Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:55 AM
Total Talk - Week 15
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We're rounding the corner and heading for home in the final few weeks of the National Football League regular season. Several teams are already well eliminated from the playoff chase, and a few are only hanging on by a thread in the 'In the Hunt' list. The Thursday Night Football game between the New York Jets-Baltimore Ravens saw the 'over' connect for a second consecutive game, as the TNF results ended up 7-7 for the 2019 season (there are no more Thursday games remaining).
|2019 Total Results - Game & Halves|
The 'over/under' ended up going 8-8 for Week 14, which is usually the death knell for public bettors who tend to favor 'over' plays. Anyone chasing the 'over' on Sunday Night was in trouble, which has been the norm this season. The 'under' is now 11-4 on the SNF game, although over bettors have made inroads with a 4-3 record over the past seven installments.
We did see an uptick in the first-half last week as the 'over' went 10-6 in the first 30 minutes but once again, the scoring slowed down in the second-half and that resulted in a 9-7 mark to the low side. On the season, the 'under' has trended ahead the first-half (107-100-1), moreso in second-half (113-90-5).
In the six divisional battles in Week 14, the edge went to the 'under' yet again - including the two primetime divisional battles between the Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night and New York Giants-Philadephia Eagles on Monday night, with overtime to boot! The under is now 40-33 (54.8%) in divisional games this season.
|Divisional Game Results Week 14|
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 15 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.
Houston at Tennessee: 47 ½ to 51 ½
Atlanta at San Francisco: 45 ½ to 48 ½
Indianapolis at New Orleans (MNF): 44 to 46 ½
Cleveland at Arizona: 47 to 49
Jacksonville at Oakland: 44 ½ to 46 ½
L.A. Rams at Dallas: 47 to 48 ½
Miami at N.Y. Giants: 48 to 46 ½
New England at Cincinnati: 40 to 41 ½
Tampa Bay at Detroit: 47 ½ to 46
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 15 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Atlanta at San Francisco: Over 98%
Houston at Tennessee: Over 96%
Minnesota at L.A. Chargers: Over 95%
Cleveland at Arizona: Over 90%
Jacksonville at Oakland: Over 87%
Seattle at Carolina: Over 85%
Indianapolis at New Orleans (MNF): Over 84%
New England at Cincinnati: Under 84%
Tampa Bay at Detroit: Over 84%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (75 percent) in the Buffalo at Pittsburgh (SNF) matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Denver at Kansas City (74 percent) contest.
Handicapping Week 15
|Week 14 Total Results|
Week 15 Action
Tampa Bay at Detroit : We get an old NFC Central matchup in the Motor City on Sunday. The Lions have struggled offensively, starting third-string quarterback David Blough in the past two. The Lions started out 2-0-1 SU, but they're 1-9 SU since, mostly because their defense has been awful. They have given up at least 19 points in 11 straight games, and 32.2 points per game (PPG) across their past five games at Ford Field. The Bucs have scored 28 or more points in three straight, and five of the past six, and the defense has been shabby, too. Tampa has allowed 27 or more points on 10 separate occasions. It's no surprise the 'over' has connected in 10 of their past 11 outings.
Philadelphia at Washington: These teams haven't met since Week 1, which seems like a world ago for the Redskins. They posted 27 points in that setback in Philly, their second-highest point total of the season. The good news for the Redskins is that their defense has been much better recently, allowing 19.0 PPG across the past three after yielding 31 or more points in four of the first five games. However, the offense is still trying to find their way with rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, and they're averaging just 12.5 PPG across the past 10 outings. For the Eagles, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five on the road, but the under is 5-2 in the past seven inside the division. The under is 8-2 in Washington's past 10, and 5-1 in the past six against NFC foes.
Chicago at Green Bay: The last time these two sides met it was a 10-3 victory by the Packers at Soldier Field in the very first game of the NFL regular season back on a Thursday in Week 1. The Packers offense has improved over time, especially at home, posting 20, 24, 42, 23, 27, 27 and 21 in their seven home games this season. While the under is 4-1 in Green Bay's past five, it's been their defense which is the key. For the Bears, they have shown some signs of improvement on offense lately, posting 24 on Thanksgiving against Detroit and 31 against Dallas on Thursday night. They'll be rested and ready to go. Since that three-point stinker in Week 1 the Bears have managed 21.2 points per game in six outings at home.
