Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:55 PM
Total Talk - Week 13
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It's Week 13 of the National Football League regular-season schedule, as we've hit the holidays and are heading for the home stretch. The 'under' got off to a 2-1 start this week with our three Thanksgiving Day features, as the lowest total on the board went 'over' while the primetime battle between the New Orleans Saints-Atlanta Falcons saw the 'under' cash tickets yet again in a game under the lights..
|2019 Total Results - Game & Halves|
The totals went 9-5 in favor of the 'under' last week, or in other words, in favor of the books. The public generally stays away from the risky proposition which is the 'under' and tends to gravitate toward the cushy, safe and relaxed feeling of an 'over.' As I always say, once it is over, it's over, but the under you have to sweat out until there are all zeroes on the clock. Under betting isn't for the faint of heart.
The 'under' theme was common in both the first-half (9-5) and second-half (8-5-1) in Week 12 as well. On the season, the low side has trended ahead in both the first-half (81-94-1) and second-half (77-94-5).
In the five divisional battles in Week 12, the slight edge went to the 'over' - including NFC South battle between the New Orleans Saints-Carolina Panthers in Charlotte which coasted well 'over' the number. The under is now 32-27 (54.2%) in divisional games this season, which includes this past Thursday's results in Week 13 between the Bears and Lions, as well as the Saints and Falcons.
|Divisional Game Results Week 12|
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 13 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.
Oakland at Kansas City: 54 ½ to 51
Green Bay at N.Y. Giants: 47 to 45
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 40 ½ to 39
New England at Houston: 44 ½ to 46
Philadelphia at Miami: 46 ½ to 45
Tennessee at Indianapolis: 42 to 43 ½
Washington at Carolina: 41 to 39 ½
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 13 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Oakland at Kansas City: Under 93%
N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati: Over 87%
Philadelphia at Miami: Under 84%
New England at Houston: Over 76%
L.A. Chargers at Denver: Under 73%
Tennessee at Indianapolis: Over 73%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (69 percent) in the Washington at Carolina matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Cleveland at Pittsburgh (61 percent) contest.
Handicapping Week 13
|Week 12 Total Results|
Week 13 Action
Green Bay at N.Y. Giants : The public has been jumping all over the Packers, driving the line up significantly over the Giants. But what about the total? Well, the over is 20-9 in Green Bay's past 29 games on the road. The good news is that this is not in the state of California, a place which has been their kryptonite. The Packers are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread in the Golden State, and the under also 2-0 in their two roadies in Cali, and the 'over' is 2-1 in the other three road games. The over is also 2-0 in Green Bay's previous two this season against NFC East foes. For the G-Men, this will do it against the NFC Central. The 'under is 2-1 in their previous three, hitting the under in their only game at Met Life Stadium vs. Central. The under is 4-1 for the Giants at home this season, as they have scored 14, 24, 10, 21 and 18.
San Francisco at Baltimore: The 49ers head east to battle quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in a highly-anticipated matchup of defense vs. offense. It is the fourth and final foray into the Eastern Time Zone for the 49ers this season, and they're 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS with the 'under' going 2-1. As far as Baltimore is concerned, it's all over all the time. The over is 3-1 in the past four games overall, but the under is 3-2 in their five games at M&T Bank Stadium this season. While everyone is talking about the quarterback and offense, which has totals of 30, 37, 49, 41 and 45 in the past five weeks, look what the defense has done. They've allowed 26 total points - or 8.7 PPG - across the past three outings.
