Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:56 PM
Total Talk - Week 5
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We're on to Week 5 of the National Football League regular season, and we'll have our first game from London, as well as two more teams on a bye. The Chicago Bears-Oakland Raiders (40.5) will battle at the new Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium in a 1:00 p.m. ET start, which will be under the lights in jolly ol' England.
|2019 Total Results - Game & Halves|
The books made a killing in Week 4, and the under was a frequent play with nine of 15 games going under the total. That was a trend with the first-half and second-half lines, too, as offense was rather scarce in the fourth week of the season. Generally, that's good for the books as the public tends to bet more overs.
We saw five of the six division battles go the way of the 'under' in Week 4, including the primetime game on Monday between the two previously winless AFC North teams. In fact, outside of the Cleveland-Baltimore outlier, which saw the total cash by more than 17 points, the losing team in the other five division games had 10 or fewer points, and only one team in the six division battles scored more than 24 points.
|Divisional Game Results Week 4|
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 5 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.
New England at Washington: 47 ½ to 42
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: 46 to 43 ½
Indianapolis at Kansas City: 54 to 56
Jacksonville at Carolina: 42 to 40
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 45
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: 42 ½ to 44
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 5 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: Under 94%
Chicago vs. Oakland (London): Under 93%
N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia: Under 92%
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Over 91%
Atlanta at Houston: Over 87%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (77 percent) in the Buffalo-Tennessee matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in New England-Washington (77 percent) battle on Sunday.
Handicapping Week 5
|Week 4 Total Results|
Week 5 is started with another high-scoring Thursday night battle, and a rarity for a divisional matchup, as the L.A. Rams-Seattle matchup went well 'over' (48.5) with 59 total points. Through 14 primetime battles the 'under' is now 10-4, but the 'over' has connected in each of the past two on Thursday.
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: Since 2015 under head coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have posted 26.5 PPG in 15 games as a road favorite. Make a note that Minnesota scored 27, 37 and 29 points in this role last season with quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Buffalo at Tennessee: The Bills are the only team with a perfect 4-0 'under' record so far during the 2019 season, and the under has cashed in eight of their past nine games on the road, too.
Taking a look at the divisional battles for Week 5:
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The Steelers offense showed some signs of life against the Bengals on Monday Night Football, posting 27 points for their highest point total of the season. The 'under' has cashed in three of four games for the Steelers, including 2-0 in their two battles against AFC opponents. The defensive showing was more a lack of cohesiveness and effective play by the Bengals, who are decimated on the offensive line, rather than some sudden greatness of the Steelers. They allowed 24 or more points in each of the first three games, an average of 28.3 PPG.
The Ravens had a 40-burger hung on them by the Browns last week at home. After giving up just 27 points in the first two weeks, the Ravens defense was believed to be back. However, they faced the awful Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals, two teams with a combined record of 0-7-1 SU. In the past two games against the Chiefs and Steelers, the Baltimore defense has been pounded for a total of 73 points, or 36.5 PPG. The offense has been on fire regardless of opponent, scoring 23 or more points in each of their four games, or an average of 33.8 PPG. As such, the 'over' has cashed in three of four contests.
The Ravens have hit the under in each of the past three as road favorites in Pittsburgh dating back to 2000, too.
Other important divisional games with important trends to note:
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Buccaneers rolled up an impressive 55 points in Sunday's road contest against the Rams, and they have registered 86 total points over the past two outings while coughing up a total of 72 points in the past two contests. In fact, the Bucs have allowed 31 or more points in three of their four contests overall. In their past 19 games on the road, the over has connected in 14 outings for Tampa Bay.
The Saints lost QB Drew Brees (thumb) during the Week 2 game in L.A. It was going to be disastrous, and a drop off in production with backupTeddy Bridgewater under center, right? Well, the Saints are 2-0 SU with 22.5 PPG, covering the spread in each while hitting the over once. It was a low-scoring 12-10 win over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and the Saints offense has scored 12 or fewer points in two of the past three. The jury is still out on what kind of offense the Saints are going to be until Brees is able to return. As far as trends, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 games against NFC opponents for the Saints, while going 9-4 in the past 13 overall contests.
Denver at L.A. Chargers: The third and final divisional matchup takes place in Southern California, as the Broncos hope the fifth time is a charm. Denver's offense has been moribund or most of the season, posting 16 or fewer points in the first three outings. However, they ended up dropping a season-high 24 points in last week's narrow two-point setback against the Jaguars. The 'over' has hit in each of the past two after a pair of under results to start the season. Denver's defense has allowed 24 or more points in three of four outings, but no more than 27 in any one outing.
The over hit in Week 1 for the Chargers, a game which went to overtime against the Colts. However, L.A. is on a three-game 'under' run with 20.0 PPG on offense and 16.7 PPG allowed on defense. The under has cashed in each of the past six meetings in California, while going 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall between these two AFC West foes. The under is 9-2 in the past 11 divisional games overall for the Bolts, too.