Houston at Tennessee: The Texans and Titans square off in Nashville for sole possession of first place in the AFC South. Public bettors are expecting a high-scoring affair, too, as this total has been on the move from an open of 47.5 to 51.5 as of Saturday morning. The Titans offense has been on fire since making the change from QB Marcus Mariota to QB Ryan Tannehill. Under Tannehill's leadership the Titans have posted 20 or more points in seven stragiht outings, going 6-1 SU while the 'over' has cashed in each of the seven outings. The offense has been particularly strong over the past four, posting 35, 42, 41 and 42 while allowing 20 or more points in six of the past seven. For the Texans, they're averaging 24.0 PPG on offense over the past three games, while yielding 29.5 PPG across the past four defensively.
Seattle at Carolina: The Panthers looked to be turning a corner with new QB Kyle Allen, but he has crashed back to Earth, the team fired head coach Ron Rivera and the defense has forgotten how to tackle and cover pass plays. The Panthers have yielded an un-Carolina-like 40, 29, 34, 29, 24, 20, 51, 26 and 27 across their past nine. The Seahawks hit the 'over' in their first two trips into the Eastern Time Zone, averaging 30.0 PPG, but they've scored just 22.0 PPG in their past two trips east while allowing just 14.5 PPG. In Seattle's past two road games they're also averaging just 14.5 PPG.
Miami at N.Y. Giants: The Dolphins offense has actually resembled an NFL-caliber offense lately, posting 20 or more points in four straight, hitting the 'over' in three of those games. That's a far cry from earlier in the season when they were the laughingstock of the league, posting just 42 total points over their first five outings. While the offense has improved, the defense is getting worse. They have yielded 22, 31, 41 and 37 over the past four contests. On the road they have allowed 27 or more points in four of their five outings, although the under is 3-2 in Miami's five games away from home. The Giants offense has been rather impotent for most of the season, but particularly so over the past three. They're averaging just 14.7 PPG across the past three, although the 'over' is 2-1 in the past three vs. AFC East foes.
Jacksonville at Oakland: The Raiders offense was humming along in October into early November, and Oakland was looking like a potential playoff team. However, Oakland went off the rails in an embarrasing 34-3 loss at N.Y. Jets back on Nov. 24 and they're yet to recover. The Raiders have averaging just 12.5 PPG across the past four outings, hitting the 'under' in three of those games. That's despite the defense, which has yielded 34, 40 and 42 over the past three. The Jaguars won't come close to approaching those totals, as these Cats have been rather toothless themselves. The Jags have posted 10, 11, 20, 13 and 3 over their past five outings, although three of their four highest offensive totals came from Sept. 29-Oct. 20, all on the road. The defense for the Jags has been putrid lately, too, allowing 45, 28, 42, 33 and 26 across the past five.
Minnesota at L.A. Chargers: The Bolts were able to hump up on the Jags last week, posting a season-high 45 points. In fact, their previous high was 30 points back in Week 1, so it was a rather shocking offensive performance. The over is 3-1 in the past four for the Bolts, as they're averaging 26.5 PPG on offense during the span while yielding 20.8 PPG defensively. The Vikings have posted 20 or more points in five straight, but they're coming off a surprising 20-7 win against the Lions which saw the 'under' easily hit, snapping a 4-0 over run. In their three previous games vs. AFC West foes this season, the over is a perfect 3-0, avearging 28.0 PPG while yielding 21.0 PPG.
L.A. Rams at Dallas: The Cowboys head into this must-win game with just 16.0 PPG across the past three outings, hitting the under in two of the past three. The under is 3-2 in the past five games at AT&T Stadium for the Cowboys. For the Rams, the under is on a 7-1 run thanks in part to an inconsistent offense, while the defense has been back after some early-season struggles. The Rams have yielded just 12, 7, 45, 7, 17, 10 and 10 across the past seven. Those 45 points came from Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, and not many...OK, no one...has a player like him this season. Some feel QB Dak Prescott has the potential to be just as dynamic, but the Cowboys have yet to beat a team over .500 so far this season.
There are three games listed with a spread of 10 points or more for Week 15, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 41.5 to 48.5 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.
New England at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. ET): The Patriots are 'on to Cincinnati' after falling at home to the Chiefs. It's like deja vu from a few years ago. The Pats have plenty of video of the Bengals, as you likely heard of their latest video flap, which seems much ado about nothing. The Bengals have scored 19, 22, 10, 10, 13, 10, 17, 17 over their past seven, and they haven't scored more than 23 points all season. It's unlikely the six-time Super Bowl champs have to cheat to beat a one-win Bengals side. The under is 3-1 in the past four for the Bengals, and 7-3-2 over the past 12. The under is also 3-1 in the past four for the Patriots, mainly due to the offense struggling. They have posted just 16, 22, 13, 17 and 20 over the past five.
