Create FREE Account

Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:55 PM

Vegas Money Moves - Week 16

Editor's Note: Don't miss out on NFL Winners from Micah Roberts on VegasInsider.com this season. Click to win!

One of the most popular sides bet by respected money in Sunday’s Week 16 NFL action has been the Titans at home against the Saints.

The Saints are fighting for home field in the NFC while the Titans might already know if their playoff hopes have been wiped away if the Texans win at Tampa Bay, one of three NFL games played on Saturday.

”They took the Titans at +3 and +3 -120, so I moved it to +2 making us the lowest number in the market,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. “I skipped 2.5 just because I wanted to get to where I thought it was going quicker.”

Jason McCormick of Station Casinos and Chris Andrews at the South Point both said the Titans were one of their most bet games by sharp money.

The attraction with the Titans could simply be a matter of taking the home +3, the most key number in the NFL or it could be the Saints playing on a short week coming off an emotional game with Drew Brees passing Peyton Manning for the all-time record in TD passes.

But the possible emotions of the Titans being eliminated has to mean something to the number. We’ll see where the number goes if the Texans win Saturday, something that large money has already bet will happen.

“They bet the Texans at -2 and -2.5 and we’re at -3 (-120) now,” DiTommaso said. “I don’t get the total move in that game. They’ve been betting the Buccaneers under the past few weeks for some reason. We’re looking to stay ahead of the market at 50.5 and we’ll wait for one more large bet on it to drop it lower.”

The Buccaneers have gone over the total in 11 of their last 12 games and their defense allows 31 ppg at home, but the main driving force for the high scores has been Jameis Winston, who has thrown for over 450 yards in his last two starts. All season long Winston throws a bunch of interceptions allowing opponents several short field opportunities and then he throws three or four TD passes, and lately, he’s been winning. The Bucs have won their last four games as Winston auditions for a new contract.

“They (sharp money) laid -5.5 and -6 with the Chargers (vs. Raiders) and also -6.5 with the Broncos (vs. Lions),” DiTommaso said.

Most books have some variation of -7 with the Chargers while MGM books were holding onto -6.5 (-120) as of Friday afternoon. Both teams come in off lousy performances, and once again for the Chargers, home-field at Carson, CA, we can expect the opponent to have the home-field advantage. Expect Raider Nation to have a sea of black in the stands, for whatever that’s worth. Again, there is no home field value to the number. In fact, you could probably add +1 to the Raiders for the home-field.

The Lions have lost seven straight and are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine. The Broncos have looked good in their last three, winning two of them. The 38-24 win at Houston three weeks ago was their most impressive win of the season with the offense, defense, and special teams all playing key roles.

CG books also saw respected money come in on the Steelers (-3 at the Jets) and Bengals (-1 at Miami). “They took +1 and pick with the Bengals,” DiTommaso said. The South Point has also taken sharp bets on the Bengals.

Westgate Superbook VP Jay Kornegay has seen his most sharp wagers on the Steelers, Titans, and Eagles (+3 vs. Cowboys).

Eagles money has forced every book to move with the lowest number being Cowboys -1.5 at MGM books. If the Cowboys win, they’ll win the NFC East. It’s probably the biggest game of Carson Wentz’s NFL career.

The top four public plays are just about the same everywhere. Books will be sweating all the parlays with the Chiefs (-6 at Chicago), Saints, Ravens (-10 at Cleveland), and 49ers (-6.5 vs. Rams).

The Chiefs have won and covered their last four games, while also staying under in all four. That’s a nice two-team, side-to-total parlay at 13-to-5 odds that could be active again with the Bears solid defense and improved Chiefs' defense. But the public weight on this game is something to consider with taking the points and Bears at home. Because it’s going to be the last NFL game posted Sunday night, the risk is going to be one-sided.

“We’re going to need to beat the Chiefs Sunday night and we’ll need the Packers on Monday as well,” said DiTommaso.

The Vikings are 5.5-point home favorites Monday night against the Packers after opening -4.5.

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.


We may be compensated by the company links provided on this page. Read more

NFL News