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Nov 16, 2019

Sunday Blitz - Week 11

Bet and Collect Podcast



Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers has won 20 of his last 24 NFL guarantee plays. He is locked and loaded with a Sunday afternoon guarantee. Click to win!

GAMES TO WATCH

Texans at Ravens (-4 ½, 51 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

A pair of first place AFC squads hook up in Baltimore as the Texans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) return from their bye week. Prior to its bye, Houston crushed Jacksonville in London, 26-3 to pull off the season sweep of the Jaguars, while holding its first opponent to single-digits in points this season. The Texans are seeking their first three-game winning streak of the season, while already knocking off the Chiefs and Chargers as a road underdog.

The Ravens (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) are fresh off their fifth consecutive victory after routing the winless Bengals, 49-13 as 10 ½-point road favorites. Quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for three touchdowns and ran for another one on an electrifying 47-yard scamper to give Baltimore its third straight cover following a 1-5 ATS start. The Ravens have failed to cover in three opportunities as a home favorite this season, while last cashing in this role in Week 12 last season against the Raiders.

These teams hooked up in Baltimore two seasons ago as the Ravens held off the Texans, 23-16 as 7 ½-point favorites. Obviously Jackson wasn’t on the roster, as Joe Flacco started for Baltimore opposite not Deshaun Watson, but Tom Savage got the start for the Texans. Houston has played five games at M&T Bank Stadium since its expansion year in 2002 and have never beaten Baltimore once on the road.

Best Bet: Ravens 27, Texans 24

Jaguars at Colts (-2 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST

Nick Foles inked a four-year, $88 million deal with Jacksonville in the offseason, but the former Super Bowl MVP hasn’t played a full game yet for the Jaguars (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS). Foles sustained a broken collarbone in the first half of the season opening loss at Kansas City as rookie Gardner Minshew took over at quarterback. Minshew had some highlights as Jacksonville went 4-4 in games started by the former Washington State standout, but Foles is back in the lineup for Sunday. The Jags have not defeated a team with a winning record, but Jacksonville has cashed in three of four road games this season.

The Colts (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) welcome back their starting quarterback after Brian Hoyer was in for the injured Jacoby Brissett in last Sunday’s shocking 16-12 defeat to the Dolphins as 11-point home favorites. Brissett was dealing with a sprained knee suffered in the loss at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but he is ready to return for a Colts’ team who are 0-3 ATS the last three games. The Colts are coming off an ‘under’ against Miami, as Indianapolis has not hit two consecutive ‘unders’ this season.

Jacksonville has covered seven of the past eight meetings with Indianapolis, as the two matchups in 2018 were decided by a total of nine points. The Colts are 4-1 in the previous five affairs with the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium, including picking up a 29-26 triumph last season.

Best Bet: Jaguars 20, Colts 17

Patriots (-4 ½, 44 ½) at Eagles – 4:25 PM EST

These teams hook up for the first time since the epic Super Bowl LII two seasons ago won by the Eagles, 41-33 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Philadelphia (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) enters this rematch on a two-game winning streak after defeating Buffalo and Chicago in the past two contests, while fresh off the bye week. The Eagles have yet to win three consecutive games this season, as they enter Sunday’s action tied for the top spot in the NFC East with the Cowboys. Philadelphia allowed 37 points in a blowout loss at Dallas in Week 7, but the Eagles have yielded a combined 37 points in the past two games.

The Patriots (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) are also off the bye week, but New England dropped its first game of the season two weeks ago in a 37-20 blowout loss at Baltimore as three-point favorites. It seems easy to blindly back the Patriots off a defeat, but New England lost back-to-back games twice last season, and in both situations, they fell on the road each time. Tom Brady lit up the Eagles in that Super Bowl setback for 505 yards and three touchdown passes, as the Patriots have won 10 of the past 12 regular season affairs with NFC foes.

New England owns a perfect 2-0 record at Lincoln Financial Field since the stadium opened in 2003, but the Patriots have lost the two meetings with the Eagles. In the most recent regular season matchup in Foxboro in 2015, Philadelphia surprised New England as nine-point underdogs, 35-28.

Best Bet: Patriots 27, Eagles 20

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (4-1 last week, 28-22 this season)

Lions +6 ½
Jaguars +2 ½
49ers -11
Bengals +10 ½
Rams -6 ½

Chris David (5-0 last week, 24-26 this season)

Falcons +5 ½
Ravens -4
Bills -6
Jets +1
Chiefs -3 ½

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 44 – Cardinals at 49ers

San Francisco’s defense allowed 77 points in its first seven games, but the 49ers have given up 52 points in the past two weeks. The Niners yielded 25 points against the Cardinals two weeks ago in a 28-25 victory in Arizona, but the final touchdown occurred on an 88-yard strike by Kyler Murray with five minutes remaining. Arizona’s offense hasn’t fared well on the road against teams with winning records by scoring 17 at Baltimore and 9 at New Orleans, while San Francisco.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

We’ll stick with that San Francisco/Arizona matchup as the 49ers opened as 13 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook last Monday. The Niners have slipped to a 10-point favorite, which also coincides coming off their first loss of the season to Seattle in overtime. The Cardinals have been a solid team to back recently by covering in five of the last six games, while posting a 4-1 ATS mark away from Glendale this season. San Francisco has not covered in two opportunities as a double-digit favorite this season, which includes that three-point win at Arizona as 10 ½-point chalk in Week 9.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bengals are the only team in the NFL not to win a game this season as they take their 0-9 record to the Black Hole in Oakland. Cincinnati is off a 49-13 home blowout loss to Baltimore last week, while Oakland is fresh off a pair of close home wins over Detroit and Los Angeles. Now, the Raiders are laying points for only the second time this season, as four of their past five covers have come in the underdog role. The Bengals’ offense has struggled in 2019, but Cincinnati has cashed in road games as ‘dogs of nine points or more at Seattle and Baltimore.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Teams returning from the bye after a London game own an 0-6 SU/ATS record this season. The two teams that are in this situation in Week 11 are the Texans and Jaguars. Both are road underdogs as Houston heads to Baltimore, while Jacksonville travels to Indianapolis. Four of the six losing teams fell by double-digits, but Houston has not lost a game by more than a touchdown in 2019.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at [email protected]

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.


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