Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:55 PM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 13
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Ask any bookmaker in Nevada what two games Joe Public likes the most in Sunday’s NFL Week 13 action and they’ll all tell you the same thing -- ”they like the Patriots and Packers.”
It’s usually not that stacked with every book having the exact same type of public play, but it’s unified with books up north at Atlantis Reno, strip joints like Caesars Palace, Wynn, and CG Technology as well as local neighborhood outlets like Station Casinos.
That’s a heavily weighted two-team parlay at 13-to-5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260) that is gonna hurt every book if it cashes and those two games are also the root of several other legs in other larger parlay schemes, as well as being the end of leftovers from the three Thanksgiving games featuring the popular Saints (-7) who won at Atlanta, 26-18.
The Packers (8-3) are six-point road favorites against the Giants (2-9), who have lost seven straight games. The Packers, who are tied atop the NFC North with the Vikings, have lost two of their last three games -- both coming on the road. The Giants are just 5-15-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 21 home games and it’s not hard to understand why the public is all over the Packers.
Should the Packers cover, it sets up for a powder keg of risk in the Sunday Night Footbal matchup with the Patriots (10-1) as three-point road favorites against the Texans (7-4). The majority of books in Las Vegas have the Patriots -3 (-120) while Circa has them -3.5 (EVEN).
There’s a lot to like about the Patriots such as going 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and the defense allowing only 10 points per game and 256 yards per game. It’s in that defense coupled with the appearance of a struggling offense that has helped the 'under' go 5-1 in their six road games. The lone 'over' took place in their only road loss, a 37-20 blowout setback to the Ravens. The Texans have stayed under in eight of their last nine home games, but still, larger money pushed the total from 44.5 to 46 for this one.
Wynn sportsbook director Doug Castaneda said he got sharp money on the opposite sides taking the Giants and Texans and Marc Nelson at the Atlantis Reno said he took sharp action on the Texans as well.
It’s an extreme sharp-public divide.
Sharp money is also loving the Cardinals (3-7-1) at home against the Rams (6-5), who are coming off an embarrassing 45-6 loss at home to the Ravens last Monday. The Rams were bet down from -4 across the most key number of 3 down to -2.5. They’ve won and covered the last four meetings against the Cardinals, plus Arizona enters this game with a four-game losing streak (2-1-0 ATS).
The Cards may have only two wins, but they’re a hard team for opponents to game plan for because they run so many different offensive sets. And then they have a mobile quarterback in Kyler Murray who can create his own plays on the fly. He’s no longer a rookie and it appears that the youngster and rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury are on the same page running the offense. Despite two wins, they’re the best cover team in the NFL at 8-3 ATS.
Jeff Davis at Caesars Palace says they’ve taken sharp action on the Bengals (+3 vs. Jets) and 49ers (+5.5 at Baltimore) and Tony DiTommaso at CG books has sharp play on the 49ers taking +6 and Titans +2.5 (at Indianapolis).
The 49ers (10-1) and Ravens (9-2) game looks like a preview to this year's Super Bowl 54, of which Baltimore are now the 2/1 betting favorite at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to win the finale next February. San Francisco isn't far behind at 7/1 odds. The tow clubs are the highest-scoring teams in the NFL and the matchup between the Ravens top-rated running game against the 49ers defensive linemen should be fun to watch.
The Ravens have serious momentum, winners in seven straight and more importantly five straight covers for bettors. That run includes an impressive 37-20 home win against the Patriots top-rated defense. They’ve scored 41-points or more in their last three and QB Lamar Jackson looks like he’s just getting warmed up. But the 49ers have scored 36-points or more in their last two, which includes a 37-8 win against the Packers last week on SNF.
The Broncos (3-8) are expected to start rookie QB Drew Lock this week at home against the Chargers (4-7) and sharps are betting against him laying the -2.5. Lock was hurt in the preseason, but I remember the progress reports on him weren’t great from his coaches during training camp. The Broncos won at the Chargers, 20-13, in Week 5.
The third most popular public play next to the Patriots and Packers is the Seahawks (-3 EV vs. Vikings) on Monday night, which could once again present more serious rollover risk for books.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.