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NFL

Sunday Blitz – Week 13

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
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Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers has won 20 of his last 29 NFL guarantee plays. He is locked and loaded with a Sunday afternoon guarantee. Click to win!

GAMES TO WATCH

49ers at Ravens (-5 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

In a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII won by Baltimore, 34-31 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, these two squads have combined for an impressive 19-3 record through 11 games each. The Ravens (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) dominated the defending NFC champion Rams last Monday night, 45-6 to easily cash as 3 ½-point road favorites. MVP candidate Lamar Jackson threw five touchdown passes to help lead Baltimore to its third consecutive game scoring at least 41 points. Baltimore suffered through an 0-5 ATS run from Week 2 through Week 6, but the Ravens have covered in five straight games, including the last three as a favorite.

The 49ers (10-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) are also fresh off a blowout last week as San Francisco blasted Green Bay, 37-8 to help improve its chances at the top seed in the NFC playoffs. San Francisco’s defense allowed single-digits for the fourth time this season, while eclipsing the 30-point mark for the sixth time in 2019. The Niners picked up their first cover since a Week 8 blowout of the Panthers, while their ‘over’ streak of four games ended with the ‘under’ of 48 barely cashing.

The last team to own a 10-1 record and be listed as an underdog was the 2007 Packers, who lost to the Cowboys as seven-point ‘dogs in a 37-27 setback. San Francisco has won and covered in all three opportunities as an underdog this season, even though this will be its biggest ‘dog spot. Baltimore is seeking the four-game sweep of the NFC West, while not giving up more than 17 points in any of those victories.

Best Bet: Ravens 30, 49ers 21

Browns (-2, 39) at Steelers – 1:00 PM EST

Tensions were high the last time these AFC North rivals hooked up two weeks ago in Cleveland and ended with an ugly helmet-swinging situation by Cleveland’s Myles Garrett on Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph. Garrett has been suspended for the rest of the season and Rudolph has been replaced by Devlin Hodges as Cleveland seeks the season sweep. The Browns took care of the Steelers, 21-7 the first time around as three-point favorites, capped off by two touchdown passes and a touchdown run by quarterback Baker Mayfield.

The Browns (5-6 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) picked up their third consecutive win after routing the Dolphins, 41-24 to cash as 11-point favorites. Cleveland finished off a three-game sweep of its homestand as the Browns have an opportunity to still make the playoffs after a horrendous start as they still draw the winless Bengals twice, the Cardinals, and the Ravens at home. However, the Browns have lost their last three road games and have dropped 15 consecutive visits to Heinz Field dating back to 2004.

Pittsburgh (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) is still in the Wild Card mix after taking care of Cincinnati on the road last week, 16-10 as 5 ½-point favorites. Hodges replaced an ineffective Rudolph and gave Pittsburgh the lead for good early in the third quarter on a 75-yard touchdown strike to James Washington. The Steelers have allowed 43 points in the past three games, while hitting the ‘under’ in five of the previous six contests. Pittsburgh has won three straight at Heinz Field, while covering in both opportunities as a home ‘dog this season.

Best Bet: Steelers 19, Browns 17

Raiders at Chiefs (-10 ½, 50) – 4:05 PM EST

The calendar has reached December and Oakland is still alive in the AFC West. You wouldn’t think that would be the case after the Raiders (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) were blown out by the Jets, 34-3 as three-point road favorites last Sunday. That loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Silver and Black, who fell to 0-6 on the highway after a win since Jon Gruden returned to the sidelines last season. Oakland remains one game back of Kansas City in the AFC West, as the Raiders have covered in four of the past five chances in the role of an underdog.

The Chiefs (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) are back following the bye week as Kansas City held off Los Angeles in Mexico City, 24-17 to cash as 5 ½-point favorites in Week 11. Patrick Mahomes didn’t post his usual gawdy passing numbers as he was held to 182 yards through the air, but he led the Chiefs with 59 yards rushing. Amazingly, the Chiefs are seeking consecutive wins for the first time since Weeks 2 and 3, which also coincides with the last time Kansas City covered in back-to-back games.

Kansas City dominated Oakland in the second quarter of its past meeting in Week 2 at the Black Hole as Mahomes threw four touchdown passes in that period in a 28-10 triumph. The Chiefs have won six consecutive home matchups with the Raiders and nine of the past 10 overall with Oakland since 2014. Even though the narrative on head coach Andy Reid is he is nearly unbeatable off the bye week throughout his career, the Chiefs have been listed as a double-digit favorite off the bye the last two seasons and failed to cover each time.

Best Bet: Chiefs 27, Raiders 19

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (2-3 last week, 32-28 this season)

Giants +6 ½
Ravens -6
Dolphins +10
Raiders +10
Chargers -3

Chris David (3-2 last week, 18-2 last four weeks, 32-28 this season)

Jaguars +1
Chiefs -10
Rams -3
Chargers -3
Seahawks -3

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 43 – Titans at Colts

Indianapolis has done an excellent job this season rebounding from poor offensive performances as the Colts were held to 17 points in a loss at Houston. The Colts have been limited to 20 points or fewer five times this season and in the previous four instances after a low-scoring effort, Indianapolis has scored 27, 30, 24, and 33 points, all resulting in ‘over’ plays. Tennessee has drilled the ‘over’ in all five games since Ryan Tannehill has started at quarterback, while scoring 77 points in the past two wins against Kansas City and Jacksonville.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Jacksonville is coming off three consecutive blowout losses to its three division rivals as the Jaguars return home to battle the Buccaneers. The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released the Jags as a one-point favorite on Monday, but the Bucs have been flipped to a rare road favorite as Tampa Bay is listed at -2 ½. The Buccaneers have failed to cover in the favorite role in three opportunities this season, while Tampa Bay brings in a nine-game ‘over’ streak.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Jets are fresh off three consecutive victories all in the underdog role as New York travels to Cincinnati to face the 0-11 Bengals. Now, New York is laying points on the road, which isn’t good news for a Jets’ team that is 0-2 SU/ATS when listed as a favorite in 2019. The Bengals’ offense has been dreadful all season, but Cincinnati’s defense has stepped up of late by allowing 33 points the last two weeks.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Rams and Cardinals have combined for a spectacular 14-7-1 ATS record on the season as the two NFC West rivals hook up in Arizona. Interestingly enough, Los Angeles and Arizona are each seeking their first division victory of the season as the Rams are 0-2 while the Cardinals are 0-3 within the NFC West. L.A. posted a perfect 6-0 record last season in division play, while outscoring Arizona, 65-9 in the two-game season sweep.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.


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