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Championship Notes

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
9 minute read
Odds to win Super Bowl 54 | Playoff Betting Results

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

AFC Championship
Tennessee at Kansas City

Saturday, Jan. 11 (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Titans Road Record: 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O/U
Chiefs Home Record: 6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card and Divisional Results

Tennessee: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Kansas City: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 6-1 O/U

Opening Odds

After the Chiefs rallied past the Texans in the AFC divisional round, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a 7 ½-point home favorite with a total of 52.

Head-to-Head

These teams met in Week 10 of the 2018 regular season and Tennessee shocked Kansas City, 35-32 as a five-point home underdog. Kansas City built a 10-0 advantage and led 29-20 in the fourth quarter before Tennessee came back with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns, capped off by a Ryan Tannehill touchdown strike to Adam Humphries in the final minute. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 446 yards and three touchdown passes, while Titans running back Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

Kansas City struggled against the AFC South in the regular season by losing three of four contests, but rebounded with the blowout win over Houston in the divisional round. Tennessee posted a 3-1 record against AFC West foes this season by beating Kansas City, Oakland, and Los Angeles, while getting shut out at Denver.

Playoff Notes

Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel improved to 2-0 in the postseason in his short coaching career with wins at New England and Baltimore. The defense has allowed a total of 25 points in the two playoff wins, as Tennessee dominated top-seeded Baltimore, 28-12 to advance to the franchise's first AFC championship since 2002.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid owns a 13-14 career record in the playoffs, while the Chiefs have gone 2-3 under Reid in the playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium. The first win came in last year’s Divisional Playoff round against Indianapolis (31-13). Prior to the win over the Colts last season, Kansas City had dropped six straight at home in the playoffs with the last win coming in 1994.

The Chiefs met the Titans in the 2017 Wild Card round and led Tennessee, 21-3 at halftime. However, the Titans rallied by outscoring the Chiefs, 19-0 in the second half to stun Kansas City, 22-21 as 8 ½-point road underdogs. Kansas City is playing in its second consecutive AFC championship game after falling short against New England in overtime last season.

It's been a long time for Kansas City in the Super Bowl as the franchise last made it in 1969 when the Chiefs dominated the Vikings in Super Bowl IV. Tennessee last played in a Super Bowl in 1999 as the Titans lost to the Rams, 23-16.

Total Notes

Tennessee has seen its total results produce a stalemate (5-5) on the road this season and the defense (12.5 PPG) has really stepped up in the playoffs. Since Tannehill took over at QB for the Titans, the club has scored 20-plus points in all six of their road games with him under center and that’s produced a 4-2 ‘over’ mark.

Kansas City has watched the ‘over’ go 6-3 at Arrowhead Stadium this season, which the easy high side (50 ½) ticket in the Divisional Playoffs. Including the game versus Houston, the Chiefs have hosted five playoff teams and the ‘over’ is 5-0 in those games and the defense (28.9 PPG) hasn’t been sharp.

The Chiefs have seen balanced total results (5-5) with Reid in the playoffs. Vrabel has seen the ‘under’ connect in two playoff games as coach. In the Week 10 matchup from Nashville, the pair combined for 67 points and the ‘over’ (49) rather easily but it was also helped with 41 points in the second-half.

Prior to this game, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run in this series dating back to 2014 and that includes the 2018 Wild Card matchup. In the Titans’ 22-21 upset over the Chiefs, the total closed at 44 ½.

AFC Championship Trends - AFC Betting History

  • Since 1970, home teams have posted a 34-15 record in the AFC Championship.
  • In the last 10 years, hosts have gone 8-2 (80%) in the AFC Championship. During this span, bettors have seen their fair share of close calls and blowouts as five games were decided by double digits and the other five by six points or less.
  • In the first 49 games of the AFC Championship, favorites have gone 35-14 SU and 28-20-1 ATS.
  • Favorites and Underdogs have gone 5-5 ATS in the last 10 AFC title games.
  • Since the 1986-87 AFC Championship game, the 'under' has gone 17-16 in the title game. Over the last eight seasons, the 'under' is on a 6-2 run in this conference title game.
  • Kansas City has made two appearances in the AFC title game, going 0-2 both SU and ATS.
  • Tennessee has gone 1-1 both SU and ATS in the AFC Championship, both of those contests took place on the road.

