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Win Total and SOS Analysis

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
2 minute read
By conventional measure, weighing an NFL team's strength of schedule is simple and straightforward.

The common approach is to collectively add-up each opponent's win-loss record from the previous season to help determine each opponent's potential win probability for the coming campaign.

Playbook Method: NFL Strength Of Schedule vis-a-vis Season Win Totals

Another variable is to assess each opponent's season win totals for the upcoming season and tally the accumulative amount of wins.

It's my contention this represents a truer methodology. After all, which is more relevant: knowing how an opponent fared in last year's battles, or the expected degree of difficulty awaiting them this year?

SuperBook Season Win Totals

Let's take a look at the opening 2019 NFL season win totals posted by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas on April 30.

Teams are ranked from top-to-bottom based on each team's foes most projected season win totals to the fewest season win totals.

Team Team Win Total Foes' Win Total Vs. Division Vs. Non-Division
Houston Texans 8.5 137 51 86
Denver Broncos 7 135 52 83
Oakland Raiders 6 135 54 81
Atlanta Falcons 8.5 134.5 50 84.5
Chicago Bears 9 134 49 85
Tennessee Titans 8 134 52 82
Arizona Cardinals 5 132.5 54 78.5
Carolina Panthers 8 132.5 51 181.5
Miami Dolphins 5 132.5 52 80.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 132.5 54 78.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 8 132 52 80
Kansas City Chiefs 10.5 132 45 87
Seattle Seahawks 8.5 131.5 47 84.5
Minnesota VIkings 9 130 49 81
New Orleans Saints 10.5 130 46 84
Detroit Lions 6.5 129.5 56 73.5
Indianapolis Colts 9.5 129.5 49 80.5
San Francisco 49ers 8 129.5 48 81.5
Baltimore Ravens 8.5 129 48 80.5
Cincinnati Bengals 6 129 53 76
Green Bay Packers 9 129 49 80
Washington Redskins 6.5 129 49 80
Dallas Cowboys 9 128.5 44 84.5
Los Angeles Chargers 9.5 128.5 47 81.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 9 128.5 47 81
Los Angeles Rams 10.5 127 43 84
Buffalo Bills 6.5 125 47 78.5
New York Giants 6 125 50 75
Cleveland Browns 9 124 47 77
Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 123.5 43 80.5
New York Jets 7.5 122.5 45 77.5
New England Patriots 11 120.5 38 82.5

As you can see by this method, Arizona will take on the most difficult schedule, followed by Tampa bay and the New York Giants. On the flip side, Houston and New England has the cushiest schedule in 2019, with the New York Jets and the Philadelphia Eagles also beneficiaries of a soft slate.

In addition Houston also faces the toughest non-division schedule with Detroit going up against the easiest non-division foes. Finally, again it’s New England facing the weakest division slate, and Detroit drawing the toughest division pairings.

Also note that many of the opening season-win totals carried extra "juice" (i.e. Buffalo 6.5 “over” -130, Houston 8.5 “under” -140). For the purpose of this study the extra cost was removed from all season win totals.

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