Tennessee at Indianapolis: Ever since making the change from QB Marcus Mariota to QB Ryan Tannehill, the Titans offense has been on fire. They scored 17, 7, 24, 7 and 0 in Mariota's final five starts, averaging 11 PPG of offense in his final five outings. In the five games since Tannehill has taken the reins of the offense, the offense has posted 23, 27, 20, 35 and 42. That's the 'over' hitting in five straight with Tannehill, and the offense appears to be getting better each week. The good news for total bettors, in particular those who love the 'over', the defense has yielded 20 or more points in each of the past five, too. This is a rematch of the Week 2 game in Nashville which saw the Colts win 19-17, an 'under' result. Again, Mariota was at the helm in that one, so not much to glean here. The under is 11-3 in the past 14 battles in Indianapolis, too, but again, most of those games featured Mariota or QB Andrew Luck, neither of whom will be starting Sunday. Looking to more recent trends, the over is 5-0 in Tennesse's past five, the over is 4-1 in their past five against winning teams and the over is 5-2 in Indy's past seven at home.
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville: The Jags were tuned up in Nashville by the aforementioned Titans, falling 42-20 as the 'over' hit. The Jags defense has gone south over the past three outings, all divisional games, yielding 26, 33 and 42. The Bucs have an offense capable of moving the ball early and often, while also yielding plenty of points along the way. In fact, the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 in the past nine outings, with the last 'under' for the Bucs in Week 2 in Carolina. The Bucs defense has allowed 22 or more points in nine straight games, so perhaps QB Nick Foles and the Jacksonvile offense finally gets untracked in this one.
N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati: The QB Ryan Finley experiment is over, as head coach Zac Taylor announced the Bengals are going back to veteran QB Andy Dalton as their starter for this one. The Bengals averaged just 7.7 PPG in three games under Finley, while posting 18 PPG in eight starts under Dalton, at least looking like a semi-functional offense at times. The under is 5-2-1 in Dalton's eight starts, although the over is 2-0-1 in his three starts at home. The under was 2-1 in Finley's three on-the-job training spots. The Jets held the Raiders to three points last week, slapping the brakes on a 4-0 'over' run. In five games on the road this season, New York has posted a 4-1 over mark, and they have score exactly 34 points in each of their past three outings.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: It's a rematch of two weeks ago, as the Browns and Steelers square off at Heinz Field in a super-important game in the AFC wild-card picture. The Steelers can deal the Browns a disastrous blow with a win, while the Browns can grab a head-to-head advantage over the Steelers with a win. The last time these teams met, we all know about the Myles Garrett situation. However, the guy he tried to bludgeon with a helmet is carrying a clipboard this week. QB Mason Rudolph has been benched in favor of undrafted rookie free-agent QB Devlin Hodges. He led the Steelers to a win in place of an injured Rudolph on the road against the Chargers back on Oct. 13, a 24-17 win and 'under' result. He came off the bench and led a charge in Cincinnati, also a 16-10 win and 'under'.
L.A. Rams at Arizona: The Rams offense continued to flounder in their 45-6 loss on Monday night against Jackson and the Ravens, as L.A. is averaging just 11.7 PPG across the past three outings. The 'under' is 5-1 in the past six, too. This is the first of two meetings in the next five weeks between these two. The under has connected in five of the past seven meetings in this series, although none of those games included the dynamic rookie QB Kyler Murray, who continues to improve. The under is 5-1 in L.A.'s past six overall, and 7-2 in the past nine road games. The under is also 4-0 in Arizona's past four following a bye week, too.
L.A. Chargers at Denver: The Broncos have reportedly been doing everything to prepare rookie QB Drew Lock for his first NFL start, although, officially, the starting signal caller is undecided for head coach Vic Fangio as of Saturday morning. It appears the QB Brandon Allen experience might be over, however. He started for three games, helping the team register 15.7 PPG over the past three outings. The Broncos won the first meeting in L.A. by a 20-13 score, but that was QB Philip Rivers vs. Joe Flacco, not Rivers vs. Lock. It will be interesting to see what the rookie from Missouri can do, but total bettors might want to shy away from this one until we get a little more information on him.
There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 13, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 39 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.
