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MNF – Vikings at Seahawks

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
LAST WEEK

One season after sitting one victory away from the Super Bowl, the Vikings (6-5-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) are in danger of missing the playoffs. It’s been an up and down season in Minnesota as the Vikings are coming off a 24-10 setback at New England as six-point underdogs. The Vikings trailed 10-0 early before Kirk Cousins hit Adam Thielen on a five-yard touchdown in the final minute before halftime to cut the deficit to 10-7.

Minnesota tied the game at 10-10 in the third quarter on a Dan Bailey field goal, but the Patriots struck for two touchdowns to pull away for the victory and cover. Cousins finished with 201 passing yards in spite of 32 completions, while getting intercepted twice. The Patriots picked up 27 first downs compared to 16 by the Vikings, as Minnesota has lost its past two road games and failed to cover each time as an underdog.

The Seahawks (7-5 SU, 7-3-2 ATS) have come back to life in the NFC Wild Card race by pulling out three consecutive victories. The latest triumph came in a 43-16 rout of the 49ers last Sunday as 10-point favorites to move above .500 at home with a 3-2 mark. Russell Wilson completed only 11 passes, but four of those went for touchdowns, including two scoring strikes to Jaron Brown.

Seattle’s rushing attack continued to punish the opposition by gaining 168 yards, while Bobby Wagner finished off the blowout with a 98-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Although Seattle allowed 49ers’ quarterback Nick Mullens to throw for 414 yards and two touchdowns, the Seahawks allowed 17 points or less for the fifth time this season.

TOTAL RECALL

The Seahawks began the season cashing the UNDER in six of eight games. However, Seattle has turned up the offense by hitting the OVER in each of the past four contests. The offense has provided 27 points or more in each of the last four games, while eclipsing that total in seven of the past eight contests. Seattle has drilled the OVER in three of the previous four games at CenturyLink Field, while allowing 24 points or more three times in this span.

The Vikings hit the OVER in four of their first seven contests, but have finished UNDER the total in four of the last five games. The Minnesota offense has been inconsistent during this stretch by failing to score 21 points or more in consecutive games, while allowing 24 points or more in losses to New England, Chicago, and New Orleans, all division leaders.

ROAD WOES

Last season, Minnesota won six of eight games away from U.S. Bank Stadium, but has stumbled to a 2-3-1 road mark this season. The only victory for the Vikings in the road underdog role came at Philadelphia in a Week 5 triumph, 23-21 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs. Minnesota has compiled a 2-2 ATS record when receiving points on the highway, while going 4-6 ATS in this role since 2016.

SERIES HISTORY

The Seahawks and Vikings haven’t hooked up since facing each other twice in 2015. Seattle destroyed Minnesota, 38-7 in Week 13 of that season, while the Seahawks edged the Vikings, 10-9 in the Wild Card round. The playoff win for Seattle came in the bitter cold as Vikings’ kicker Blair Walsh missed a chip-shot field goal that would have given Minnesota the victory. In the two losses, the Vikings reached the end zone only once, which came on a 101-yard kickoff return in the December defeat when Minnesota trailed, 35-0.

Seattle has captured each of the past four matchups in the series, including a pair of wins at CenturyLink Field by double-digits in 2012 and 2013. Minnesota’s last win over Seattle came in 2009, back when Brett Favre was still the quarterback of the Vikings in a 35-9 blowout at the Metrodome.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Vikings are making their first appearance on Monday night football this season, as Minnesota won in each of their Monday matchups in 2017. Last season, the Vikings defeated the Saints in the season opener at home, while edging the Bears at Soldier Field, 20-17 as 3 ½-point favorites. Minnesota is listed as an underdog on Monday night for the first time since 2013, when the Vikings fell to the Giants, 23-7 as four-point ‘dogs.

Seattle last appeared under the Monday night lights in Week 2 at Chicago in a 24-17 setback as 4 ½-point underdogs. Since Wilson was drafted by the Seahawks in 2012, Seattle has won six of eight times in Monday action, but the two losses have come in each of the past two seasons, including a home defeat to Atlanta in 2017.

TREND WATCH

VegasInsider.com trends expert Vince Akins checks in with a pair of trends to keep an eye on for Monday’s contest, both involving Minnesota. “The Vikings are 10-0-1 ATS (7.91 ppg) since Dec 21, 2006 as a dog coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards,” Akins notes, which includes an underdog victory at Philadelphia in Week 5.

From a totals perspective, Akins provides an UNDER situation for Minnesota, “The Vikings are 0-12 OU (-9.00 ppg) since Oct 12, 2014 when they are coming off a road game where they were not more than TD-dogs and gained less than 310 total yards.” This situation occurred back in Week 12 against Green Bay, as the Vikings won, 24-17 and stayed UNDER the total of 48 ½.

GAME PROPS - According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions - Kirk Cousins
OVER 27 ½ (-110)
UNDER 27 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes - Kirk Cousins
OVER 1 ½ (-150)
UNDER 1 ½ (+130)

Total Receiving Yards - Adam Thielen
OVER 94 ½ (-110)
UNDER 94 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards - Russell Wilson
OVER 238 ½ (-110)
UNDER 238 ½ (-110)

Will Chris Carson score a touchdown?
YES (+140)
UNDER (-160)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Seahawks opened up as 3 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, while the total sat at 45 last Monday. Nearly seven days later and not much movement on the number as Seattle is laying three at most spots with the juice at -115 or -120. The total has taken a split uptick to 45 ½ as the Vikings are 3-0 to the OVER on road totals of 45 ½ or less this season.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.

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