Sunday Blitz – Week 9

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers has won 15 of his last 18 NFL guarantee plays. He is locked and loaded with a late Sunday afternoon guarantee. Click to win!

GAMES TO WATCH

Titans at Panthers (-3 ½, 42) – 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) is right back in the AFC South race after picking up consecutive home wins over Los Angeles and Tampa Bay. Ryan Tannehill has given the offense a spark at quarterback the last two weeks as the Titans scored 23 and 27 points following a two-week stretch of seven combined points. Granted, both games came down to the end but Tennessee is coming off consecutive wins for the first time this season, while the Titans already own road underdog victories at Cleveland and Atlanta.

The Panthers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) limp home after getting blasted by the undefeated 49ers last Sunday, 51-13 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Carolina fell into a 27-3 halftime hole as the Panthers saw their four-game winning streak snapped, while quarterback Kyle Allen was intercepted three times. The Panthers had scored 34 points or more in three of their previous four wins, as Carolina returns to Bank of America Stadium for its second home game in the last seven weeks.

Carolina has won six consecutive home games against AFC foes since 2016, while Tennessee is riding a three-game winning streak against NFC squads on the road since last season. The Panthers routed the Titans in Nashville in their previous matchup in 2015 as 3 ½-point favorites, 27-10, as the starting quarterbacks in that game were Cam Newton and Marcus Mariota.

Best Bet: Titans 27, Panthers 24

Vikings (-4, 47) at Chiefs – 1:00 PM EST

The race atop the NFC North continues to be a good one between Green Bay and Minnesota, who are separated by one game heading into Week 9. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) are coming off their fourth straight victory after holding off the feisty Redskins, 19-9 in a Week 8 Thursday night battle as Minnesota failed to cover as 16 ½-point home favorites. Kirk Cousins continues to play well by throwing 10 touchdowns passes in the last four contests, while completing 23-of-26 passes against his former team for 285 yards last week.

The Chiefs (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) will likely be without last season’s MVP Patrick Mahomes for a second straight game after missing last Sunday night’s 31-24 loss to the Packers recovering from a dislocated kneecap. Kansas City has dropped three consecutive home games and last lost three games in a season at Arrowhead Stadium back in 2013. Matt Moore will start at quarterback once again, but the running game has been non-existent by being held to 88 yards or fewer in the last four contests (1-3).

The Vikings lost their first two road games of the season at Green Bay and Chicago, while scoring a total of 22 points in those defeats. Minnesota has rebounded in the past two away victories against the Giants and Lions (granted lesser competition), but the Vikings posted 70 points in those wins. Kansas City’s offense obviously takes a hit without Mahomes, but the Chiefs scored 20 points without the former Texas Tech star in the final three quarters at Denver before putting up 24 against Green Bay.

Best Bet: Vikings 24, Chiefs 20

Buccaneers at Seahawks (-4 ½, 53) – 4:05 PM EST

Tampa Bay (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) shocked many people in its Week 4 blowout of the NFC Champion Rams, 55-40 as nine-point road underdogs to improve to 2-2. The Buccaneers haven’t won since by dropping three consecutive games, while allowing 31, 37, and 27 points in this stretch. The most recent defeat came at Tennessee last Sunday as two-point underdogs in a 27-23 setback to drop to 2-2 on the highway. Jameis Winston has been intercepted seven times in the last two games, as the Buccaneers are riding a five-game streak to the OVER.

The Seahawks (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) built a 24-0 halftime lead at Atlanta last Sunday before holding off the Falcons, 27-20. Due to the questionable status of Falcons’ quarterback Matt Ryan all week, there wasn’t a line on the game until Ryan was ruled out and Seattle closed as a 7 ½-point favorite. Following that non-cover, the Seahawks fell to 1-5 ATS this season when laying points, which includes an 0-4 ATS mark at CenturyLink Field. Seattle will look to sure up its defense at home as the Seahawks have yielded 33, 29, and 30 points in their last three contests in the Pacific Northwest.

The Bucs have not covered in a loss this season (0-5 ATS), but Tampa Bay owns a 5-1 ATS mark since last season as a road underdog of four points or more. This total is the highest that Seattle has seen this season, as the Seahawks cashed the OVER in all three opportunities on totals of 50 and higher in 2018. Tampa Bay defeated Seattle in the previous matchup at Raymond James Stadium in 2016 as five-point underdogs, 14-5.

Best Bet: Seahawks 30, Buccaneers 20

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (3-2 last week, 21-19 this season)

Jaguars +1
Bears +4 ½
Steelers +1
Raiders -2 ½
Broncos +3

Chris David (2-3 last week, 14-26 this season)

Dolphins +3
Broncos +3
Chargers +3 ½
Ravens +3
Cowboys -7

SURVIVOR PICKS

Kevin Rogers (3-1)

Eliminated – Rams lost to Buccaneers in Week 4

Chris David (9-0)

Used – Seattle, New England, Dallas, L.A. Chargers, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Buffalo, Pittsburgh

Week 9 Selection - San Francisco

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 51 – Lions at Raiders

Oakland is playing at the Coliseum for the first time since Week 2 as the Raiders spent the last five games on the road. In the middle of this stretch, the Silver and Black traveled to London to face the Bears as Oakland finished UNDER the total in its two true home games to start the season. Although that was a long time ago, the Raiders have hit the OVER in four of the last five contests, but are 2-0 to the UNDER in totals of 50 or higher. The Lions’ offense has been hit or miss at time this season, but Detroit scored 30 points or more in three of their last four games. In their highest road total at Green Bay, the Lions finished UNDER the total of 47.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bears head to Philadelphia in a playoff rematch with the Eagles as Chicago tries to end a two-game skid. Teams that lose consecutive home games and hit the road are worth a strong look since bettors are normally down of them, as that is the case for Chicago. The Eagles blew out the Bills last Sunday, but Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS this season at Lincoln Financial Field, while failing to cash in seven of their past 10 home contests.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Westgate Superbook released the Broncos as a one-point home favorite against the Browns on October 22, five days before the Week 8 card took place. After the news came down that Broncos’ quarterback Joe Flacco will be sidelined and former Arkansas standout Brandon Allen will make his first NFL start, this line flipped significantly. Cleveland is listed as a 4 ½-point favorite even though the Browns own a 2-5 record and have dropped three consecutive games. Denver has lost three games this season by two points each, all on field goals in the final minute.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Dolphins are seeking their first win of the season. You probably knew that, but Miami has covered in three consecutive games, as the ‘Fins are an underdog once again when the rival Jets invade Hard Rock Stadium. In last season’s two matchups with the Dolphins, Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold was intercepted six times as New York scored 18 points and was swept by Miami. Of course the Dolphins aren’t the same team as last season, but the Jets enter Sunday’s action with a 1-9 record in their past 10 road contests.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.

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NFL APR 24, 2024