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Dec 21, 2019

Total Talk - Week 16

Editor's Note: Don't miss out on NFL Winners from Joe Williams on VegasInsider.com this season. Click to win!

We have two more weekends remaining in the National Football League regular season before the 'real' season starts - the playoffs. The field for the postseason is starting to come together, and in the next week we'll face the specter of certain teams resting. Week 16 won't have any teams resting, but depending on the results this weekend, we might see a handful of teams holding out key elements.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 15 10-6 8-8 11-5
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 110-113-1 108-115-1 101-118-5


Bettors crushed it on the totals in Week 15, hitting the over in 10 of the 16 games. The public loves 'over' results, too. We'll see if they have nearly the same kind of success in the final two weekends of the National Football League regular season. The first half total results went 8-8 last week but the offensive units finished strong as the 'over' went 11-5 in the second-half. Through 15 weeks of action, the 'under' has trended ahead the first-half (115-108-1), and in the second-half (118-101-5)

Division Bell

In the four divisional battles in Week 15, the edge went to the 'under' once again - including the two AFC divisional matchups. The under is now 43-34 (55.8%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 15
Philadelphia at Washington Over (38.5) Philadelphia 37, Washington 27
Chicago at Green Bay Under (41) Green Bay 21, Chicago 13
Houston at Tennessee Under (50.5) Houston 24, Tennessee 21
Denver at Kansas City Under (43) Kansas City 23, Denver 3

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 16 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Arizona at Seattle: 48 ½ to 51
Oakland at L.A. Chargers: 47 to 45
Dallas at Philadelphia: 47 ½ to 46
Jacksonville at Atlanta: 46 to 47 ½ 
N.Y. Giants at Washington: 43 to 41 ½
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets: 38 ½ to 37 
 
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 16 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Jacksonville at Atlanta: Over 94%
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets: Under 93%
Oakland at L.A. Chargers: Under 92%
Baltimore at Cleveland: Under 85%
Carolina at Indianapolis: Over 84%
N.Y. Giants at Washington: Over 79%
Dallas at Philadelphia: Under 77%
Cincinnati at Miami: Over 76%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (74 percent) in the Arizona at Seattle matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in Green Bay at Minnesota (MNF) (72 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 16

Week 15 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 1-3 32-41
NFC vs. NFC 4-0 26-22
AFC vs. AFC 2-2 22-21-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-1 30-28

Week 16 Action

Jacksonville at Atlanta : The Jaguars and Falcons hook up in Atlanta in a 'pride' game, as there isn't anything on the line other than that. The Jags have posted an over in five of their past seven as an underdog, including 4-1 in the past five as a road 'dog. Jacksonville has struggle defensively, although last week they showed well allowing just 16 points. In the past six weeks they're still allowing 31.7 points per game (PPG). The Falcons are coming off an impressive win at San Francisco last week, and have shown some fight down the stretch as they try to do enough to potentially save the job of head coach Dan Quinn. The over is 4-1 in their past five as a favorite, and 4-1 in the past five against teams with a losing record. The Falcons have hit the 'over' in three of the past four overall, too, averaging 27.3 PPG while allowing 25.8 PPG.

New Orleans at Tennessee: These Saints have no issues offensively, but it's hard to know which defense is going to show up. In the past five weeks they have scored 24, 46, 26, 34 and 34. During the same span they have allowed 7, 48, 18, 31 and 17. The Jekyll and Hyde performance by the D makes it hard to play them on the total. AS you would expect, the over/under is 3-3 in their six games on the road this season, too. For the Titans, they fired out of the box defensively, but lately the defense has been susceptible to points. They have yielded 20 or more points in seven of the past eight, including last week's 24-21 loss at home to the Texans. However, that game went 'under', snapping a seven-game 'over' run for Tennessee. The 'over' has hit in each of their past two against NFC South Division foes, too, averaging 23.5 PPG while yielding 26.5 PPG, including a 27-23 win over the Bucs on Oct. 27.

 N.Y. Giants at Washington: The Giants and Redskins hook up on Sunday. These teams met back on Sept. 29, and the Redskins lost 24-3 in the rain and slop in New Jersey. QB Daniel Jones returns under center this week for the G-Men after QB Eli Manning returned under center for the past two outings. The offense rolled up 36 points last week against the Dolphins, but they're back to the rookie anyway. Intheir past two road games the 'under' has connected. For the Redskins, the 'over' cashed in their 37-27 loss against the Eagles at home, and the 'over' is 4-3 in the past seven games at FedEx Field for the 'Skins. Their offense has resembled an NFL-caliber offense lately, averaging 22.5 PPG over the past four outings. Unfortunately for Washington, the defense has allowed 26.0 PPG over the past three. The over is 7-2 in New York's past nine on the road, but the under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in D.C. and 5-1 in the past six meetings overall in this series.

Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets: The Steelers look to keep their push for an AFC wild-card playoff spot alive, and old friend RB Le'Veon Bell stands in their way. The Steelers enter this game on a 6-0 'under' run, while hitting in 11 of their 14 games overall. Points have been at a premium for the black and gold, as they're doing it with defense. Pittsburgh has posted 10, 23, 20, 16, 7 and 17 over their past six games while yielding 17, 17, 13, 10, 21 and 12 during the same span. For the Jets, they have averaged 21.5 PPG over the past two games, including 21 points against the Ravens in Baltimore last Thursday, a rare 'over' lately for Gang Green. The 'under' is 3-0 in their past three Sunday games, as they're averaging 20.7 PPG while yielding 15.3 PPG from Weeks 12 through 14.

Cincinnati at Miami: The Bengals have 'sucked for Burrow', or whatever you want to call the race for the No. 1 pick. They haven't scored more than 23 in any one game this season, and they have scored 19 or fewer points in 11 of their 14 games overall. It's no surprise that the 'under' is 8-5-1 for Cincinnati, including 6-1 in their seven games on the road. For the Dolphins, they started the season as a laughingstock, but they haven't given up and have kept working hard down the stretch, winning a few games along the way. They're on a season-high streak with five straight games of 20 or more points, although the defense continues to be rather awful. Miami has posted 20, 21, 37, 24 and 20 over the past five outings, while giving up 36, 22, 31, 41 and 37 during the same five-game span. As such, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five outings. The over is 2-1 in Miami's three games vs. AFC North clubs this season, too.

Carolina at Indianapolis: The offense of the Panthers will be a bit of an unknown this week. Rookie QB Will Grier will make his first-career start, as Carolina rolls the dice and sees what the rookie can do. Carolina has posted 24, 20, 21 and 31 over the past four weeks, as offense hasn't exactly been the issue. Defensively is where the Panthers have had trouble, yielding 30, 40, 29, 34 and 29 across the past five, with the 'over' cashing in four in a row. Indy registered just seven points in last week's game on Monday in New Orleans, as QB Jacoby Brissett looked very ordinary and the Colts almost didn't score. In their seven home games the 'over' has connected in five outings, however.

Detroit at Denver: The Broncos had been humming along with 61 total points in two games in Week 12 and 13 under rookie QB Drew Lock. However, the Broncos didn't fare very well in the snow in Kansas City, scoring just three points in a 20-point loss for the 'under'. The total is 3-3 for Denver this season, although it has cashed in two in a row in the Mile High City. The Lions have stumbled offensively under QB David Blough since Thanksgiving, posting 17, 7, 20 in his past three games. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past three road games for Detroit, too, averaging just 12.0 PPG while allowing only 19.7 PPG during the same span defensively.

Oakland at L.A. Chargers: This used to be Oakland vs. San Diego. Then for a while it was L.A. vs. San Diego. Then Oakland vs. San Diego again. This is the final Oakland vs. L.A. matchup, as soon it will be Las Vegas vs. L.A. It will take some getting used to. The Raiders have really struggled offensively, as they already look like they're dreaming of Vegas lately. They have scored 16, 21, 9, 3 and 17 across the past five outings, hitting the 'under' in four of those outings. They did hit the 'over' in a 26-24 win over the Bolts back on Nov. 7 in a Thursday night game in Oakland, however. The Bolts have hit the 'over' in three in a row, although they've taken different routes to do it. They lost last week 39-10, they won 45-10 on the road the week before, and had a narrow 23-20 loss in Week 12. Inconsistency is no surprise for the Bolts, and one of the reasons they're on the outside looking in heading to the playoffs.

Dallas at Philadelphia: The Cowboys rolled up 44 points at home against the Rams, their second straight 'over' result, as they look to keep their NFC East playoff hopes alive. This game is essentially a playoff game, as the winner likely wins the division, with the loser out in the cold. Ths first meeting between these teams resulted in a 37-10 whitewashing by the Cowboys in Jerry World back on Oct. 20, hitting the 'under' in the process. While the offense has been pretty impressive lately for the Cowboys, the defense leaves a lot to be desired. They have yielded 21, 31, 26, 13, 27 and 28 across the past six outings, and the 'over' is 5-2 in their past seven, and 7-3 in the previous 10. The 'over' is 7-1 in the past eight divisional games for the 'Boys, while the 'under' is 5-0 in the past five home games for the Eagles and 4-1 in the past five as a home 'dogs. The under is also 7-3 in the past 10 meetings in Philadelphia.

