Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:54 AM

Vegas Sportsbooks change NFL future odds after Tom Brady goes to Tampa Bay

Vegas changes future odds after Bucs sign Tom Brady

The Coronavirus shut down Las Vegas, but it couldn’t stop Tom Brady from getting paid as the Buccaneers signed the star free-agent quarterback to a two-year $60 million contract which altered the odds for several Nevada sportsbooks that are still offering mobile phone wagering.

Circa Sports dropped the Buccaneers odds to win the Super Bowl from 20/1, which they had already dropped in anticipation of signing Brady, to 14/1 after it was official. The Patriots dropped from 14/1 to 25/1 as it looks like the Jarrett Stidham era now begins in New England.

It’s been a rough time for all with the virus shutting everything down, but the Brady news was kind of the jolt I needed with all the negative news surrounding us and no sports activity happening to take my mind off the dreariness.

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One of the best football players ever in the NFL just left a team he played with for 20 years who he won six Super Bowls with and was MVP in four of them and won 17 of the last 19 AFC East crowns.

What’s the motivation for leaving? The boredom of winning so easy every year? Lack of getting paid respect by the Patriots when ordinary quarterbacks made more money than him? Or how about creating his own legacy in the game with all 20 years of his success forever tied to head coach Bill Belichick.

The AFC East immediately became up for grabs with all three other teams Super Bowl odds lowered with Brady leaving the neighborhood. The Bills were dropped from 35/1 to 25/1, the Jets from 100/1 to 75/1, and the Dolphins went from 100/1 to 75/1. Fans of those three had to be thrilled to see Brady depart.

2020 NFC Opponent Analysis | 2020 AFC Opponent Analysis

Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White said the addition of Brady going to Tampa Bay isn’t that big of a jump in the rating while the dropoff at New England is much more severe.

“I’m only giving an upgrade to the Bucs one point and only half a win higher,” said White. “Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing last season and Brady won’t have James White or Julian Edelman to dump off passes to. Edelman is the best route runner and always finds a way to get open.”

Second-year man Jarrett Stidham is now the starting quarterback of the Patriots.
Second-year man Jarrett Stidham is now the starting quarterback of the Patriots. (AP)

Winston also led the league with 30 interceptions, but White likes what he has to offer and thinks some team is going to be very happy with him.

“Winston is going to be 26 years old and is still learning,” White said. “Peyton Manning threw a lot of interceptions early on and figured things out. If Winston would have stayed, he’d probably throw only 16 interceptions this season. His team was usually down and he had to sling it to make things happen.”

Winston had 21 interceptions in losses and only 9 in their wins during a 7-9 season. Part of the reason the Patriots led the league last season with a +21 turnover margin was that they threw just 9 interceptions. Most of the reason the Buccaneers had -13 turnover ratio was because of the quarterback.

Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians has to be thrilled by the idea of the quarterback maybe throwing only 10 interceptions. Brady now has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as his top receivers who both went over 1,000 yards last season and O.J. Howard at tight end. And Brady has also requested Antonio Brown to be signed to be his new Edelman.

“The big thing Winston has over Brady is arm strength and ability to get the ball way downfield to guys like Evans,” White said. “Can Brady stretch the field as much?”

White says the big adjustment he’s made has been on the Patriots.

“The drop-off is significant from Brady to Stidham,” White said. “It’s worth a 4.5-point rating drop and worth 2.7 to 3 wins.”

The Circa only moved the Patriots total from 9 over -120 to 8.5-flat, a number that offers value to the under if agreeing with White’s rating adjustments. But it was also a number Circa initially posted with knowledge Brady was departing. The Buccaneers season win total went from 8.5-flat to 9.5-flat.

We’ve got a lot of time to argue about how much better or worse teams will be regarding Brady, but I’m just glad it’s a topic we can talk about now during these tough times. Brady saves the day again.

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