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SB Props – Cross-Sport Best Bets

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
Super Bowl 54 Prop Resources

Super Bowl 54
Cross-Sport Props - Best Bets

With the Super Bowl prop market exploding in recent years, everything offered as a prop bet has garnered even more interest. That includes these cross-sport props which are always growing in popularity. Many of the numbers are just based on scoring averages (other sports) vs yardage averages for the guys involved in the Super Bowl, but this year's cross-sport props and even ones related to next season's outcomes involving certain teams like how the Las Vegas Raiders will do are becoming more frequent.

However, being a guy that's always interested in the golf betting market in general, it's nice to see plenty of golf related props this week, and that's where I'll start with this piece, as the first prop to be discussed is one you'll have to act relatively fast on as it closes early in the morning on Thursday.

Winning Score at Phoenix Open (+40.5) vs Patrick Mahomes Gross Passing Yards (-40.5)

Heads or Tails Props
SB54 Props Odds provided per DraftKings (T&C's Apply, 21+, NJ, IN only)

This is a bet you'll have to make before the first golfer tees off on Thursday morning, but it's one where we are effectively comparing two separate props and coming to a conclusion.

The prop for the winning score at this year's Phoenix Open is O/U 265.5. With par for the course being 284, that means just solely on the golf side of things, you are looking at betting at whether or not the winner of the golf tournament will be -18 or worse (that would be 266) or -19 or better. Well, I can tell you that the last 10 winners of the event have all finished at -14 or better, so the golf number itself is a tough one to gauge.

However, relative to Patrick Mahomes passing yards, and Mahomes laying -40.5 there, it makes it rather easy to side with the golfers on Tour this week. Here is why:

For one, the worse the score for the eventual PGA winner means Mahomes has to throw for even more yards as it is, and just working off that 265.5 number should be tough enough for him. You add 40.5 yards to that 265.5 number and you get 306. Meaning, Mahomes would need about 307 passing yards for him to cover this spread in theory. Again, should the Phoenix Open winner finish with a score like -15 (or 269) that number for Mahomes climbs.

But using that 307 number as a marking point, you can go back through Mahomes game logs this year and see that he only eclipsed that number eight times in 16 games. 50% of the time isn't bad at all right. However, most of those occurrences happened at the beginning of the season, as he only topped that 307 number in passing yards three times in his last nine games, otherwise known as when he came back from his injury.

At the same time, San Francisco's defense only allowed opposing QB's to throw for 307+ against them twice in all 18 of their games this year. The 49ers will look contain Mahomes as best they can and probably take the ball out of his hands as often as they can, so you've already got plenty working against a Mahomes play with this prop. And then we can't rule out the possibility of KC playing with a lead late and looking to bleed the clock away (if they can), limiting their pass calls and keeping the clock moving by keeping the ball on the ground.

Simply put, it's a lot to ask in backing Mahomes at this spread, as you've basically got to hope that the Chiefs are playing from behind early and throughout the majority. Even then, we can look to KC's Divisional round game against Houston where they dug themselves a deep hole and were forced to chuck it around to come back, and Mahomes finished with just 321 passing yards that day. Not exactly a huge number relative to what we are dealing with here.

So give me the golfers this week in this prop, as unless one of them goes off and wins with a score of something like 260, I'm not sure Mahomes has a chance. Even then he'll need a 300-yard passing effort and that's still a number the 49ers defense has only allowed twice all year.

Best Bet: Winning score at Phoenix Open

Heads or Tails Props
SB54 Props Odds provided per DraftKings (T&C's Apply, 21+, NJ, IN only)

Patrick Reed 4th Round Score (+3.5) vs Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards (-3.5)

Reed is over in Saudi Arabia playing in the Saudi International this week, a Euro Tour event that's got quite a few big American names involved. His 4th round scoring average this year – a limited sample size – is 67.5, but if you go back to his full seasons the past two years, those numbers are 70.43 (2019) and 70.22 (2018). So, generally speaking, you can figure you need about 75 receiving yards from Hill to legitimately have a chance. Hill's prop number by itself is already in the 75.5 range.

Given that Mahomes didn't throw for huge yardage numbers down the stretch, Hill's numbers lately have been consistently below that threshold, as he hasn't had more then 72 receiving yards since the Chiefs Week 10 loss to Tennessee. Hill did manage to surpass that 75.5 number in four of his first six games played this year though.

Yet, the thing that's always working in the favor of Hill for this prop bet is the idea that it only takes one completion for him to essentially lock this wager up. One 60-70 yard bomb to him early is all it really takes, as Reed would have to completely blow up and threaten a score like 90 – which just doesn't happen for professionals – to even have a chance. I'm sure San Francisco's defense has a plan to contain Hill and prevent him from blowing the top off their defense, but how's that saying go? Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

Dealing with Hill's speed is something no team is really prepared for until they see it, and the same goes for the 49ers here. He could bust a 20-yard slant route into a 50-yard gain in an instant, and as long as that's not his only catch of the game, he'll be well on his way to covering this number vs Reed.

Finally, in terms of a game script, should the Chiefs find themselves playing from ahead most of the way, Hill's production will likely have plenty to do with building that lead. Should they find themselves playing from behind more often, well, Mahomes will be looking to air it out to Hill as often as he can to try and climb back into the contest. Either way, Hill's a guy I do expect to threaten 75+ receiving yards here, and in all likelihood that should be enough to beat Reed.

And if Patrick Reed goes off on Sunday and shoots a great round in the mid-to-low 60's, that's better news for those of us on Hill as he may not even need to crack 70 receiving yards then to cover this number.

Best Bet: Tyreek Hill -3.5



Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

  • Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
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  • Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

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