Heavy Expectations

There are two games listed with a spread of nine points or more for Week 16, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 49.5 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. ET): The Browns stunned the Ravens 40-25 back in Week 4 in Charm City, easily the finest showing of the entire season for the disppointing Browns. Don't think Baltimore forgot about it. They can clinch the AFC North and the No. 1 seed overall in the conference with a victory. They're heavily favored to do so. In their only game this season as underdog of more than a touchdown, they're 0-1 SU/ATS. The Browns have scored 24, 27, 13 and 41 over the past four outings, while yielding 38, 19, 20 and 24, hitting the 'over' in three of the four outings. For Baltimore, it's been all offense all the time, hitting for 20 or more points in every game this season. As a favorite of seven or more points, the 'over' is 4-2 for the Ravens, including 2-0 in the past two instances. The over hit in the first meeting this season between these teams, and the over is 5-1 in Baltimore's past six divisional games, and 5-1 in their past six as a road favorite, too.

Arizona at Seattle (4:25 p.m. ET): The Cardinals are huge 'dogs in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. These teams met back in Week 4, and the Seahawks came home from the desert with a 27-10 win and an 'under' result. The Cardinals have been a bit erratic lately, posting 38, 17, 7 and 25 over the past four outings, with the defense yielding 21 or more points in each of their games this season. The Seahawks have also been a bit inconsistent lately, going for 30, 12, 36 and 17 over the past four outings, so it's no surprise the over/under is 2-2 during the four-game span. Defensively, the Seahawks have allowed an un-Seattle-like 20 or more points in all but two of their games this season , including three of their four divisional games. Of course, as mentioned, the Cardinals scored just 10 in the first meeting, the second-lowest offensive total of any opponent. In games where the Seahawks are favored by 5.5 or more points, the under is 3-1 this season.

Under the Lights

Kansas City at Chicago (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Chiefs and Bears will do battle on Sunday Night Football, as even though the Bears no longer have a shot at a playoff spot, the NBC execs liked the appeal of a Patrick Mahomes-Mitchell Trubisky battle, apparently. The Bears were dusted 21-13 at Green Bay last week, and have hit the 'under' in six of their past eight outings. For Chicago, they're 2-1 in three games vs. AFC West foes this eason, and the under is 3-1 in their past four games at home, too. The Chiefs are on a 4-0 'under' run lately, as the defense has stepped up with totals of 3, 16, 9 and 17 allowed. The Bears don't figure to do much more than that. The under is 3-1 in Kansas City's past four games on the road, too, so the SNF might be a defensive slog.

Green Bay at Minnesota (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Packers and Vikings will square off at U.S. Bank Stadium in the Twin Cities in what could be an entertaining MNF battle. These teams squared off in Week 2, and it was the Pack coming away with a 21-16 win and 'under' result. The under hasn't been a frequent occurrence for the Vikings lately, as the 'over' is 5-1 in the past six games, and 7-2 in the previous nine outings. The under is 2-1 in Minnesota's past three at home, however, and the under cashed in their only other primetime home game back on Oct. 24 against the Redskins, a 19-9 win. The under is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in this series, and a perfect 5-0 in the past five meetings in the Twin Cities.

Fearless Predictions

It wasn't a terrible Week 15, but another week of breaking even. A result of (-$10) was disappointing, missing the teaser yet again, as I continue to search for that elusive sweep. The deficit is down to (-$495) for the season. We'll look to keep it going in Week 16, hopefully getting back in black soon before it's all over. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Oakland-L.A. Chargers 45
Best Under: Green Bay-Minnesota 47
Best First-Half Under: Dallas-Philadelphia 23 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Over 38 Oakland-L.A. Chargers
Under 54 Green Bay-Minnesota
Under 56 Baltimore-Cleveland

CD's Best Bets

Chris David kept his winning streak rolling with a 2-1 mark in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 27-18 (60%) on the season.  For this week's Podcast, CD offered up three quick picks on Saturday's games but kept his Best Bets for Sunday's card and that includes a confident double-up on one matchup.

CD's Best Bets for this week are focused on two games:

Jacksonville at Atlanta
Arizona at Seattle


Listen Here as he provides his thoughts and selections starting at 40:00 of Episode 30

Joe Williams can be reached on Twitter at @JoeWilliamsVI


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