NFC Championship
Green Bay at San Francisco

Sunday, Jan. 12 (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Packers Road Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U
49ers Home Record: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card and Divisional Results

Green Bay: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U
San Francisco: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, 2-3-1 O/U

Opening Odds

Both San Francisco and Green Bay won at home in the divisional round as the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the 49ers as a 7 ½-point home favorite with a total of 45.

Head-to-Head

The 49ers rolled the Packers in a Sunday night affair in Week 12 as three-point favorites, 37-8. San Francisco built a 23-0 halftime lead as Green Bay's lone touchdown came in the third quarter on an Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass. Rodgers was limited to 104 yards passing, while 49ers' quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns, including a 61-yard scoring strike to tight end George Kittle.

That loss was that last one for Green Bay, who has won six straight games, including the blowout of Seattle in the divisional round. Since 2012, the 49ers have captured five of seven meetings with the Packers, while Green Bay has lost in three of its past four visits to the Bay Area.

The Packers are 1-4 in their last five games against NFC West opponents since 2018, while the 49ers are 2-3 since the start of last season against NFC North foes.

Playoff Notes

Green Bay won its first playoff game since 2016 in a divisional round victory over Seattle at Lambeau Field. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur improved to 1-0 in the playoffs after winning his playoff debut, while Rodgers owns a 10-7 career record in the playoffs as a starter. However, the Packers have lost their last two NFC championship games, each on the road at Seattle (2014) and Atlanta (2016). The last time Green Bay won an NFC title game on the road came in 2010 at Chicago, which also marked their most recent trip to the Super Bowl, which they won against Pittsburgh.

San Francisco dominated Minnesota in its first playoff game since the 2013-14 season in a 27-10 blowout in the divisional round. The 49ers are playing in their first NFC championship since 2013, when they lost at Seattle. San Francisco is hosting its first conference title game since 2011 when the Niners were tripped up by the Giants in overtime, 20-17.

The Packers and 49ers met in the playoffs in four consecutive seasons from 1995-1998 as Green Bay won three of four times. In 2012 and 2013, San Francisco knocked out Green Bay twice, including at home in the divisional playoffs, 45-31 in 2012. The only time these teams have hooked up in the NFC Championship came in 1997 at Candlestick Park as the Packers won, 23-10.

Total Notes

In the Week 12 meeting between the pair, the Packers were held to a season-low eight points and the the 'under' (48) was never in doubt despite San Francisco scoring 37 points. Green Bay also laid an egg in its other trip to California this season, losing 26-11 at the L.A. Chargers in Week 9.

Green Bay’s total results had a tail of two seasons as the ‘over’ started 5-3 through the first eight games but the ‘under’ produced a 7-1 mark down the stretch. Sunday's 28-23 win over Seattle watched the 'over' (45) connect.

Including the result versus the Seahawks, the Packers have watched the 'over' go 6-1 in their last seven playoff games and five of them have taken place on the road.

The Niners' 27-10 win over the Vikings in the Divisional Round watched the 'under' (44 ½) connect easily. Including that result, San Francisco has watched the ‘under’ cash in its last four playoff games.

Prior to the Minnesota outcome, San Francisco watched the ‘over’ go 7-2-1 down the stretch before starting the season with a 5-1 ‘under’ mark.

NFC Championship Trends - NFC Betting History

  • Since the NFC Championship began in 1970, home teams have posted a 32-17 record in the title game.
  • In the last 10 years, visitors have shown more fight in this title game as the home team was only able to produce a 6-4 record in the NFC Championship. Those last four wins by the road teams weren't easy as the victories came by seven points or less and three were decided by exactly three points.
  • Favorites have gone 32-17 SU and 26-22-1 ATS in the NFC Championship.
  • Since the 1987-88 NFC Championship game, the 'over' has gone 18-14 in the title game. Over the last five seasons, the 'over' is on a 4-1 run in this conference title game.
  • San Francisco has been in the NFC title game 15 times, going 6-9 overall. Surprisingly, the club has gone 4-5 at home but this will be the first NFC Championship played at Levi's Stadium. Its last trip to the NFC Championship came in the 2013-14 season and they lost to Seattle 23-17 on the road.

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