Washington at Carolina (1:00 p.m. ET): The Redskins continue to tick off 'under' results fairly regularly, and it hasn't mattered who is under center. The team scored 19 points last week in a win, and believe it or not that was the highest total since Week 2 vs. Dallas. Their season high of 27 points came in the regular-season opener and it's been all downhill from there. Since Sept. 29 the Redskins have scored 3, 7, 17, 0, 9, 9, 17 and 19, or an average of 11.6 PPG. It's no surprise the 'under' is 7-1 during the span. As far as the Panthers are concerned, they're a rather erratic team. In nine starts with QB Kyle Allen under center, the 'over' is 6-3. However, the offense has mustered just 16.7 PPG across the past three outings. The Redskins have hit the under in each of their past four instances as a double-digit underdogs, however, and that knowledge by bettors is likely what's driving the line down.
Philadelphia at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET): The Dolphins are double-digit 'dogs at home for the third time this season. The under hit in each of the first two instances, and the under is 5-2 in the first seven time the Dolphins have been underdogs by 10 or more points. For Philly, they've lost their way on offense, mainly due to a bevy of injuries, while the defense has been locking it down. As such, the under is 3-0 across their past three outings. During that span the offense is averaging just 13.7 PPG while allowing 12.7 PPG.
Oakland at Kansas City (4:25 p.m. ET): The Raiders and Chiefs met in the Black Hole back in Week 2, with Kansas City posting a 28-10 and 'under' result. The under is 2-1 in Oakland's first three AFC West Division battles. As a road underdog the over is 3-1 for the Raiders, however, while the Chiefs have hit the over in four of their five games at Arrowhead, even when QB Patrick Mahomes was on the shelf. As a home favorite the 'over' is 2-1 for the Chiefs, and the offense is averaging 23.3 PPG with the defense yielding 26.0 PPG. The under is 20-7 in Oakland's past 27 inside the division, however, while going a perfect 4-0 in Kansas City's past four against AFC West foes. In this series the under is hitting to the tune of 17-5 in the past 22 at Arrowhead, and 21-8 in the past 29 meetings overall.
Under the Lights
New England at Houston (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Texans are back under the lights in a great measuring stick game against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The Texans have actually hit the 'under' in four straight, and they're scoring just 20.0 PPG during the span while allowing 21.3 PPG, 14.7 PPG if you take out a 41-point outburst by the Ravens in Week 11 which skewed things slightly. The under is actually 8-1 for Houston's past nine at NRG Stadium in Houston, and 20-7 in the past 27 against AFC foes. For the Patriots, they're a friend of the under bettor because of their sturdy defense, especially on the road. The under is 4-1 in the past five overall, 10-2 in the past 12 in December and 25-10 in the past 35 on the road.
Minnesota at Seattle (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The 'over' has cashed for Minnesota in each of the past three, with the offense posting 26 PPG and the defense yielding 24.3 PPG. In fact, the over is 5-1 across the past six overall for the Vikings. For the Seahawks, as a home favorite of less than a touchdown this season, the over is 3-1. However, the trends for both of these teams on Monday nights points to the under. The under is 6-1 in Minnesota's past seven appearances on MNF, while the under is 7-3 in the past 10 for Seattle on Monday.
I wasn't terribly thankful for the results on Thanksgiving, but at least I didn't take a loss. A result of (+25) was quite all right, especially pleasing was hitting the teaser. The chase continues into Week 13 for that first sweep. The deficit is back down to (-$465) for the season. We'll look to keep it bounce back in Week 13, hopefully getting back in black soon before it's all over. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Tennessee-Indianapolis 43
Best Under: New England-Houston 46 ½
Best First-Half Over: San Francisco-Baltimore 23
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Over 40 ½ Tampa Bay-Jacksonville
Under 58 Oakland-Kansas City
Under 57 Minnesota-Seattle
CD's Best Bets
Chris David got back on track with a 2-1 mark with his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 20-16 (55%) on the season. For this week's Podcast, CD is confident his top three total winners.
CD's Best Bets for this week are focused on the below three games:
Green Bay at N.Y. Giants
Philadelphia at Miami
Minnesota at Seattle
Listen Here as he provides his thoughts and selections starting at 41:55 of Episode 24.
Joe Williams can be reached on Twitter at @JoeWilliamsVI