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NFC Wild Card Notes

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
AFC Wild Card Notes

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

Minnesota at New Orleans

Sunday Jan. 5 (FOX, 1:05 p.m. ET)

Vikings Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Saints Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS

Opening Odds

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out New Orleans as an eight-point home favorite with a total of 46. The opening number has held steady overnight but the total has been pushed up to 47.

Head-to-Head

These teams have met three times over the last three seasons and all of those encounters took place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. The Vikings own a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS mark in those games but the numbers could be in bettor favor for the Saints if it wasn’t for the “Minneapolis Miracle” in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs. Minnesota would eventually get humbled a week later at Philadelphia while New Orleans was sent packing.

Playoff Notes

Despite the win over the Saints in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs, the Vikings haven’t had much success in the playoffs especially on the road. Minnesota is 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS in its last 10 playoff games and that includes a 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS mark on the road.

Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins has only appeared in two playoff games and he’s produced a 0-2 record both SU and ATS. He only started once for Washington and it was blasted 35-18 at home to Green Bay in the 2016 Wild Card Round.

The playoff pedigree for New Orleans was once considered a no-brainer bet but recent trends have made bettors hesitant. Since QB Drew Brees started in “The Big Easy” in 2007, the Saints have gone 8-6 SU and 6-8 ATS. Recently, the club is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS over the past two seasons and all three non-covers came at the Superdome. They could’ve easily covered a few of those game but the days of watching New Orleans ‘boat-race’ opponents at home hasn’t happened since 2012 when they routed the Lions 45-28 as 10 ½-point home favorite.

These teams met in the 2010 NFC Championship and New Orleans nipped Minnesota 31-28 in overtime. Brees and the Saints outlasted QB Brett Favre, who made a key interception late in the fourth quarter for the Vikings that cost them a chance to win the game in regulation. Two weeks later, New Orleans defeated Indianapolis 31-17 in the Super Bowl.

Total Notes

The ‘over’ went 9-7 for both the Vikings and Saints in the regular season. Normally a good ‘over’ bet at home, New Orleans saw a stalemate (4-4) at the Superdome despite the offense scoring 30-plus in six home games.

Minnesota watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 in its final eight games of the season and the ‘over’ was 5-3 on the road, which includes a run of five straight to the high side in their last five away games. During this span, the Vikings offense averaged 32.4 points per game.

New Orleans saw the ‘under’ cash in both home playoff affairs last season but that was preceded with a 5-0 ‘over’ run. Minnesota is on a 2-0 ‘over’ run in the playoffs, both results coming during its 2018 campaign. Prior to those games, the Vikings saw seven of their previous eight playoff games go ‘under’ the total.

Seattle at Philadelphia

Sunday, Jan. 5 (NBC, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Seahawks Road Record: 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS
Eagles Home Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS

Opening Odds

The SuperBook opened the Eagles -1 but the number quickly flipped to the Seahawks -1. The total was sent out at 45 ½ and that number has held steady.

Head-to-Head

These teams met in Week 12 and Seattle captured a 17-9 win over Philadelphia a two-point road favorite. Including that win, the Seahawks have won and covered five straight games against the Eagles dating back to 2011. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 4-0 all-time versus the Eagles and all four wins came by double digits and two of them occurred in the “City of Brotherly Love.” The ‘under’ has connected in all four of those games.

Playoff Notes

Seattle has gone 8-5 all-time in the postseason with Wilson at QB and that includes a 1-5 mark on the road. The ‘Hawks have dropped three straight playoff games on the road and the defense has surrendered 24, 36 and 31 points in those losses. The lone away win came in the 2016 Divisional Playoffs as Seattle nipped Minnesota 10-9 and the Vikings missed a late field goal in that decision.

Philadelphia has covered in each of its last five playoff appearances and it’s gone 4-1 SU in those games. The loss came in last year’s Divisional Playoff round at New Orleans, a 20-14 setback as an 8 ½-point road underdog. Fast Fact – The Eagles have closed as underdogs in each of those playoff matchups. The last time Philadelphia was favored in the playoffs came in 2014 when it lost 26-24 to New Orleans as a three-point home favorite in the Wild Card round.

Total Notes

As mentioned above, the ‘under’ has cashed in four straight encounters between the pair as Philadelphia was held to 12 PPG in those games.

Seattle watched the ‘over’ go 8-7-1 this season and that includes a 4-4 mark on the road. Scoring on the East Coast hasn’t been an issue for the club and we saw that this season as they averaged 26.8 PPG. Philadelphia produced an 8-8 total mark for bettors but the ‘under’ was 6-2 at Lincoln Financial Field. After allowing the Redskins and Lions to each put up 27 in Week 1 and 3 at home, the Eagles only allowed 13.3 PPG in their final six at home.

The Seahawks have watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in their last 10 road playoff games. They’ve allowed 30.3 PPG in their last three postseason trips. The Eagles saw the ‘under’ go 2-0 in their two postseason affairs last season, and the offense scored 16 and 14 against the Bears and Saints respectively. Philadelphia watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 during its Super Bowl winning season in 2018. All five of those results came with QB Nick Foles, who was backing up Carson Wentz. This will be the first playoff appearance for Wentz.

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