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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:54 PM

SB Props - QB Best Bets

Super Bowl 54 Prop Resources

Undecided on the Chiefs or 49ers in Super Bowl 54? Can’t figure out to play the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ next Sunday?

Fortunately for bettors on the fence, sportsbooks have increased their proposition wagers market for Super Bowl 54. Similar to past finales, a group of our top NFL experts are offering up their predictions on the most popular “props” for the finale between Kansas City and San Francisco.

This season, we’ve broken the props wagers into specific categories. “Best Bets” with analysis are provided on a handful of them as well.

Quarterback Props - Best Bets

Player Prop Odds provided by DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only 21+)
Subject to Change

We asked six VegasInsider.com experts to provide their "Best Bets" on a handful of the most popular prop wagers for the two quarterbacks squaring off in Super Bowl 54.

Kansas City Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes
San Francisco 49ers - Jimmy Garoppolo

Along with their top selections, you can also view the consensus picks from our experts.

Kevin Rogers - Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 TDs

Jimmy Garoppolo threw only one touchdown pass in the two playoff wins, but the 49ers’ quarterback put together seven multi-touchdown passing games this season.

Joe Williams - Jimmy Garoppolo Interceptions Over 0.5 (-150)

Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t likely to hoist the ball up very often, but when he does I expect at least one mistake. I am taking Tyrann Matheiu as one of my sleepers for Super Bowl MVP, and I expect the Chiefs secondary to confuse Jimmy G, and coax him into at least one interception. He had at least one pick in 10 of his 16 regular-season starts, and one of two playoff games. The only reason he didn’t have a miscue against the Packers was because the team was running so well, his attempts were few and far between.

Joe Nelson - Jimmy Garoppolo Pass Completions Under 19.5 (+100)

Garoppolo hasn’t had more than 18 completions in any of his past four games, all San Francisco wins. Only three times in 18 games did he have more than 24 completions. Garoppolo has only three touchdown passes in his past five games despite San Francisco scoring an average of more than 29 points per game in that span as this offense doesn’t need him to throw often. The Chiefs have fallen behind early in both playoff games so far and should San Francisco get a lead in this game, the plan will be to keep the ball away from Patrick Mahomes and use the ground game to keep the clock moving, particularly given the collapse of Kyle Shanahan’s offense with a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI. Garoppolo is a turnover risk with 14 interceptions this season as he’ll be only asked to throw in very safe situations unless the 49ers fall significantly behind, something they haven’t had happen all season.

Matt Blunt - Pat Mahomes Interceptions Over 0.5 (+110)

Pat Mahomes INT Over 0.5 (+110) Tough to completely discredit how good this 49ers defense is and can be, and if it is them that come out on top in this game, it will be because they fluster Mahomes and force him into mistakes. At a plus-money price tag to pick one off, I believe this is a prop that isn't properly priced, and there is too much value to pass up.

Super Bowl 54 QB Props - Consensus Picks

KC Player Props at MGM (NJ only 21+)
Subject to Change

QB Props - Jimmy Garoppolo - Consensus
Props Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams Consensus
TD Passes
Over 1.5 (-112) Under 1.5 (-112)
Under Over Under Over Over Over Over
Interceptions
Over 0.5 (-150) Under 0.5 (+120)
Over Over Over Under Over Over Over
Passing Yards
Over 240.5 (-112) Under 240.5 (-112)
Under Under Over Over Under Under Under
Pass Completions
Over 19.5 (-125) Under 19.5 (+100)
Under Under Over Over Under Under Under
Longest Completed Pass
Over 36.5 (-112) Under 36.5 (-112)
Over Under Over Under Under Under Under


QB Props - Patrick Mahomes - Consensus
Props Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams Consensus
TD Passes
Over 1.5 (-235) Under 1.5 (+183)
Over Over Over Over Over Over Over
Interceptions
Over 0.5 (+110) Under 0.5 (-137)
Over Over Over Over Over Over Over
Passing Yards
Over 299.5 (-118) Under 299.5 (-106)
Under Under Under Under Under Over Under
Pass Completions
Over 23.5 (-155) Under 23.5 (+125)
Over Over Under Under Under Over Push
Longest Completed Pass
Over 42.5 (-118) Under 42.5 (-106)
Under Over Over Under Over Over Push

Meet the VI Experts

Joe Nelson – Senior NFL writer and handicapper for VegasInsider.com. “Nelly” puts in the work and makes it looks easy.

Hank Goldberg – Staple of the industry and legendary Vegas expert. The “Hammer” has covered every Super Bowl since it began.

Matt Blunt – The VegasInsider.com genius behind our weekly “Best Bets” and also the master of data mining. His must-read SB54 pieces include analysis:

Kevin Rogers – Along with being host of the Bet and Collect Podcast, K-Rog provides his informative articles and experts picks to VI for multiple sports.

Tony Mejia – The best volume handicapper on VegasInsider.com, creator of the Antony Dinero brand. You can listen to him as a regular guest and co-host on the Bet and Collect podcast weekly.

Joe Williams – Built his chops by playing Daily Fantasy Sports and has turned that experience into sports betting profits. Provides weekly articles and picks for VI.


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