Betting Recap – Week 13

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Overall Notes

National Football League Week 13 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 6-9
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 7-8
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8
National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 102-67-1
Against the Spread 81-102-5
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 102-85-1
Against the Spread 81-102-5
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 92-95-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Redskins (+10.5, +450) at Panthers, 29-21
Dolphins (+10, +425) vs. Eagles, 37-31
Bills (+6.5, +250) at Cowboys (Thu.), 26-15
Broncos (+4.5, +190) vs. Chargers, 23-20

The largest favorite to cover
Chiefs (-11) vs. Raiders, 40-9
Saints (-7) at Falcons (Thu.), 26-18
Packers (-6.5) at Giants, 31-13
Buccaneers (-3) at Jaguars, 28-11

It's Happening Again!

-- The Miami Dolphins (+10) posted a 37-31 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., and the Washington Redskins (+10.5) were able to run all over the Carolina Panthers, securing a 29-21 victory. We had a pair of double-digit underdogs win outright back in Week 10 when the Dolphins and the Atlanta Falcons posted outright wins as underdogs of 11 or more points. It was the first time that had happened in the NFL since Oct. 15, 2017. Now, it has happened within the past month on two occasions. The Kansas City Chiefs (-11) were the only other double-digit favorite in the NFL in Week 13, and they humbled the visiting Oakland Raiders by a 40-9 score at Arrowhead.

Total Recall

-- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Raiders-Chiefs (49.5) and Los Angeles Rams-Arizona Cardinals (47.5), both of which went 'under'. In fact, there were six games listed with totals of 46.5, and just one of those games cashed to the 'over', and that was the New England Patriots-Houston Texans (47) game on Sunday Night Football.

On the flip side, all games with totals closing at 39.5 or less ended up hitting the 'over', sometimes rather easily. In the Thanksgiving Day early game between the Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions (37), we saw third-string QB David Blough get off to a hot start before fizzling at the end. Even so, the teams combined for 44 points and an easy 'over'. In Charlotte, the Redskins-Panthers (39) was expected to a defensive slog with rather choppy offense. However, the Redskins posted a 29-21 win for 50 total points, ending up tied as the second-highest scoring game on Sunday. Not much offense was expected in Sunday's AFC West Division slugfest between the Los Angeles Chargers-Denver Broncos (38.5). It ended up being tied late at 20-20, and a field goal at the buzzer didn't make much difference, as the over was already in the bag.

 The Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers (40) was a defensive battle which saw the home side prevail 20-13. If you're scoring at home that's four straight under results for the Yinzers, and the under is 6-1 over their past seven and 9-3 in their 12 games overall, including 2-0 vs. Cleveland this season. In addition, the Steelers are now 6-2-2 ATS across their past 10 games, and they haven't failed against the spread in consecutive weeks since opening with a pair of losses and non-covers.

The 'over' connected in the primetime matchup Sunday against New England Patriots-Houston Texans (47), and is 1-1 for the weekend pending the result of Monday's contest between the Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks. The 'over' is just 14-25 (35.9%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. 

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Panthers TE Greg Olsen (concussion) is in the league's mandated concussion protocol after being knocked from Sunday's game vs. Washington.

Looking Ahead  -- The Cincinnati Bengals picked up a win in Week 13, assuring them of not becoming the third NFL team to finish with an 0-16 record over a full season. The last team to do it was the 2017 Cleveland Browns, their opponent for Week 14. The Bengals will be on the road at FirstEnergy Stadium, and they're 8-2 ATS across their past 10 away from home. The Browns, meanwhile, are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division, although they failed to cover in a 20-13 win at Pittsburgh in Week 12. The Bengals opened as an eight-point underdog, and they're 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings and 5-0 ATS in the past five trips to Cleveland. As such, they're seeing a lot of early action.

-- The Minnesota Vikings will host the Lions in the second of two divisional meetings. The Vikings pasted the Lions 42-30 at Ford Field back in Week 7, easily covering a 2.5-point number as the 'over' (43.5) came in. The Vikings are an impressive 35-15-1 ATS in the past 51 at home, and 15-7-1 ATS in the past 23 vs. losing sides. The Lions have failed to cover the past four meetings, with the favorite 4-0 ATS in the past four. The under is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings in this series, and 6-0 in the past six battles in the Twin Cities.

-- The Panthers and Falcons do battle for the second time this season, squaring off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Falcons surprised the Panthers 29-3 in Week 11 at Charlotte as 3.5-point underdogs as the 'under' (49) easily connected. The under is 5-1 in the past six for the Falcons, and 10-2-1 in the past 13 in this series, too. Carolina is 0-4 ATS in the past four battles overall, and 5-16-2 ATS in the past 23 trips to Georgia's capital.

-- The Jets and Dolphins meet in New Jersey, and Miami is looking for the season sweep. They're 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings with the Jets, and the under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings at Met Life Stadium.

-- The Seahawks and Rams lock horns in SoCal, with Seattle looking to improve on a 6-1 ATS mark in their past seven on the road. The Rams are 12-5 ATS in the past 17 games overall, and 10-2 ATS in the past 12 vs. NFC foes. In this series the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five, the underdog has hit in four of the past five and the Seahawks are just 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to SoCal. The over is 4-0 in the previous four battles, too.

-- On Monday the New York Giants travel to meet the Eagles, reeling after a shocking loss in Miami. The G-Men are a solid 10-3 ATS in the past 13 on the road, and 7-0 ATS in their past seven on a natural grass surface. While the Eagles are just 4-9 ATS in the past 13 at home, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven overall, they are an impressive 7-3 ATS in the past 10 appearances on MNF. The under is also 7-2 in the past nine meetings at Lincoln Financial Field.

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