Denver at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have changed over the rookie QB Drew Lock, and suddenly they're a juggernaut on offense. They have averaging 30.5 PPG with the former Mizzou star under center. Now, he returns to the state he starred in college. The defense has allowed 19 or morep oints in four of the past five, as the 'over' is 4-1 during thye span. These teams met on Oct. 17 on a Thursday, and that's the game QB Patrick Mahomes suffered his dislocated kneecap on a quarterback sneak. You can bet that play won't happen this week at Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense has been sharp over the past three, including last week's win in New England, allowing just 14.0 PPG over the past three for a 3-0 under mark during the stretch. The 'under' is 2-0 in both of Kansas City's games as a double-digit favorite this season.
Atlanta at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. ET): The 49ers are back home and looking to keep up their good work on offense. They rolled up 48 points last week in New Orleans, and they scored 37 and 36 in their previous two games at home. A lot of the headlines for the 49ers have been made by their defense, but lately it's been the offense doing it for Frisco. Speaking of the defense, more than half of their starting defense is nicked up and in danger of missing this week's game, so there is opportunity for the Falcons. They showed signs of life by hanging a 40-burger on Carolina last week at the Mercedes-Benz Dome. The Niners have been a double-digit favorite three times, with the over cashing in each of the past two instances. The Falcons were a double-digit 'dog just once this season, a stunning 26-9 straight-up win in New Orleans on Nov. 10.
Under the Lights
Buffalo at Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Bills make their first appearance on Sunday Night Football since 2007. This one was flexed in to the SNF spot because of the playoff implications, but it might be a low-scoring game. The under is 5-1 in the past six for the Bills, as the defense has been sick lately. Buffalo is allowing just 24, 15, 3, 20, 19 and 9 over the past six. For Pittsburgh, undrafted rookie free-agent QB Devlin Hodges makes another start. He started on SNF before, a 24-17 road win against the Chargers, an 'under' result. The under is 3-0 in Hodges' three NFL starts so far, as he has posting 23, 20 and 24, while the defense has stepped up to allow just 17, 13 and 17. Pittsburgh is actually on a 5-0 under run, and the under is 10-3 in their 13 games overall, as the defense has picked up the pace with offensive stars leaving in the offense and then the remaining stars injured this season. Head coach Mike Tomlin has done an unbelievable job with this bunch.
Indianapolis at New Orleans (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Colts have hit the 'over' in three of the past four, as the defense has gone south lately. They have yielded 38 and 31 across the past two outings, while the offense is averaging 25.5 PPG across the past four. For the Saints, they're a hard team to figure. They have allowed just 18 and 17 in their past two on the road, but they were shelled for 46 at home last week, and they're allowing 35.0 PPG across the past three under the Superdome roof. One thing that remains consistent - the offense. They have posted 46, 26, 34 and 34 across the past four outings, hitting the over in three of the past four. In their only other home game against an AFC South foe they hit the over vs. Houston in Week 1, 30-28.
It wasn't a terrible Week 14, but we continue to spin tires, stuck in neutral. A result of (-$10) was rather uninspiring, as I continue to search for that elusive sweep. The deficit is down to (-$485) for the season. We'll look to keep it bounce back in Week 15, hopefully getting back in black soon before it's all over. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Tampa Bay-Detroit 46
Best Under: Cleveland-Arizona 49
Best First-Half Over: Tampa Bay-Detroit 23 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Under 48 ½ New England-Cincinnati
Over 39 ½ Jacksonville-Oakland
Over 30 Buffalo-Pittsburgh
CD's Best Bets
Chris David delivered for TT followers with a 3-0 mark in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 25-17 (60%) on the season. For this week's Podcast, CD is confident with three more selections and he's fading an inflated line, backing an offense in terrible form and once again leaning to the "Thursday Night Total" system for the other selection.
CD's Best Bets for this week are focused on the below games:
Houston at Tennessee
Chicago at Green Bay
L.A. Rams at Dallas
Listen Here as he provides his thoughts and selections starting at 38:00 of Episode 28.
Joe Williams can be reached on Twitter at @JoeWilliamsVI