William Hill the total has been on the move, going from 51 to 53 in a matter of hours to get close to most other shops.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 41.5)

The Redskins lost backup QB Colt McCoy (leg) to a fractured tibia on Monday, so it's time for QB Mark Sanchez to take the reins of the offense. As such, the total is OFF the board at many shops, and the game is OFF the board completely at the Strat. 

Denver Broncos (-5.5, 43.5) at San Francisco 49ers

The Broncos have been on quite the roll lately, ticking off victories against the Chargers, Steelers and, most recently, the Bengals. The Bengals enter the game 6-1 ATS over the past seven and the 'under' is 5-0 in the past five and 9-2 over their past 11, so the line will be fun to watch closely.

There has been a lot of activity, as Atlantis saw the Broncos open -5, go to -6 within a few hours, before slipping back to -5 1/2. Coasts opened the game at -6 1/2, sliding down to -5 1/2, which is where a majority of the shops are holding steady.

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-14, 48)

The Bengals were slapped down by the Broncos at home, and they lost WR A.J. Green (toe) for the remainder of the season, taking away a major weapon for backup QB Jeff Driskel.

The Chargers fought back from a 23-7 deficit in Pittsburgh to win 33-30 on Sunday night, and it's the kind of game which could serve as a springboard for the final month and into the playoffs. There hasn't been a lot of movement on this game yet. If you like the Bengals at 14 and a hook, Coasts is your shop. If you like the Bolts at -13 1/2, if you hurry you can still try Treasure Island.

Detroit Lions (-2.5, 40.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Lions pulled an upset against the Panthers two weeks ago, and the Cardinals won on the road against the Packers last week. In other words, these non-contenders are still playing hard, so this could be a surprisingly interesting game.

Westgate and William Hill each opened this game at -1 1/2, and it quickly moved to -2 1/2 which is in line with most other shops. 

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 41.5)

The Eagles and Cowboys battle is suddenly huge as far as the NFC East top spot is concerned. The Redskins are still in the picture, but injuries likely have killed them. The Cowboys pulled a 13-10 upset over the Saints last week on Thursday, and they have a couple of extra days to rest, while the Eagles head to Texas on a short week. [...] opened the game at -3 1/2 and it moved up to -4. The total has held steady around 41 1/2 at [...], but the total is OFF the board at most Vegas shops as of early Tuesday AM.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-11, 51.5) at Oakland Raiders

The Steelers will be looking to rebound after a hugely disappointing 33-30 loss against the Chargers on SNF last week. The Raiders gave the Chiefs all they could handle before finally falling apart, 40-33.

Oakland covered a double-digit number at home, and they enter the week as 10-plus point underdogs at home in back-to-back weeks for the first time in club history. Early on people have bought the Raiders ever so slightly, moving from 11 1/2 to 11 at Mirage-MGM, Southpoint and Stations, among others.

Monday, Dec. 10

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 45)

The Vikings and Seahawks has turned into a marquee battle, thanks mostly in part to the resurgence of Seattle. They have rattled off three straight wins, going 3-0-1 ATS over the past four, and 6-1-1 ATS across the past eight. The 'over' has hit in four straight for Seattle, too.

Bettors are backing the 'Hawks early, moving from -3 to -3 1/2 at Caesars/Harrah's and Golden Nugget, as well as Southpoint and Westgate SuperBook.







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