Oakland vs. Chicago (1:00 p.m. ET): The Raiders and Bears square off in the first of five international series games this season, and the first of four from London, England. Since the league began this venture in 2007, we've had 24 games played in the United Kingdom and the 'under' holds a slight 13-11 edge in those games but the low side did go 3-0 in 2018. The Bears played overseas in 2011 and captured a 24-18 over Tampa Bay while the Raiders are 0-2 in London, losing both games by double digits and that includes as 27-3 loss last season to Seattle.
There are three games listed with double-digit spreads for Week 5, with one road team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 42 to 56 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.
New England at Washington (1:00 p.m. ET): The Patriots offense has rolled up 30 or more points in three of their four outings, but the 'over' has hit just once thanks to an amazing defensive effort by New England overall. The Patriots defense has allowed a total 13 points this season. Yes, they have yielded 27 total points on the season, but the 14 points scored by the Jets actually were by their defense, not by the offense. So the Patriots D has been on lockdown.
Don't look for New England's defense to give up much this week in D.C., either. QB Colt McCoy will take the reins of the offense this week looking to get the Redskins their first win despite being 15-point underdogs in their home building. The Redskins have averaged 16.5 PPG on offense, seeing their production just in every game from 27 to 21 to 15 to just 3 last week. The defense has given up 24 or more points in all four contests, and 31 or more in three of the outings. However, even a 34-7 result this week would hit an 'under'. It's hard to see the 'Skins scoring into double-digits against a lockdown Pats D, especially with a rusty McCoy at the helm.
Make a note that the 'under' has connected in each of the past nine games when New England is a double-digit road favorite, which includes its Week 2 result when they won at Miami by a 43-0 count.
N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. ET): The Jets have once against ruled out QB Sam Darnold (mononucleosis) for another game, so QB Luke Falk will make a second straight start. The Jets offense has been terrible, posting 11.0 PPG in three outings, and technically, just 6.3 PPG by the offense, as they have 14 points from their defense, as mentioned above. The unknown heading into this one is how well Falk will perform after having two weeks to prepare for the Eagles after a bye in Week 4. While the offense has been rather inconsistent so far, the defense has been consistent -- consistently worse, that is. They allowed 17 in the opener, 23 in Week 2 and 30 in Week 3.
Indianapolis at Kansas City (8:20 p.m. ET): Many felt that the Colts would see a drop-off in offensive production after QB Andrew Luck retired rather suddenly during the preseason. However, QB Jacoby Brissett has led the team to an impressive 23.5 PPG across the first four games, while the defense has coughed up 25.5 PPG so far. That's a great recipe for overs, going 3-1 so far. That's unlikely to change this week against the high-flying Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes. To make matters worse for the Colts, Mahomes didn't account for one touchdown in Detroit last week, and the Chiefs still won. He'll be angry and looking to get back on track under the lights. The over still cashed for the Chiefs in their 34-30 win last week, and they have 28 or more points in all four outings, hitting the over three times. They allowed 26 or more points in those three games when the over hit, too. Those tracking Sunday Night Football, we haven't seen an over ticket yet this season...so we could be due!
Under the Lights
Cleveland at San Francisco (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week features the Browns, who finally discovered their offense in Baltimore last week, against a 49ers team coming off a 15-day absence due to their bye in Week 4 and an extra day to prepare for MNF.
The Browns are averaging 22.3 PPG while yielding 22.8 PPG through four games, although defensively that's a bit skewed after coughing up 43 in the Week 1 loss to the Titans. The 'over/under' has split 2-2, but the under is 2-0 in the two primetime showings for Cleveland.
The 49ers have hit for 24 or more points in each of their three outings, averaging 32.0 PPG. Defensively, they have yielded 20 or fewer points in each of their three games, although the combined record of their three opponents is 3-9 SU, so it remains to be seen whether San Francisco's defense is that much improved or just a product of their poor opponents to date.
I was finally in the black last week, going for a return of (+$200). The low-scoring Cowboys-Saints battle doused what was a 2-0 teaser leading into the SNF game, but that's how it goes sometimes. At least it wasn't even close. Anyway, that's (-$460) for the season, too. We'll look to keep it going in Week 5. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Tampa Bay-New Orleans 46
Best Under: Atlanta-Houston 50
Best First-Half Under: New England-Washington 21 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Under 49 New England at Washington
Under 54 Green Bay at Dallas
Over 31 ½ Buffalo at Tennessee
CD's Best Bets
Chris David posted a 2-1 record in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 7-5 (58%) on the season.
For this week's Podcast, he offers up his opinion on every game with Kevin Rogers plus he provides his top selections on the below games:
N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia
Jacksonville at Carolina
Buffalo at Tennessee
Listen Here as he provides his thoughts and selections starting at 36:58 of Episode 9.
Joe Williams can be reached on Twitter at @JoeWilliamsVI